MLB DFS Picks & Playbook For Today’s Games: Sunday, June 30th
![Randy Arozarena MLB DFS June 30](https://d29m18w01sxjzp.cloudfront.net/thumbnails/source/fatest/GettyImages-2157140771-1000x600.jpg)
Published: Jun 30, 2024
There are so many aces taking the mound for the early slate! I'll mention which ace is my favorite and which ones to avoid. I'll also provide some of the best hitting options for tonight's slate.
Therefore, make sure to check out today's MLB playbook below before you get your lineups in on DraftKings and FanDuel as we present our MLB DFS picks for today, June 30th!
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, June 30
MLB Weather Today, 6/30
There could be a line of storms in the mid-to-late portion of the game. Eventually, the game will finish, even if it goes into a delay.
There could be a storm headed to Philadelphia, but it's unlikely at this time.
If anything, storms probably won't come until after this game is over.
MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
I'd suggest creating your lineups around Garrett Crochet as your No. 1 starter. He's got the potential to add 10+ strikeouts and ultimately limit damage against a Rockies team that really struggles to hit lefties.
Meanwhile, there are plenty of good options for your position players in your lineups from high-tier to low-tier. I'd roll with the high-tier pitching and wouldn't try to squeeze in low-tier guys at the pitching spot.
But if you must, Logan Allen has a very interesting matchup and could at least provide value at his price point.
Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Garrett Crochet (8.5, +125) vs. Colorado Rockies
- Freddy Peralta (7.5, -105) vs. Chicago Cubs
- Hunter Greene (6.5, +110) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Kevin Gausman (5.5, -140) vs. New York Yankees
Best Odds For A Win
- Garrett Crochet (+105) vs. Colorado Rockies
- Seth Lugo (+105) vs. Cleveland Guardians
- Taj Bradley (+115) vs. Washington Nationals
- Freddy Peralta (+125) vs. Chicago Cubs
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies
Ranger Suarez is certainly one of the best pitchers on the slate. He's probably not the best, but you'll want to consider him.
Suarez has held teams to a .114 ISO and wOBA of .305 over the last 30 days. He's also forced 54.2% of ground balls against his previous 109 batters and has allowed only 15.7% of flu balls in the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, he'll take on a Marlins projected lineup that has hit a .080 ISO and wOBA of .232 over the last 30 days against lefties. Miami's only getting quality at-bats from Bryan De La Cruz and Josh Bell against lefties right now.
While Suarez doesn't have the highest strikeout rate, he's got a lot of potential against this Marlins lineup tonight. I'd expect at least a quality start for Suarez.
Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox will pitch lefty Garrett Crochet today against the Rockies. The good news here is that the White Sox are home. He's not pitching in Coors Field.
That said, he'll take on a Rockies lineup that has struck out 30.7% of the time against lefties over the last 30 days. Eight batters in the projected lineup have struck out at least 25% of the time.
All nine batters have struck out at least 22.2% of the time.
Meanwhile, Crochet has struck out 36.9% of batters over the last 30 days and has held opponents to a .061 ISO and wOBA of .243.
While the Rockies do have some good power numbers, it's a little inflated from playing in Coors Field.
Secondly, power numbers don't matter if you can't get the wood on the ball.
Crochet is my favorite pitcher for today's slate. He could finish with double-digit strikeouts.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
Freddy Peralta has struck out 31% of batters this season. He's also limited opponents to a .137 ISO and wOBA of .293 this year.
He's been really good and should have no problems adding strikeouts against the Cubs today.
After all, the Cubs have struck out nearly 26% of the time against righties over the last 30 days. There are literally six targets in Chicago's lineup, with at least 23% of strikeouts against righties in that time frame.
In the Cubs' lineup, five batters are hitting an ISO of no better than .102 over the last month against righties. That's good news for Peralta.
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
Hunter Greene has struggled against right-handed batters over the last month. He's allowed a .283 ISO and wOBA of .389 to his previous 66 righties.
