We take this pretty seriously, as you know. And, beyond analyzing the talent, usage, metrics, and matchups, we also shop the different DFS platforms based on both pricing and settings. This week more than ever, there are some discrepancies that we can take advantage of so make sure that you read the individual write-ups here so you know where and when to get an advantage. Every last budget dollar could mean the difference between you winning $10 or a $1,000,000 which is why we put in the extra work. And don’t worry - we’ve got a couple of options for the three-game Saturday slate AND a bonus dart throw for Sunday too! 

Be sure to check out the rest of the NFL DFS Coaches and DFS Watch List throughout the week!

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As a reminder, here is how we separate the groups here.  We do it this way so that you have an option no matter how much (or how little) money you have available to spend on tight end.

Top Tier:  the safest and most expensive guys available if you want to pay up

Mid Tier: affordable players that offer the best bang for your buck

Value Tier: the bargain bin players that are risky by nature but can have the huge upside in terms of value created

Fades: The guys we feel are the worst value proposition that you should actively avoid

Saturday Slate NFL DFS Week 15 Picks

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

Sam LaPorta and T.J. Hockenson both play on Saturday and they both happen to play the two easiest possible matchups for tight end. How did we get so lucky? They’re honestly both great starts though the return of Justin Jefferson and Nick Mullens at quarterback does give us some slight pause on Hockenson.  LaPorta is straight up cheaper than Hock on Yahoo and FanDuel so we are going with LaPorta over there. On DraftKings it’s very close but, if you need the extra $200, Hock is fine. The reality is that folks who max enter lineups are going to be making a lot of lineups with both players so, if you play a lot, you should do the same.

Will Mallory, Indianapolis Colts

After the top two, the pricing falls off a cliff. A lot of folks are going to be going with Pat Freiermuth. Or they will think they are being sneaky with Tanner Hudson. But the real sneaky play is actually way down the list. It’s Colts rookie tight end Will Mallory. The deal with Hudson is that he only runs around 10-15 routes a game but he gets a few targets. Last three games he has run 12, 10, and 10 routes but has gotten 4, 4, and 3 targets. Well, guess what? Will Mallory does essentially the same thing. He’s run 21, 13, and 15 routes and gotten 3, 2, and 5 targets. Yet Hudson is $3,000 on DraftKings and Mallory is the bare minimum. That is where we are going instead with a lower price and lower rostership.

 

Sunday Slate NFL DFS Week 15 Picks

Top Tier Tight End Plays

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

The last time these two teams played, George Kittle had one catch for nine yards. That’s it. But that’s not because Kittle is bad or because the Cardinals are a tough matchups for tight ends. It’s because Christian McCaffrey scored three touchdowns. And Kyle Shanahan himself explained at the time that Kittle had been banged up and they leaned on other guys. Guys like Mark Andrews, David Njoku, and Dalton Schultz all find the endzone against ARI and that’s what I expect this week for Kittle. Here’s how I’m playing it in the elite range this week - Kittle is ~11.5% of your budget on all three platforms so I’m using him on Yahoo and FanDuel which are both half PPR. On DraftKings which is full PPR, I’m using this next guy. 

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

The matchup could scare some folks off of McBride but he’s faced some of the toughest TE defenses already and he’s done just fine (outside of the Browns game when Clayton Tune was the QB). He had eight catches for 89 and a TD against the Steelers just last week and earlier this year he had 10 for 95 and a TD against the Ravens. They lean on this guy when the going gets tough which is why offensive coordinator Drew Petzing recently said “the sky’s the limit” for the young tight end. In games since Zach Ertz went down the full season pace for McBride would be well over 100 catches and 1,000 yards so we’re going to keep taking advantage. He’s 11% and 10.5% of your budget on Yahoo and FanDuel where we are using Kittle but he’s 10.4% on DraftKings where Kittle is 11.6%. And in full PPR, we like McBride better than Kittle outright so we’ll take the discount. 

