Welcome back to another Saturday of MLB picks as we take a closer look at all of today’s matchups. Let’s dive into MLB best bets and props as you enjoy the weekend action!

Our top MLB predictions today feature the Royals vs. Red Sox matchup for AL Wild Card bragging rights. We also take a side in the Marlins vs. Reds today. Plus, we wrap up our Saturday baseball betting card with some top MLB props. 

Enjoy the afternoon and night baseball as we cash our plays! 

 

 


 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 7/13

As always, be sure to shop around for the best Vegas odds and lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. 

Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and props for Saturday, July 13th!

 

 


 

Royals vs. Red Sox Prediction Today, July 13th

Let’s kick off our Saturday MLB bets with the Boston Red Sox hosting the Kansas City Royals this afternoon. This series between two AL Wild Card contenders is a fun one to wrap up the first half of the season – and let’s hope today’s game features plenty of runs. 

Royals starter Seth Lugo is having an excellent season with a 2.21 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. As impressive as the newly-named All-Star has been, he’s still bound for negative regression according to multiple advanced metrics. Lugo’s 3.85 xERA, 3.29 FIP, and 3.73 xFIP are all much higher than that sub-3.00 ERA. The right-hander’s low 23.0% whiff rate (34th MLB percentile) and high 84.9% strand rate are worrisome.

Lugo may continue to prove us wrong, but a poor outing or two should be coming. The Red Sox, meanwhile, present a very tough matchup this weekend. Boston is crushing right-handed pitching over the past two weeks with a .365 wOBA, 133 wRC+, .221 ISO, and .855 OPS. 

This Red Sox offense has woken up over the last month, averaging 5.5 runs over the 25 games. They are also putting up 5.8 runs per game over the past 10 contests. Lugo has also struggled a bit on the road recently with a 4.01 ERA over his last four road starts. This is a good time to sell high on the 34-year-old. 

We should also see the Kansas City offense add to the total in its own matchup. Boston starter Kutter Crawford has a solid 3.20 ERA but his 3.87 xERA, 3.83 FIP, and 4.00 xFIP all suggest negative regression as well. The righty has been worse at home (4.15 ERA) compared to on the road (2.35 ERA). Crawford will face a Royals lineup that also is hitting righties well lately with a .337 wOBA, 115 wRC+, .214 ISO, and .795 OPS in the split over the past two weeks. 

Grab the over for both the full game and first five innings. Let’s also double down with the over on Lugo’s earned runs prop. Plus, take the under on Crawford’s strikeout prop since the Royals have a league-low 17.5% K rate vs. righties over the past two weeks. 

Expert Royals vs. Red Sox Picks

  • Over 9 Total Runs (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 Runs (-125 BetMGM)
  • Seth Lugo Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Kutter Crawford Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135 BetMGM)

 

 


 

Marlins vs. Reds Prediction Today, July 13th

In case you haven’t noticed, the Miami Marlins are still a terrible baseball team. It’s been profitable to bet against the Marlins all season and Saturday gives us another opportunity to fade them. Let’s break down why the Cincinnati Reds are worth backing this afternoon. 

First off, here are a few trends worth noting. Miami has the worst runline cover rate in the MLB this year at 41-52 (44.1%). The Marlins have lost 30 of 44 games on the road as well. Plus, 10 of their last 13 road losses have come by multiple runs. Meanwhile, the Reds are tied for the league’s best runline cover rate at 55.3% this year. 

As for this matchup, we have Edward Cabrera starting for Miami and it immediately gives the Cincinnati offense an edge. Cabrera has a 6.84 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over 6 starts this season. The right-hander just returned from the IL last weekend and allowed two runs over 3.2 innings. It probably would’ve been worse if he stayed in the game longer. 

Cabrera had drastic home/road splits last year with a 5.96 road ERA compared to a 2.42 home ERA. That doesn’t bode well for him in the hitter-friendly Cincy ballpark today and in a tough matchup. The Reds are crushing righties over the past two weeks with a .342 wOBA, 117 wRC+, .243 ISO, and .797 OPS. 

Meanwhile, Reds starter Andrew Abbott is rocking a 3.06 ERA this season and gets a favorable matchup. The Marlins have been the MLB’s worst offense vs. left-handed pitching this season (.264 wOBA, 68 wRC+). Over the past month, Miami has a .261 wOBA, 66 wRC+, and 28.5% strikeout rate against lefties.

Though Abbott’s 4.73 FIP is worrisome, any negative regression likely won’t come in this easy matchup. The Cincinnati southpaw has been very solid lately with a 2.70 ERA since the beginning of June (7 starts). Take the Reds to cover the run line for both the full game and first five innings. 

Expert Marlins vs. Reds Picks

  • Reds -1.5 Runline (+128 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Reds 1st 5 Innings -0.5 RL (-120 BetMGM)

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Props Today, 7/13