The NFL playoffs are in full swing, and we are onto some NFL DFS for the divisional round! The NFL playoffs this weekend feature the Houston Texans taking on the Baltimore Ravens, and the Kansas City Chiefs traveling northeast to face Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. In the NFC, the Green Bay Packers face the San Francisco 49ers, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take on the Detroit Lions. Super Wild Card weekend featured a ton of blowouts, but I don’t think we’ll see that here in the divisional round, despite three of the game lines featuring favorites of at least six points (at time of writing). Spoiler alert: The Detroit Lions feature arguably my favorite NFL DFS stack of the weekend. By taking a look at projected game and team totals, as well as our divisional round player projections, we’ll get a good look at how we can best optimize the wide receiver position in our NFL DFS lineups. From superstar receivers to top NFL DFS stacks, the NFL DFS WR Coach will have multiple plays at various pricing tiers to help construct your lineups. Without further ado, let’s dive into this week’s DFS WR Coach, highlighting the top wide receivers to help build your NFL DFS lineups this weekend.

Be sure to check out the rest of the NFL DFS Coaches and DFS Watch List throughout the week!

| NFL DFS Watch List | DFS Playbook | QB Coach | RB Coach | WR Coach | TE Coach | D/ST Coach |

 

NFL DFS Divisional Round Picks

SATURDAY

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

Flowers can play anywhere, but his slot snaps should prove to be quite lucrative against Desmond King. Since Week 16, King has allowed roughly 82 percent of slot targets to be caught, per Pro Football Focus, including 78 yards after the catch! King is usually a reliable tackler, but Flowers is good after the catch, so a missed tackle or two could lead to massive gains for Flowers and the Ravens. The rookie receiver can win downfield, too, and we’ve seen plenty of receivers get behind the Houston secondary. This could be a game that goes over its projected total, and if that’s the case, Flowers figures to be a sizable part of that.

Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens

Bateman was seeing more targets down the stretch than Odell Beckham., and the latter should see a good bit of Derek Stingley, who is developing into a superstar, lockdown cornerback before our eyes. With that in mind, Bateman should line up against Steven Nelson, who is slower than Stingley, and in recent weeks, we’ve seen him on occasion do a bit more chasing than covering. In two of his final three games in the regular season, he posted a yards-per-route-run mark north of two, something he did only twice through his first 12 games of the season. If I had to guess, more people will flock to OBJ, so I’ll make my way to Bateman instead.

Nico Collins, Houston Texans

Collins is the focal point of the Houston offense, so regardless of the matchup, you have to consider rolling with him. Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik did a good job of moving him around to put him in the best positions, and we could see that creativity again here in a tough matchup. Dating back to the end of the regular season, Collins has at least six catches and 80 yards in three straight games, and he’s found the zone in five of his last seven. Also, it’s worth noting that he has two rushing attempts in the past three games, so it’s clear that Houston is making a concerted effort to get the ball in his hands. For the Houston offense to go, Collins has to be heavily involved, and if you think Houston loses this game, the game script should be in his favor. Back in Week 1, Collins caught six of 11 targets for 80 yards against Baltimore.

John Metchie, Houston Texans

With how good Kyle Hamilton was in slot coverage this year (58.1 passer rating when targeted, per Pro Football Focus), I’m fading Robert Woods and looking at Metchie. He had a beautiful catch on the sideline last week against Cleveland, and believe it or not, he logged the most snaps out of Houston’s wideouts last week. He’ll play on the outside, which gives him a better matchup, compared to dealing with Hamilton in the slot. Metchie may not have the highest ceiling, but he’s a value play who is starting to come along a little bit for the Texans. It’s a very low floor, I get that, but on a small four-game slate, you’ll have to find ways to be different, and he could be just that.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Can you play both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk? I think you could find some creative ways to make it work, but let’s say I can only pick one. If that’s the case, I’m going to go with Samuel, and here’s why. Yes, Aiyuk is $800 cheaper on DraftKings, so I think many are going to go there, so hopefully we can gain an edge in the ownership department there. Secondly, Samuel should see more of Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine compared to Jaire Alexander. Over his last six games, Nixon has allowed 80 percent of his targets to be caught and a 107.2 passer rating when targeted, per PFF. Valentine has been playing well to his credit, but Alexander is the one I want to avoid. Aiyuk figures to see Alexander just a bit more, and with how creative San Francisco is with Samuel, I’m going to chase his ceiling.

If you need to save the money, Aiyuk is a fine pivot from Samuel. I’m not saying I don’t like Aiyuk this week, because in fact, I do. However, Samuel has a very high ceiling himself, and the simple fact that he’s more expensive on DraftKings will push many to just take the cheaper option. I’ll have lineups with both guys, but again, if I can only pick one, my preference is Samuel.

Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers

Going into Super Wild Card weekend, there were some questions as to how the receiver room in Green Bay will play out. I did not have Doubs having the biggest day on my bingo card, nor did I expect him to lead the wideouts in snap share:

Player

Snap Share vs. DAL

Romeo Doubs

70%

Dontayvion Wicks

55%

Jayden Reed

46%

Christian Watson

41%

Bo Melton

39%


 

Doubs should see more of Ambry Thomas compared to Charvarius Ward, and Thomas allowed three receiving scores and a 10.3 average depth of target (aDOT) in coverage this season. I don’t know if Doubs can repeat last week’s performance, which was his best of the entire 2023 season to date, but if he’s going to be out there the most, opportunities should be there for him. I’m fading Christian Watson, and slightly prefer Doubs to Wicks on the outside for the Packers.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

The 49ers were vulnerable to slot receivers down the stretch, and coming off a game where Reed massively underwhelmed, do we see ownership diverted elsewhere? If so, sign me up for a lower-owned Reed every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Well, I guess Saturday in this case! Reed threw up a goose egg against Dallas, which is crazy to think about, but over the final four games in the regular season, he was averaging 79.5 total yards and one touchdown per game! San Fran is going to put up points on the Green Bay defense, and Reed will be relied upon more heavily in this one than he was in the shellacking of the Dallas Cowboys.

 

SUNDAY

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

Let’s not overthink this one, and make it really simple.

  1. The Bucs allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to receivers in the regular season.
  2. The Bucs were one of the worst teams against slot receivers, and Tampa’s slot corner, Christian Izien, allowed the 11th-most yards all season in slot coverage, not to mention a 101.3 passer rating when targeted, per PFF.
  3. St. Brown is one of, if not the best slot receivers in the league, and he burned Tampa Bay for 124 yards and a touchdown on 12 receptions back in Week 6.
  4. At Ford Field this year, St. Brown has averaged 14.2 yards per reception and 105.7 receiving yards per game.

In short, the one receiver I refuse to leave out of any lineup I build this weekend is St. Brown.

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

I don’t know how else to say it other than like this; If the Chiefs score points, the only wide receiver who Mahomes can/does trust is Rice. That’s it. On double-digit targets against the Dolphins, Mahomes had a 152.1 passer rating when targeting Rice, per PFF. The next highest was Justin Watson at 108.3 on 20 percent of the targets! The rookie has been a revelation for this offense, and again, Mahomes doesn’t trust any other receiver as much as he trusts Rice. The team is moving him all around the offense, and he’s lining up more out wide than he was in the beginning of the season. Per PFF, he actually took two more snaps out wide than compared to his usual slot spot. The Chiefs have realized that he’s the receiver to spotlight, and it’s time to put him in the advantageous spots to succeed. It’s a tough defense to go against, but Rice is going to get eight or more targets in this game, and he’s been a constant threat in the red zone for the majority of the season.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over the final four weeks of the regular season, the Lions were one of the worst teams in terms of fantasy points allowed to perimeter receivers, and Evans is a dominant perimeter receiver. We didn’t get the game we were expecting last week from Evans, but he still managed to see seven targets, and earlier this year, he handled 10 targets against the Lions. Evans should see a good bit of Cameron Sutton, who happened to allow the most receiving yards in coverage and a 114.4 passer rating when targeted down the stretch, per PFF. Evans will also have a significant height advantage over Sutton, so just keep that in mind when the Bucs are in the red zone.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Earlier in the year, we liked slot receivers against Detroit. However, you can still go that route, which makes Trey Palmer an intriguing dart throw, but over the final weeks of the regular season, it was Cameron Sutton and Kindle Vildor on the outside who were complete and utter liabilities in coverage. Over the final four weeks of the regular season, Sutton allowed the most receiving yards in coverage, and Vildor allowed over 35 yards per reception! Godwin has played outside more as the season has progressed, and he has found the end zone in two of his last three games, while handling five or more targets in six straight.

Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills

There’s a good amount of solid receivers on the slate, so you have to pick your spots in terms of receivers to play and receivers to fade. With me fading Stefon Diggs this week, I’m looking to Shakir. I expect Diggs to see a good bit of L’Jarius Sneed, and Diggs just hasn’t put up the production we need of late. Also, his track record is not great against Kansas City. Since joining the Bills in 2020, he’s faced the Chiefs six times, and he’s surpassed 70 yards receiving in just two of those games, with just two touchdowns across those six contests. In the two playoff games against Kansas City (2021 and 2022), he’s averaging just 4.5 receptions for 42 yards per game. With that in mind, Shakir should see more targets coming his way. This game may not be the prolific shootouts between these two that we have become accustomed to in the playoffs between these two teams, but there should be enough Shakir to get to double-digit fantasy points.

Side Note: If you really want to deviate, if Gabe Davis is out, look to Trent Sherfield. Yes, he was on the All-Cardio team last week as he had zero targets in that game against Pittsburgh, but his snap share (63%) was right on par with Shakir’s (67%). He’ll play out wide, and if Sneed is going to travel with Diggs the majority of the game, Sherfield will get Jaylen Watson, who allowed five receiving scores and a 109.4 passer rating when targeted this season, per PFF. However, he was playing much better down the stretch, I’ll give him that.

Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions

It didn’t work last week, but I’m chasing the upside on a small slate with just four games available to us. Yes, Williams’ numbers were far less impressive than Josh Reynolds’, but this game is in Detroit, and Williams is the big play guy for this offense. He burned the Bucs for a 45-yard score earlier this year in Week 6, and in last week’s postseason game, he played 70 percent of the offensive snaps, which was his highest snap share he’s recorded in a game for the entire 2023 season! The Bucs don’t have the speed in their secondary to keep up with Williams, and we should get a chance for a deep ball to Williams in this one. Williams only saw three targets in that Week 6 game against the Bucs, but he posted a 5.89 yards per route run and 23.3 aDOT, per PFF. Replicate those numbers this week, and you’ll see him celebrating a 30+ yard score on Sunday.