But he might be able to escape those poor numbers today. He'll take on a Cardinals lineup that will have four righties in it. Those four righties combined hit a .085 ISO and wOBA of .265, with 27% strikeouts.
If Greene does well against the righties, he'll be in for a big day. He's also held lefties to a .120 ISO and wOBA of .240 with 31.6% of strikeouts.
The Cardinals' projected lineup has struck out 24.5% of the time against righties and has only hit a .297 wOBA.
Greene could be the most valuable pitcher on the slate at a mid-tier price.
Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians
There won't be many Logan Allen backers on the DFS slate today. It would make sense. Ultimately, Allen has allowed a .347 ISO and wOBA of .418 to 87 batters over the last month.
With that said, Allen is facing a Royals lineup that has hit a .071 ISO and wOBA of .257 over the last month against lefties. Only Nick Loftin has hit a high ISO and wOBA against lefties in this Royals lineup in the previous 30 days.
Bobby Witt literally has a .000 ISO against lefties over the last 30 days.
That's something to think about. Allen's stats aren't good, but the Royals bats have been awful against lefties over the last 30 days.
Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Boston Red Sox (5.5, +114) vs. San Diego Padres
- San Diego Padres (4.5, -140) vs. Boston Red Sox
- Philadelphia Phillies (4.5, -130) vs. Miami Marlins
- New York Mets (4.5, -115) vs. Houston Astros
Core MLB DFS Hitters
Brandon Marsh, OF, David Dahl, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
It's not Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, but the Phillies still have two lefties that can do damage today.
They're facing Yonny Chirinos of the Marlins, who has allowed a .238 ISO and wOBA of .404 with only 18.2% of strikeouts against lefties over the last month.
He's ultimately allowed 41.2% of fly balls and has only earned 41.2% of ground balls against lefties this month.
Meanwhile, Brandon Marsh has slugged a .176 ISO and wOBA of .415 with 19% of walks against righties in the last 30 days. David Dahl has also hit a .289 ISO and wOBA of .367 with just 19.5% of strikeouts against righties.
These two lefties have some real power potential against Chirinos today.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
Do we dare fade Gerrit Cole today?
Since returning, Cole has faced 37 batters and has allowed a .643 ISO and wOBA of .545 against 17 righties.
He'll take on Vladimir Guerrero, who has socked a .256 ISO and wOBA of .370 with only 15.1% of strikeouts against righties in the last 30 days.
The numbers point to Vlad today!
Randy Arozarena, OF, Jose Siri, OF, Jose Caballero, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
It never gets old, fading Patrick Corbin. Corbin is a lefty pitcher with only 18% of strikeouts against righties in the last month. He's also allowed a .173 ISO and wOBA of .333 with just 41.9% of ground balls induced against righties in the previous 30 days.
Corbin has also allowed 30.6% of line drives to righties and has walked more than 10% in the last 30 days.
Unfortunately for Corbin, he'll take on a Rays lineup that will likely have nine righties. The three righties who have performed well lately against lefties include Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri, and Jose Caballero.
Arozarena has smashed a .250 ISO and wOBA of .407 with only 11.5% of strikeouts and 19.2% of walks against lefties in the last 30 days.
Jose Siri has slugged a .391 ISO and wOBA of .474. He has higher strikeouts and fewer walks but has also hit 37.5% of line drives against lefties in the last 30 days.
There's also Jose Caballero, who has similar stats to Siri. He's hit a .385 ISO and wOBA of .463 against lefties over the last 30 days. His strikeout rate is high, and his walk rate is low, but he's also hit 50% hard contact with a 25% barrel percentage against lefties.
Nick Loftin, 3B, Kansas City Royals
I mentioned that you'll want to consider Logan Allen as a low-tier play. He's facing a Royals lineup that has struggled badly against lefties.
However, I also mentioned Nick Loftin is the one hitter that can take advantage of Allen. Loftin has hit a .250 ISO and wOBA of .429 with only 6.2% of strikeouts against his last 16 lefties.
He's also hit 25% of line drives and has limited ground balls to 41.7% against lefties over the last 30 days.
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