MLB DFS Picks & Playbook For Today’s Games: Sunday, May 5
Published: May 05, 2024
With many rubber matches to close out Sunday, there are plenty of exciting matchups and directions to lean with today's MLB DFS slate.
The games start early today, so let's waste no more time!
Check out today's MLB playbook below before you get your lineups in on DraftKings and FanDuel as we present our MLB DFS picks for today, May 5th!
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, May 5
MLB Weather Today, 5/5
- Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates:
- A few storms are coming in Pittsburgh, but the consensus is that this game will be played (with a chance of a delay).
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals:
- This game may start late. However, an in-game delay won't be likely once this game begins.
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees:
- This is the one game with a legitimate chance of being postponed, as rain is forecast from noon to 8:00 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
When looking at all the matchups, there aren't a ton of great matchups for hitters today.
Only two teams have team total odds of 4.5. However, one of the two teams has +114 odds to reach five runs.
Make sure you add the core hitters to your lineup before anything else. There are probably going to be many solid starting pitchers on the slate, but there just might not be a whole lot of offense.
Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Freddy Peralta (7.5, +105) vs. Chicago Cubs
- Joe Ryan (7.5, +110) vs. Boston Red Sox
- Nestor Cortes (6.5, +135) vs. Detroit Tigers
- Ryan Pepiot (6.5, +135) vs. New York Mets
- Tarik Skubal (5.5, -160) vs. New York Yankees
- Garrett Crochet (5.5, -135) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Best Odds For A Win
- Joe Ryan (+100) vs. Boston Red Sox
- Ryan Pepiot (+160) vs. New York Mets
- Jon Gray (+140) vs. Kansas City Royals
- Freddy Peralta (+155) vs. Chicago Cubs
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
Joe Ryan is the best pitcher on the slate.
Ryan has already struck out 29.5% of batters while limiting walks to 3.6%. While he's allowed some power to righties, Ryan is facing a Red Sox lineup that has only hit a .169 ISO against righties since last season.
The righties in the Boston lineup have also combined for just a .167 ISO and wOBA of .306 with 28.7% of strikeouts. So it's unlikely he'll give up lots of power to the Red Sox tonight.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox have also struck out nearly 25% of the time against righties since last season. That's why Ryan is most likely to earn the most strikeouts and a win in this slate.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
If you had to choose between Freddy Peralta and Joe Ryan, I'd go with Joe Ryan. However, Peralta is the next best on the slate.
Peralta has struck out 34.1% of batters and held teams to a 128 ISO and wOBA of .249. He's also limited walks to 6.8% and has allowed only 14.9% of line drives to 132 batters this season.
The Chicago lineup has more power potential. However, the Cubs have still been average, hitting a .171 ISO against righties since last season. Chicago should have five batters in the lineup with high strikeout rates against righties, which will only help Peralta rack up the strikeouts.
Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox
Garrett Crochet has already struck out about 33% of batters this season. He's also limited teams to 6.3% of walks and has allowed only 18.8% of line drives to begin the year.
Crochet hasn't been super dominant against righties, allowing a .243 ISO. However, the righties in the St. Louis Cardinals' order have hit a .142 ISO and wOBA of .308 against Crochet.
Only Willson Contreras, a righty, really stands out against Crochet, hitting a .246 ISO and wOBA of .407. The rest of the lineup doesn't match up well on paper.
With high strikeouts and the potential to get through five or six innings with under three runs, Crochet is a solid low or mid-tier target for your lineup.
Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies
Ryan Feltner has some potential if you're comfortable playing a pitcher in the Rockies-Pirates game.
Feltner has struck out 22.8% of batters this season while holding teams to 6.9% of walks and a .144 ISO.
Feltner has also induced 47% of ground balls while limiting teams to 24% of fly balls and 19% of line drives.
