MLB Best Bets Today, 6/17: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Tuesday
Welcome back to another round of MLB Best Bets Today as the 2025 baseball season rolls on.
Tuesday’s baseball slate is another loaded one with 15 games on the MLB schedule and every team in action. There are many ways to go for our top MLB picks and predictions, with games going on all day. Let’s focus on two games for our MLB best bets today before dishing out a few baseball player props and other picks to consider.
Keep in mind, some of these odds or lines could move before first pitch. All bets below are for one unit unless otherwise noted. Without further ado, let’s dive into our MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 6/17
Our MLB Best Bets Today feature Rafael Devers and the San Francisco Giants hosting the Cleveland Guardians. We’ll also dive into MLB picks for the Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers matchup. Plus, as always, don’t miss some top MLB player prop bets below. Check out these MLB predictions to make as you enjoy Tuesday’s baseball action.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers Predictions: Tuesday, June 17th
Our MLB Best Bets today start off with an interleague matchup as the Detroit Tigers host the Pittsburgh Pirates. This is a prime bounce-back spot to target the Tigers at home after losing their past two games. Plus, fading the Pirates on the road has been profitable this year.
Detroit is 18-8 straight-up after a loss this season (69%), winning by 2+ runs in 16 of those 26 games following a loss (61%). Plus, after getting swept by the Dodgers on Opening Weekend, the Tigers have only had one three-game losing streak since. Avoiding losing streaks is why this team is one of the league’s best.
Tigers starter Casey Mize boasts a 2.95 ERA this season and gets to face a bottom-tier Pirates offense. Mize has admittedly looked shaky in recent starts, but those issues have also come on the road. Meanwhile, he owns a 1.54 ERA with a .269 wOBA allowed at home. Compare that to a 3.82 ERA and .338 wOBA on the road.
The Detroit right-hander has clearly been more comfortable at home. Mize has allowed only one earned run in each of his four home starts thus far. As for the Pirates, they’re averaging just 2.3 runs per game over the past six games and 2.9 runs over the past 13 games.
Pittsburgh has one of the worst road offenses in the majors, ranking 29th in road batting average, wOBA, OPS, and wRC+ this year. The Pirates also have poor numbers vs. right-handed pitching, with a .294 wOBA (29th), 84 wRC+ (28th), .656 OPS (29th), and .232 BA (27th). It’s a good matchup for Mize to be effective in.
On the other side, Pirates starter Bailey Falter has a solid 3.36 ERA and 1.12 WHIP this season. Yet, he also has some worrisome advanced stats. The lefty’s 15.4% K rate (6th percentile) and 16.8% whiff rate (2nd) are very low. Meanwhile, his 43.5% hard-hit rate and 8.4% walk rate are both career-high marks.
Falter has usually been worse on the road, too. He has a 3.99 ERA and .332 wOBA allowed in his away starts, compared to a 2.96 ERA and .255 wOBA at home. Plus, the last time he faced a tough offense, Falter coughed up 4 runs in just 3.2 innings against the Phillies earlier this month.
Today presents a tough matchup for Falter. The Tigers are hitting left-handers well this season with a .342 wOBA (3rd in MLB), 123 wRC+ (2nd), and .272 BA (1st) in the split. Over the past two weeks vs. southpaws, Detroit has a .380 wOBA (2nd), 148 wRC+ (2nd), and .293 BA (4th).
Let’s take the Tigers to cover the runlines for the full game and the first five innings. The Pirates are 10-25 on the road this year while Detroit is 24-11 at home. As mentioned above, it’s bounce-back time for the Tigers after losing their last two.
- Expert Pirates vs. Tigers Picks:
- Tigers -1.5 Runline (+108 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tigers 1st 5 Innings -0.5 RL (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cleveland Guardians vs. San Francisco Giants Predictions: Tuesday, June 17th
The San Francisco Giants made headlines two days ago with the blockbuster trade for Rafael Devers. The All-Star will make his Giants debut tonight as his new team hosts the Cleveland Guardians. Let’s break this game down and make some MLB picks.
Cleveland starter Slade Cecconi has a 4.26 ERA this season, with a 5.01 FIP and 5.89 xERA that are even worse. The right-hander has had some decent outings, but the underlying stats are concerning. Cecconi is allowing a ton of hard contact with an 18.1% barrel rate (1st MLB percentile) and 48.6% hard-hit rate (7th). He also has a poor .283 xBA (13th).
Meanwhile, the Giants are crushing right-handed pitching over the past week with a .372 wOBA (4th in MLB), 142 wRC+ (3rd), .853 OPS (5th), and 16.1% walk rate (1st). They’re also a top-10 offense in the split over the past two weeks.
