Fantasy baseball pitching matchups: is there a more important yet more unpredictable aspect of winning in your daily fantasy lineups? 

That's exactly why Fantasy Alarm is proud to introduce Fantasy Baseball Daily Pitching Matchup Rating Grid: a game-changing tool to arm you with the edge you need to destroy the competition. 

 

 

 

What is the MLB Pitching Matchup Grid? It is a simple yet powerful go-to tool for evaluating starting pitchers each day of the season. 

We will not just give the starters for the day; instead, we will take a deep dive into various important metrics such as opposing team batting statistics, pitcher ERA, strikeout rates, park factors, and weather conditions in order to deliver a thorough rating for every matchup. 

In the ever-changing world of fantasy baseball starting pitchers, there is daily movement with rising aces ascending the 2025 list and aging stars taking on new challenges. 

In fact, it becomes a critical component of DFS lineup selection, spotting sleepers, or steering clear of potential disasters. 

The colors in the rating scale will signify the matchups in the following way: 

  • GREEN - Elite Arms that will face more conducive conditions and thus possess high upside.
  • YELLOW - Slightly riskier plays, but they could have the upside of getting the win.
  • ORANGE - Plays that should be approached with caution.
  • RED - Those facing difficult matchups or in risky environments.

Updated: 5/12/2025

PitcherTeamMatchupKey Stats
Michael KingSan Diego PadresLos Angeles AngelsMichael King at Petco Park against the team with the worst strikeout rate in baseball over the last two weeks? Say no more.
Paul SkenesPittsburgh PiratesNew York Mets1.46 ERA on the road this year. 1.36 ERA on the road for his career. Tough matchup against a sizzling Mets team, but you aren't sitting Skenes if you have him.
Tyler MahleTexas RangersColorado RockiesMahle has been great this year, and gets the Rockies away from Coors Field. On the road this year, the Rockies have a 28.4 K%, .189 AVG, .243 wOBA, and 51 wRC. The Rockies' .537 OPS on the road this year is clearly the worst in baseball, and the next closest is Pittsburgh at .598!
Freddy PeraltaMilwaukee BrewersCleveland GuardiansPeralta's groin issue has pushed him back a couple of days from when he was originally expected to pitch, but fear not, he should be good to go for this matchup against a Cleveland squad that has a .302 wOBA ad 95 wRC+ over the last two weeks. He has a 3.42 ERA and 25.0 K% on the road this season, and while there is some rain around, it should hold off.
Michael WachaKansas City RoyalsHouston AstrosWacha hasn't been effective on the road as he has been at home this season (or in 2024 in fact), though his success against RHH this season should prove to be quite lucrative against this RH-heavy Houston lineup. Jose Altuve batting hamstring tightness could keep him out of the lineup, which would stand to benefit Wacha. Back on April 26th in Kansas City, Wacha blanked Houston over six innings while striking out six.
Matthew LiberatoreSt. Louis CardinalsPhiladelphia PhilliesLiberatore has increased the usage of his changeup this season, and that pitch has resulted in a .118 BAA, and .105 wOBA. The Phillies have the 10th-highest K rate on the year against lefties, though they do have an above-average 112 wRC+. Had a strong outing against them about a month ago, but wind is expected to be blowing out a bit today at Citizens Bank Park.
Cristopher SanchezPhiladelphia PhilliesSt. Louis CardinalsWind is blowing out today at Citizens Bank Park, but Sanchez's strong ground ball rate (59.4%) should help avoid any issues with the long ball against a Cardinals team that ranks in the bottom-third of the entire league in ISO vs. LHP. He's only had one start where he's allowed three or more earned runs, and he has a strong 14.4 SwStr% over his last four starts.
David PetersonNew York MetsPittsburgh PiratesWinds are blowing out to left a bit, but the Pirates have been one of the worst offenses in baseball this season against lefties, hitting just .222 with a 69 wRC+ and 26.3 K%. Outside of his strikeout rate, he's been better at home than on the road, so he has that going for him, too.
Merrill KellyArizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco GiantsSince allowing nine earned runs against the Yankees on April 3, Kelly has a 2.57 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 18.8 K-BB% over his last six starts. The Giants have the fifth-highest strikeout rate in the MLB over the last two weeks at 24.0%.
Colin ReaChicago CubsMiami MarlinsRea has a 2.96 ERA as a starter this season, and relatively strong winds blowing in today at Wrigley should help the pitchers, especially ones with a ground ball rate like Rea (36.7%). The Marlins rank in the bottom-10 of the MLB in wOBA and wRC+ over the last two weeks.