Mid-Tier Tight End Plays

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Every single year this happens and every single year we take advantage for as long as we can. The usage changes for a player but the DFS sites don’t adjust nearly as quickly as we do. In his rookie year we took advantage of Amon-Ra St. Brown for multiple weeks before they finally changed his price. The usage for Kyle Pitts has clearly changed from earlier this year. Early on he was a part-time player coming off knee surgery but now, while they are fighting for the division, he’s a full go. He’s run 90% of the routes in back to back weeks. Some folks will say Carolina is a tough matchup for tight ends but Kyle Pitts played 44 snaps at WR in Week 13 and 52 snaps at WR in Week 14 so it’s hard to compare him to your typical inline tight end. We don’t love him on FanDuel where he is 9.5% of the budget but we are in at 7.5 - 8% on Yahoo and DraftKings. 

Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders

Logan Thomas has been hit or miss this year. But, despite missing a game and a half after an illegal hit by Kareem Jackson, he’s still techncially TE14 on the season in PPR. And, if there was one place for him to hit, it would be against the Los Angeles Rams. The Broncos and Bengals are on another planet in terms of being bad against the tight end but the Rams are in their own tier at third. Look at what Isaiah Likely did to them last week. This game has shootout potential with a 50.5 point over/under and you know that Washington isn’t scared to let it fly so we’re making some lineups with the former quarterback. He’s 8.5% and 7.5% of your budget on FanDuel and DraftKings but only 6.5% on Yahoo which feels like a great price. 

Value Tier Tight End Plays

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

This will probably be a popular option with the rookie tight end fever combined with him facing the defense allowing the third most DraftKings points. But we think it’s a decent enough set up to maybe make a lineup or two. Kraft played literally every snap this past week and he played 61 of 64 the week prior but the rub is that he’s blocked on 13 pass plays over that span so he’s not quite running every route. Still, with the wide receiver injuries over there and the matchup you almost have to utilize him at his price. We aren’t using him on FanDuel and he’s $3,000 on DraftKings but he’s actually the bare minimum $10 on Yahoo if you play over there.

Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans

Over the last two weeks Chigoziem Okonkwo has quietly run 48 routes from the slot. That’s not only good for the second most at TE behind Evan Engram but it’s actually the eight most of ANY player over that span. He also quietly has four of more targets in eight of the last nine games. This guy runs a 4.52 forty which is the same as George Kittle and he led all tight ends last year with three plays of 40+ yards. He’s yet to break off “the big one” this year and this matchup with the Texans is as good of a place as any to do it. They are 27th against the tight end in DraftKings scoring and their slot corner Tavierre Thomas has not only been struggling but he also left last week’s game with a hamstring injury and is questionable to play. FanDuel never has good pay down options at tight end at 8.3% of your budget but he’s 5.5% on Yahoo and 5.8% on DraftKings which is fantastic. The bare minimum on both sites is 5%. 

BONUS DART THROW

Durham Smythe, Miami Dolphins

This isn’t a sexy pick by any means. But let’s think about it. The Jets outside corners in DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner are killers. Their slot corner Michael Carter is also great but Smythe plays primarily inline. With Tyreek Hill dealing with a serious ankle injury, why wouldn’t this be the week to sneak Smythe a couple extra looks, maybe a touchdown. He plays virtually every snap which you really aren’t going to find for the bare minimum $2,500 on DraftKings. 

Fades

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Call me crazy but I just don’t want to pay up for the king this week. He’s still TE1 in the weekly rankings because he’s Kelce but this matchup has never been good to him. The Patriots notoriously try to take away your best player and, in seven games against the Pats, Kelce has only had more than 70 yards one time. And that was in 2014. Kyle Dugger is going to be all over him this weekend so I’m not sure he has the upside he typically has in what should be an easy win for KC. He’s never a BAD play, I’m just looking elsewhere. 

Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans

Dalton Schultz has had a good season. And a lot of folks are going to look at Nico Collins banged up and Tank Dell out for the year and lean into Schultz here. But the red flags are threefold for me. First, he’s coming off a hamstring injury which are notoriously fickle. Two, he’s going up against one of the toughest defenses for tight ends. And three, he’s likely doing it with Davis Mills at QB as C.J. Stroud has a concussion. No thank you.