MLB DFS Picks & Playbook For Today’s Games: Tuesday, May 7
Published: May 07, 2024
It's Tuesday, which typically means we get a full slate of games in the MLB.
We'll be eying the slate's later portion, which includes Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers. Ohtani just hit his league-leading 11th home run of the season last night and is now hitting .370 with a 1.139 OPS.
With Ohtani not pitching this season, he's seemingly been able to focus more on his hitting. Ohtani has been on a tear, hitting four home runs and eight RBIs in the last four games while hitting an OPS of 2.189 in those four games.
Enjoy Ohtani while you can, it'll be hard to find another like him in the future.
However, his matchup isn't as excited today, going up against Miami's Edward Cabrera.
That said, check out today's MLB playbook below before you get your lineups in on DraftKings and FanDuel as we present our MLB DFS picks for today, May 7th!
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, May 7
MLB Weather Today, 5/7
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves:
- There could be some light rain during the game, but it likely won't be heavy enough to cause a delay.
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs:
- This game may be delayed. But once the game begins, there will be no interruptions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins:
- A few showers and storms could be early, pushing this game back a little. But eventually, the game will play and likely won't be interrupted when it starts.
MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
On paper, this doesn't seem like a night when we'll score a lot of runs in multiple games. However, there are plenty of good pitchers on the slate, which could make for some low-scoring affairs.
Keep that in mind when building your lineups. There will likely be a lower-tier pitcher (or two) that put up very quality numbers.
Guys like Jose Butto and Bailey Ober face lineups that have really struggled lately. Butto has had more success with strikeouts, while Ober has been much better at limiting walks. Don't be afraid to play either of these pitchers if that means building a better lineup tonight.
Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Bailey Ober (6.5, +125) vs. Seattle Mariners
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6.5, -110) vs. Miami Marlins
- Luis Gil (5.5, -140) vs. Houston Astros
- Renaldo Lopez (5.5, -125) vs. Boston Red Sox
- Kyle Harrison (5.5, -115) vs. Colorado Rockies
Best Odds For A Win
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (-105) vs. Miami Marlins
- Shota Imanaga (+115) vs. San Diego Padres
- Kyle Harrison (+145) vs. Colorado Rockies
- Seth Lugo (+150) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
- Bailey Ober (+165) vs. Seattle Mariners
- Justin Verlander (+165) vs. New York Yankees
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has the best matchup on the board. He's struck out more than 30% of batters this season and has held opponents to a .138 ISO and wOBA of .258. He's even kept walks down to 5.3% on the year.
Although he's still allowed a high rate of line drives, it's unlikely the Marlins will even make solid contact.
Miami's projected lineup has only hit a .148 ISO and wOBA of .295 with 21.4% of strikeouts and 7.3% of walks. Only Bryan De La Cruz and Jake Burger have convincing numbers against righties.
Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves
Reynaldo Lopez has held batters to a .105 ISO and wOBA of .252, with 27% strikeouts and 8.7% walks this season.
The right-hander has also limited line drives to 17.6% and has earned nearly 45% of ground balls this year.
He's in line to face a Red Sox projected lineup that has only hit a .168 ISO and wOBa of .299. Boston's lineup has struck out 21.1% of the time and has earned just 5.5% of walks against righties this season.
Ultimately, the bottom half of the Red Sox order has been hot garbage to begin the season. Lopez should be able to pad his stats against that portion of the lineup.
Kutter Crawford, Boston Red Sox
Normally, I wouldn't even consider backing a pitcher against the Red Sox. However, Kutter Crawford has added 24.2% of strikeouts this season. He's also allowed just a .060 ISO and wOBA of .242 with 7.9% of walks.
In addition, Crawford has held teams to 25.2% of fly balls and 20.7% of line drives. All of those stats are above average for pitchers this season.
Meanwhile, he'll face a Braves lineup that really doesn't have much power this season. Atlanta's projected lineup has hit a .155 ISO and wOBA of .332 against righties. Only Marcell Ozuna has hit a high ISO of above .173. Plus, the Braves have five batters striking out at least 25.4% of the time against righties.
Crawford could be a sneaky selection that few DFS players will take a chance on.
Jose Butto, New York Mets
Jose Butto will start for the Mets tonight. He's pitching against a Cardinals lineup that has only hit a .118 ISO and wOBA of .299 against righties since last year.
Furthermore, the Cardinals' projected lineup has struck out 24.3% of the time against righties, including four batters with strikeout rates above 26%.