Grant HolmesAtlanta BravesWashington NationalsHolmes has been strong at his home park this season, posting an even 3.00 ERA with a 29.7 K%. Have to keep an eye on the weather here, but intrigued by his outlook today against Washington with the wind blowing in.
Jake IrvinWashington NationalsAtlanta BravesIrvin has served up a 1.80 HR/9 over his last four starts, but the wind is blowing in at Truist today. There's some rain in the area as well, but as long as Irvin can limit the damage from the Atlanta LHHs, he could have success against them. For what it's worth, the Braves have the sixth-lowest OPS over the last two weeks (.627), not to mention the fourth-lowest wOBA (.278).
Ryan GustoHouston AstrosKansas City RoyalsAs a starter this year, Gusto has a 3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 25.0 K%. His fastball, curveball, and cutter all have a swinging strike rate north of 10 percent, though strikeouts may be a bit difficult to come by, as the Royals have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball over the last two weeks at 15.9%. Don't love the matchup, but certainly don't hate it, especially since Gusto has been better against RHH, and the Royals' lineup should only include one or two notable LHHs.
Clarke SchmidtNew York YankeesSeattle MarinersSchmidt has served up a .318 BAA and .636 SLG to left-handed hitters this season, so any success starts there. Good park for pitching, and his slider and curve are both above-average pitches in terms of chase rate and swinging strike rate. Seattle has done a great job of minimizing strike outs of late, though its .714 OPS over the last two weeks is just middle of the pack.
Ben LivelyCleveland GuardiansMilwaukee BrewersThe Brewers' offense boasts the second-lowest OPS in baseball over the last two weeks, not to mention the lowest wRC+ (64). Wind is blowing out to left a bit at Progressive Field, but even on a good outing, Lively's lack of strikeouts lowers his ceiling. He has completed five innings in all but one start this season, albeit with just one outing of five or more strikeouts.
Tanner HouckBoston Red SoxDetroit TigersHouck's numbers remain inflated on the year, sitting at a 6.10 ERA and 1.74 HR/9. However, since the shellacking in Tampa Bay, Houck has a 3.57 ERA and 1.19 HR/9 over his last four starts. Tough matchup today against a Detroit lineup that has a .799 OPS and .196 ISO over the last two weeks, but winds blowing in at Comerica Park could help out the Boston righty.
Yusei KikuchiLos Angeles AngelsSan Diego PadresKikuchi gets to pitch tonight at the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park, but on the season, the Los Angeles southpaw has struggled on the road (5.19 ERA and 1.58 WHIP). The Padres don't strikeout a bunch, and his .277 BAA and .453 SLG allowed to RHH could be an issue against a right-handed heavy San Diego lineup.
Justin VerlanderSan Francisco GiantsArizona DiamondbacksThe strikeout rate for Verlander has been better at home this season, and after a slower start to the season for the veteran righty, he's been better of late, posting a 2.70 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over his last four starts. Tough matchup today, however, has Arizona has been one of the best offenses in baseball all year along against RHP (.213 ISO, .346 wOBA, 118 wRC+).
Jackson JobeDetroit TigersBoston Red SoxThe strikeout rate has been less than ideal for Jobe, but he gets to pitch at home tonight (2.70 ERA at home), and there are pretty strong winds blowing in. The Red Sox have the ninth-best OPS in baseball (.752) over the last two weeks, and Jobe has struggled his last two times out, albeit one of those starts did come at Coors Field.
Emerson HancockSeattle MarinersNew York YankeesHancock does have a a quality 3.52 ERA over his last four starts, but no team has a higher OPS in baseball over the last two weeks than the Yankees (.244), and for the entire 2025 season, no team has a higher SLG, wOBA, or wRC+ against RHP than the Yankees.
Chase DollanderColorado RockiesTexas RangersDollander's 6.10 ERA away from Coors Field is better than his 8.66 ERA at his home park, so there's that! Texas hasn't been the most potent offense over the last two weeks, posting a .682 OPS and .109 ISO. For the year against righties, they have the sixth-lowest wOBA at .299, but it's hard to trust Dollander right now.
Cal QuantrillMiami MarlinsChicago CubsThe Cubs haven't been as potent as usual of late, but they are still one of the better teams in baseball against RHP, and Quantrill has a .328 BAA and 1.67 WHIP on the year. Wind is blowing in at Wrigley, but that won't be enough to save Quantrill.