Plus, San Fran obviously gets an offensive upgrade with Devers now in the heart of the lineup. He’s been one of the league’s best hitters this season, but especially against right-handers. Devers boasts a .904 OPS and .244 ISO vs. righties this year.
Robbie Ray will be on the mound for the Giants, which bodes well for the home team. The lefty has been lights out lately with a 1.89 ERA and 1.74 FIP over his past nine starts. Ray also has a 1.74 ERA and 1.78 FIP over his last five outings.
Ray has been great at home as well. He has a 2.00 ERA and 2.92 FIP at home so far with just a .210 batting average allowed. The Guardians, on the other hand, have struggled against left-handed pitching this year (.277 wOBA, 77 wRC+). Over the past two weeks vs. lefties, they’ve been slightly worse with a .269 wOBA and 71 wRC+.
We should bank on Ray being effective in this matchup, especially pitching at home. Plus, the back end of the San Francisco bullpen is well-rested after not pitching much at all against the Dodgers this past weekend.
This is also a prime home bounce-back opportunity for San Fran after losing their past two games. The Giants are 22-11 at home this year, including 9-4 in their last 13 home games. They’re also 9-3 at home against American League teams this season.
Meanwhile, the Guardians are slumping lately. They just got swept on the road at Seattle and are 2-8 over their last 10 games. Cleveland is also just 5-10 in its last 15 road games.
- Expert Guardians vs. Giants Picks:
- Giants -1.5 Runline (+137 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Giants 1st 5 Innings -0.5 RL (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Best MLB Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 6/17
- Will Warren, Yankees – Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+116 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Seth Lugo, Royals – 3+ Earned Runs Allowed (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Gunnar Henderson, Orioles – Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays – Over 9 Total Runs (-120 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Player News
Jake Meyers (calf) has been hitting, sprinting and doing light work in the outfield as he progresses from a right calf strain.
The Astros still want him to increase the intensity of his workout before he progresses to facing live pitching, so it still sounds like he has a bit of work to do before he returns. Meyers has been shelved since July 10 with the calf ailment.
Ben Brown will start for the Cubs on Monday against the Blue Jays.
Brown looked good in a relief role after Michael Soroka went down with an injury last week and will now get at least one start to make his case to stick in the Cubs’ rotation. Jameson Taillon is nearing a return from the injured list though which could relegate him back to the bullpen in short order.
Pedro Pagés went 1-for-3 and belted a two-run homer on Sunday evening as the Cardinals eked out a 3-2 victory over the visiting Cubs.
The 26-year-old backstop got the scoring started in the ballgame with his 407-foot (104.9 mph EV) two-run blast off of Shota Imanaga in the third inning. He also struck out and flied out to center in the contest. For the season, Pages is now hitting .211/.256/.341 with eight homers and 35 RBI in 291 plate appearances.
Nolan Gorman delivered a go-ahead RBI single in the seventh inning on Sunday night, leading the Cardinals to victory over the Cubs.
The Cardinals got something started with two outs in the seventh inning as Jordan Walker singled and swiped second base to get himself in scoring position. Gorman then battled back from an 0-2 hole against Shota Imanaga to line a single into right field that plated Walker with the go-ahead run that proved to be the difference. The 25-year-old infielder finished the night 1-for-3 and is now hitting .228/.315/.411 with 10 home runs and 34 RBI.
JoJo Romero picked up his third save of the season on Sunday night, recording the final four outs to protect a one-run lead against the Cubs.
Romero came on to get the final out of the eighth inning with a man on first base and two outs. He allowed a single to Kyle Tucker but then retired Carson Kelly on a ground ball to shortstop to get out of danger. He then returned for the ninth where he got Justin Turner on a fly ball to center. Ian Happ then drew an eight-pitch walk to put the tying run on base, but pinch-runner Jon Berti was cut down attempting to steal second base. Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson then singled to put the tying run in scoring position before Romero finally got Matt Shaw to hit into a fielder’s choice to end it. It looks like the 28-year-old southpaw is near the top of the committee for save chances in St. Louis at the moment, making him a worthwhile addition for those speculating on saves.
Sonny Gray delivered a dominant performance in Sunday night’s victory over the Cubs, allowing just two runs (one earned) on five hits over seven stellar frames.
The 35-year-old right-hander racked up seven strikeouts on the night while allowing only one base on balls. All of the damage done against him came on a two-run blast by Matt Shaw in the fifth inning after Dansby Swanson had reached on an error. Gray got seven swings and misses on 92 pitches on the night — all of them on his sweeper — while posting a CSW of 28 percent. Now 11-5 on the season, Gray will look to further improve upon his 4.06 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 148/22 K/BB ratio (135 1/3 innings) when he does battle against the Yankees on Saturday.