Meanwhile, the Pirates' projected order has struck out 26.1% of the time against righties since last year. The lineup has also hit a .159 ISO and wOBA of .320. As long as Feltner keeps his walks down, he should have no problems pitching well against this Pirates lineup.
Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Texas Rangers (4.5, -105) vs. Kansas City Royals
- Minnesota Twins (4.5, +114) vs. Boston Red Sox
- Pittsburgh Pirates (3.5, -150) vs. Colorado Rockies
- Cleveland Guardians (3.5, -145) vs. Los Angeles Angels
- St. Louis Cardinals (3.5, -145) vs. Chicago White Sox
- Houston Astros (3.5, -140) vs. Seattle Mariners
- Toronto Blue Jays (3.5, -140) vs. Washington Nationals
Core MLB DFS Hitters
Jose Ramirez, 3B, Josh Naylor, 1B, Bo Naylor, C, Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians are in line to face Griffin Canning of the Los Angeles Angels. Canning's strikeout rate has taken a hit since last season.
Last year, Canning struck out 26% of batters. However, this season, against his first 133 batters, he's struck out only 15.8%.
Against lefties, Canning has struck out 18.1%, which is higher than righties. However, he's also allowed a .229 ISO and wOBA of .392 to his first 83 lefties faced. Lefty opponents have hit 32.8% of fly balls with under 40% of ground balls against Canning this season.
Meanwhile, the Guardians will have three power lefties against Canning. That's Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Bo Naylor.
Since last season, Ramirez has hit a .173 ISO and wOBA of .350 against righties. He's also struck out only 10.5% of the time.
On the other hand, Josh Naylor has a .192 ISO and a wOBA of .359, with only 14.4% of strikeouts against righties since last season.
Since last season, Bo Naylor has struck out 26.6% of the time against righties. He's also hit a .213 ISO and woBa of .344 with 13.5% of walks.
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Kansas City Royals
It'll be Jon Gray on the mound for the Rangers. The right-hander has allowed a .172 ISO and wOBA of .344 despite adding 25.8% of strikeouts against lefties this season.
Gray has allowed 61% of hard contact to lefties and has given up 29.3% of fly balls to begin the season.
He'll face Vinnie Pasquantino of the Royals, a lefty who has hit a .214 ISO and wOBA of .338 against righties since last season. Pasquantino has also limited strikeouts to 11.6% against righties while hitting a 54.9% hard-hit rate with 30.4% of fly balls and 25% of line drives.
Pasquantino is in a good spot today.
Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers
Daniel Lynch is in line to make his season debut today for the Royals. Lynch is a left-handed pitcher who allowed a .213 ISO and wOBA of .317 to 191 righties last season.
Lynch also gave up 35.6% of fly balls to righties and only struck out 15.7% of them last season.
Today, he'll take on Adolis Garcia, who absolutely destroys left-handed pitching. Since last year, Garcia has hit a .264 ISO and wOBA of .387 with 13.8% of walks against lefties. Garcia has also hit a 55.2% hard contact rate and has a 14.7% barrel percentage with 32.8% of fly balls and over 24% of line drives against lefties.
We don't have Lynch's stats this year, but his stats last year suggest Garcia should be in line for a big performance.
Jorge Polanco, 2B, Seattle Mariners
Jorge Polanco is a switch-hitter who will bat from the left side today.
Polanco has hit a .203 ISO and wOBA of .333 against righties since last season. While he's walked 14.2% of the time against righties, he's also hit 39.7% of fly balls with only 32% of ground balls against his last 352 righties.
Polanco has also hit 57.2% of hard contact with a 14.9% barrel percentage. That barrel percentage leads the Mariners against righties. Yes, even over Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Mitch Garver.
He'll take on Hunter Brown of the Astros, who has allowed a .228 ISO and wOBA of .449 to his first 115 batters faced. Brown has also allowed a .217 ISO and wOBA of .404 to his first 68 lefties and a .228 ISO and wOBA of .449 overall to begin the year.
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