MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Thursday Playbook
Published: Sep 05, 2024
Today's early slate features just four games. But there are still some undervalued players in the pool that can make or break your day.
Take a look at our MLB DFS picks and MLB DFS projections for today's early MLB slate for September 5.
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, September 5th
MLB Weather Today, 9/5
No weather concerns for the early matchups.
Today's MLB DFS Lineup Optimizer & Generator
You'll find that the clear value for today's slate is in the outfield. There aren't a ton of amazing options in the infield. But at least we'll be able to play starters Pablo Lopez and Blake Snell in the same lineup.
Here's are the MLB DFS picks I came up with using the core plays and MLB DFS projections below:
MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Blake Snell (7.5, +100) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- Pablo Lopez (6.5, -150) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Taj Bradley (6.5, +120) vs. Minnesota Twins
- Bryan Woo (6.5, +140) vs. Oakland Athletics
Best Odds For A Win
- Bryan Woo (+100) vs. Oakland Athletics
- Hunter Brown (+105) vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Pablo Lopez (+110) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Blake Snell (+120) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Blake Snell, San Francisco Giants
Blake Snell has struck out 36.5% of batters over the last 30 days. He's also held his previous 115 batters to a .049 ISO and wOBA of .219, with 46.7% of ground balls induced and 15% of fly balls allowed. He's been excellent this season and will now take on a Diamondbacks lineup that typically isn't nearly as good against lefties.
The projected lineup has only hit. a.143 ISO and wOBA of .305 with 4.8% of walks. The only area of concern is Arizona's strikeout rate, which is only 18.4% over the last 30 days against lefties using the projected lineup. Snell could end up with a lower strikeout rate in this game. But I'd still expect a big outing from him. His MLB DFS projections are still super high.
Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins
Pablo Lopez hasn't added a high strikeout rate over the last 30 days. However, in the same 30 days, he's still walked just 3.9% of batters and has allowed a .103 ISO and woBA of .287 to his last 127 batters. In addition, Lopez has added 53.1% of ground balls and has limited teams to 20.8% of fly balls over the last month. That's why I'd strongly consider him as one of your MLB DFS picks for today's slate.
The low strikeouts are concerning. However, this season, he's still added 25.7% of strikeouts. With a game against the Rays, those strikeout numbers should jump. After all, the Rays' projected lineup has struck out 24.6% in the last 30 days. They've also hit just a .289 wOBA over the previous month against righties. Lopez has a really underrated matchup today.
Joey Estes, Oakland Athletics
Joey Estes is listed as the worst starter on the slate. But he's a sneaky play for today. The Oakland right-hander has struck out 24.1% of lefties and has only walked 1.7% of batters over the last 30 days. He's also limited line drives to 18% and will face a Mariners team that has hit just a .124 ISO and wOBA of .299 over the last month against righties. Seattle's projected lineup has even struck out 24.4% of the time and has more lefties than righties in the lineup.
Estes has held his last 116 batters to a wOBA of .278. He's a sneaky play if you're looking for a cheap pitcher in this small slate. He's got value when looking at the MLB DFS projections. However, if you're able to use Blake Snell and Pablo Lopez as your MLB DFS picks, do that first.
MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Houston Astros (5.5, +110) vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Seattle Mariners (4.5, +105) vs. Seattle Mariners
MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters
Matt Wallner, OF, Trevor Larnach, OF, Minnesota Twins
Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach are the two left-handed hitters finding success against righties over the last 30 days. Wallner has hit a .224 ISO and wOBA of .369, while Larnach has earned a .279 ISO and wOBA of .393 in the last 30 days.
Those two will take on righty Taj Bradley of the Rays. Bradley has allowed a .208 ISO and wOBA of .406 to his last 56 lefties. He's also struck out below 18% of lefties in that time and has allowed 69.2% of hard contact with 35.9% of line drives.
Beyond that, he's given up a 10.3% barrel percentage and has induced only 33.3% of ground balls against lefties in the last 30 days. You'll want to consider Wallner and Larnach.
Yordan Alvarez, OF, Jon Singleton, 1B, Houston Astros
After looking through all of the MLB DFS picks, there will be many outfield choices today. Yordan Alvarez will be the most expensive. But he'll also likely be worth it.
Alvarez has hit a .403 ISO and wOBA of .517 against his last 76 righties. Meanwhile, he'll take on rookie right-hander Rhett Lowder of the Reds. He's only thrown against ten lefties on an MLB mound, but he allowed a .365 wOBA with only 20% of strikeouts and just 4.1% of swinging strikes against them.
That is why Jon Singleton, Houston's first baseman, was also a play. Singleton has hit a .323 ISO and wOBA of .438 against his last 40 righties this season.
Mike Yastrzemski, OF, San Francisco Giants
The Diamondbacks will throw Merrill Kelly today. Kelly has also been abysmal against left-handed hitters over the last 30 days. Kelly has allowed a .347 ISO and wOBA of .423 to his last 57 lefties.
He's also allowed 64.4% of hard contact and 40% of fly balls, with only 28.9% of ground balls induced over the last month. Furthermore, Kelly has allowed a 20% barrel percentage to lefties in the last month and has earned just 4.4% of swinging strikes to his previous 57 lefties.
Meanwhile, Mike Yastrzemski has hit a .274 ISO and woBA of .331 with only 17.6% of strikeouts against his last 68 righties. He's the best lefty in the San Francisco lineup today, but consider Grant McCray and Michael Conforto as other options against Kelly as left-handed hitters with power. Any MLB DFS picks against Merrill Kelly right now will be good.
Player Pool
| $ Tier | SP | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High |  Blake Snell  $10,300 |  Cal Raleigh $3,200 |  Brandon Lowe $3,200 |  Royce Lewis $3,500 |  Elly De La Cruz $4,200 |  Yordan Alvarez $3,900 | |
| Yainer Diaz $3,200 |  Matt Chapman $3,200 |  Brent Rooker $3,900 | |||||
| Heliot Ramos $3,300 | |||||||
| Medium | Pablo López $9,900 | Tyler Stephenson $3,100 | Jorge Polanco $2,900 |  Alex Bregman $3,100 | TJ Friedl $3,100 | ||
| Shea Langeliers $2,800 | Junior Caminero $2,900 | Michael Conforto $3,000 | |||||
| Luke Raley $3,000 | |||||||
| JJ Bleday $2,900 | |||||||
| Low | Joey Estes $7,400 | Jon Singleton $2,500 | Zack Gelof $2,900 | Jeremy Peña $3,100 | Trevor Larnach $3,000 | ||
| Edouard Julien $2,500 | Matt Wallner $3,100 | ||||||
| Grant McCray $2,900 | |||||||
| Mike Yastrzemski $2,800 | |||||||
 Jason Heyward $2,700 |
Stacks
| Twins | Royce Lewis | Trevor Larnach | Matt Wallner | Edouard Julien |
 DraftKings | 5400 | 3000 | 3700 | 2700 |
| Fanduel | 3500 | 3000 | 3100 | 2500 |
| Astros | Alex Bregman | Jeremy Peña | Yainer Diaz | Jon Singleton | Yordan Alvarez |
| DraftKings | 4800 | 3900 | 4600 | 2400 | 6100 |
| Fanduel | 3100 | 3100 | 3200 | 2500 | 3900 |
| Giants | Mike Yastrzemski | Matt Chapman | Grant McCray | Heliot Ramos | Michael Conforto |
| DraftKings | 3000 | 4900 | 2800 | 4600 | 4000 |
| Fanduel | 2800 | 3200 | 2900 | 3300 | 3000 |
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.