Butto has struck out 27.4% of batters and held teams to a .126 ISO and wOBA of .272. He'll need to limit walks, but that should happen against a St. Louis lineup that has only walked 9.4% of the time against righties this year.
Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins
Bailey Ober of the Twins hasn't been elite by any stretch of the imagination. However, he's facing a Mariners lineup that has hit just a .140 ISO and wOBA of .302 with nearly 29% of strikeouts against righties this season.
Only Josh Rojas has quality numbers against righties in that lineup. Other than Rojas, the Mariners have no batter hitting an ISO of above .193 against righties and only one batter hitting a wOBA of .310 or better.
Ober has only struck out 22.4% of batters this season. However, he's still held teams to a .302 wOBA. That's due to his dominance against lefties, where he's struck out 22.8% of batters and has carried them to 22.5% of fly balls.
Ober should end up facing lefties in half of the Seattle lineup.
Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- San Francisco Giants (5.5, -120) vs. Colorado Rockies
- Chicago Cubs (4.5, -125) vs. San Diego Padres
- Los Angeles Dodgers (4.5, -120) vs. Miami Marlins
- Atlanta Braves (4.5, -115) vs. Boston Red Sox
- Kansas City Royals (4.5, -115) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
- Milwaukee Brewers (4.5, -105) vs. Kansas City Royals
Core MLB DFS Hitters
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Michael Massey, 2B, MJ Melendez, OF, Kansas City Royals
The Royals will take on Colin Rea of the Milwaukee Brewers. Rea is a right-hander who has had some struggles against lefties over the last couple of seasons.
Last year, Rea allowed a .251 ISO and wOBA of .351 to 247 lefties. He also struck out just 19.4% of them. This year, it's more of the same. Rea has given up a .195 ISO and wOBA of .335 with only 14.1% of strikeouts against lefties.
Lefties have hit 46.2% of hard contact with 26.2% of line drives and 27.7% of fly balls.
Therefore, we'll stack the Royals' lefties. Vinnie Pasquantino has already hit a .207 ISO and wOBA of .340 with 9.6% of strikeouts against righties this year. On the other hand, Michael Massey has slugged a .220 ISO and wOBA of .377 against righties. He's also struck out only 9.5% of the time.
Finally, M.J. Melendez has hit a .214 ISO against his first 92 righties this year.
Ryan Jeffers, C, Minnesota Twins
The Twins have many capable left-handed bats against righties. The issue is that they're facing Emerson Hancock, who has reverse splits as a right-handed pitcher.
Hancock has held lefties to a .053 ISO and wOBA of .263 this year, but he's seen righties hit a .300 ISO and wOBA of .400 against him.
Therefore, we're going to look at Ryan Jeffers in this game. He's one of three righties likely to be featured in the Minnesota lineup tonight. Jeffers has hit a .289 ISO and wOBA of .405 against righties with only 18% of strikeouts this season, despite being a right-handed bat.
Beyond that, Jeffers has hit 29% of fly balls, 27.4% of line drives, and has a near .300 BABIP against righties.
Mike Tauchman, OF, Michael Busch, 1B, Chicago Cubs
Randy Vasquez hasn't faced many left-handed hitters this year. In fact, of the 37 batters he's faced, only nine of them have been lefties.
However, those nine lefties have hit a .714 ISO and wOBA of .870 with no strikeouts.
Vasquez faced 80 lefties last season and only added 12.5% of strikeouts, giving up a .221 ISO to those 80 lefties.
Therefore, we will want to stack the lefties in the Chicago lineup.
Mike Tacuhman is coming into this game, hitting a .192 ISO and wOBA of .383 against righties. He's also struck out 18.2% of the time and has walked 18.2% of the time. Tauchman is patient and can create havoc on the basepaths.
Meanwhile, Michael Busch has slugged a .240 ISO and wOBA of .358 against righties this season. While he's struck out about one time every three at-bats against righties, Vasquez isn't much of a strikeout threat. That gives Busch the advantage because if he puts the ball in play, it's typically a fly ball with a high barrel percentage.
Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
After getting the night off yesterday, Pete Alonso should be rejuvenated for tonight's matchup against Miles Mikolas.
Alonso even shaved his beard for a reset, as he's been in a major slump recently. Despite his slump, Alonso has still hit a .178 ISO and wOBA of .311 with only 19% strikeouts.
He'll face Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals tonight, who has allowed a .260 ISO and wOBA of .393 to 80 righties this season.
Alonso is the big right-handed power bat in the Mets order, who easily has the best matchup on the New York lineup.
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