We are five days into the 2023 MLB season and we are already seeing a significant uptick in offensive categories around the league which, if you know how to incorporate it, means great things for MLB DFS. Heading into the week, the average batting average and OBP were up 15 points each, stolen bases and attempts more than doubled compared to last season and we’ve seen a steady diet of home runs and runs scored every day. So how does that affect MLB DFS for today? Considering DraftKings and FanDuel haven’t changed their scoring, we’re definitely going to incorporate more steals into our lineups. As you move through today’s DFS Playbook, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, take in the daily MLB projections, follow the MLB DFS Ownership projections and maybe even take our MLB DFS Lineup Generator for a spin. With so much knowledge at your fingertips, it’s going to be tough to not see green no matter if you’re playing cash games or GPP tournaments. 

MLB DFS Playbook: April 4

MLB Weather Updates

  • Potential for a few spotty showers in ATL/STL game but nothing serious
  • Storm in the forecast for TOR/KC but not expected until late. Winds are blowing out at 20-25 mph

DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts

We’ve got an interesting mix of pitchers on the mound tonight with a few I am very comfortable locking into for this slate. For me, you can one of two ways on DraftKings – either pay up for two elite starters and find a bunch of value bats or pay up for one elite and pay down for Yusei Kikuchi. We’ll dive into his match-up in a little bit, but for now, that’s the way I’m going. On FanDuel, I love the elite starters and we’ve seen some crazy point-totals from them so far. I’m going to try a lineup where I pay down for Kikuchi, though he’s more of a mid-tier option over there, and see what bats I can fit in. As for hitters, we’ll look to get some big bats in there on top teams like the Astros and Yankees, but I definitely think we can find some value in the lefty bats of the Pirates and Rays as well as some of the less expensive Cardinals and Braves.

Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers

Top Options for Strikeouts

Best Odds for a Win

Bullpens Most Likely to Blow Your Starters’ Win & Boost Your Stacks

Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

He’s my favorite starter on the slate and given the lack of power on the Tigers, he’s probably going to be pretty chalky. The Tigers already have 57 plate appearances against lefties this season and they’ve posted a dismal .180 wOBA with a 36.8-percent strikeout rate. Valdez’ career numbers at home have been fantastic and his strikeout rate is six-percent higher at home throughout his career. Even better is that he’s not even the most expensive pitcher on the slate. 

Yusei Kikuchi, Toronto Blue Jays

After a terrible and injury-plagued 2022, Kikuchi showed up in camp with strong velocity and adjusted mechanics to put him back on-track. There are times where he can struggle with his command, but overall, the changes he’s made helped produce a 0.87 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP and 31 strikeouts over 20.2 innings. What seems to be even more exciting is that the pitch clock seems to be helping him. There’s no time to overthink things and no time to change anything mechanical. The Royals have had issues with lefties already, so this looks like a nice spot for a pay-down.

Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians

You don’t need me to tell you why you should always be targeting against Oakland, but if you need a nudge in the right direction, they’re pretty bad. They’ve averaged 3.5 runs per game so far and they have a 27.7-percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. They’re bottom-feeders, plain and simple. Bieber’s strikeout rate isn’t what it once was, but if he throws as well as he did in his first start against Seattle, the Oakland bats won’t touch him. 

Max Scherzer, New York Mets

It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that we would look at Scherzer against a Brewers lineup that is striking out against right-handers at a 24.1-percent rate (11th highest in the league) and is showing almost no power against them, as evidenced by their .089 ISO and .737 OPS. We got a quality start out of Scherzer in his debut and with the exception of Christian Yelich who is a shell of what he once was, none of the Brewers have hit him well.

Recommended DFS Hitters

Highest Expected Run Totals 

Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups

Travis d'Arnaud, C Atlanta Braves

He continues to shine as the Braves Dh and has hit safely in all four games, going 7-for-18 (.389) with four RBI this season. He’s also sporting a .446 wOBA against left-handed pitching so far this season and should have no issues with Steven Matz. If for some reason he’s not in the lineup, I’m all-in on Sean Murphy.

Gleyber Torres, 2B New York Yankees

Torres has hit safely in 3-of-4 games this season and he’s already gone deep twice this season. He’s rocking an .830 OPS and .348 wOBA against southpaws and Phillies starter Matt Strahm is going to get hit hard in this one. 

Matt Chapman, 3B Toronto Blue Jays

You have to take advantage of a white-hot start, especially when it’s a guy who has strong power potential but has also been a batting average liability in the past. Chapman has three multi-hit games and is batting .533 with a .588 OBP. The power and RBI production will come and today against Kris Bubic seems as good a place for it as any, especially with the winds blowing out.

Jordan Walker, OF St. Louis Cardinals

The top Cardinals bats are obviously in-play but if there was a time to take advantage of Walker’s price and get that power upside, it’s against Dylan Dodd today. The rookie has great stuff, but nerves will be present and he could fall victim just like Jared Shuster did. The Cardinals are crushing left-handed pitching right now so I’m shooting my shot with the soon-to-be NL Rookie of the Year.

James Outman, OF Los Angeles Dodgers

Left Dodgers bats look great tonight against German Marquez, so we’re going to throw some value in here again with Outman. Obviously he’s not going to have a 1.488 OPS against righties all year, but we’ll look for him to continue hitting well tonight.

MLB DFS Podcast & DraftKings Breakdown

 

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-