We continue on into Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season with a matchup from the NFC for Thursday Night Football. What better way to dig into our fantasy football championships than with a matchup in the Windy City in some potential elements? The Bears may not have much to play for, but they can possibly spoil Seattle’s season with their first win since prior to their Bye week. Here are the latest Seahawks vs. Bears DFS picks as we start to wrap up the 2024 NFL season!

 

 

 

Seahawks vs. Bears DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 12/26

Thursday Night Football gives another conference matchup, and this is certainly a game that means more for fantasy football than it does for actual football. The Chicago Bears have already been eliminated from playoff contention as they’re riding nine straight losses.

It hasn’t been an easy transition to the NFL for Caleb Williams. There have been some bright spots, to be clear. He has 19 touchdown passes to just five interceptions and he hasn’t thrown a pick since Week 6. However, he’s lost a fumble in three straight games so he’s not completely in the clear with regard to ball security. He’s definitely been served a warm slice of humble pie and he likely falls short of throwing for 4,000 yards on the year. Personally, I had higher hopes for the defense and still remain optimistic for next year with some of the personnel they have. 

The Seattle Seahawks still have a pulse for the playoffs. However, if they’re going to be playing deep into January, they’ll likely need to win the NFC West. They currently sit a game behind the Los Angeles Rams, who have won four straight games, while the Seahawks have lost back-to-back contests. So this is a must win game for Seattle and they’ll be looking to keep pace and potentially hand the Bears their 10th straight loss Thursday Night. Let’s look into the Vegas odds, injury reports, and top plays for our Seahawks vs. Bears DFS picks!

 

 

 

Seahawks vs. Bears TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Seahawks -3.5 (-118)
  • Money Line:
    • Seahawks (-205)
    • Bears (+170)
  • Game Total: Over 43.5 (-108) / Under 43.5 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Seahawks -3.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Seahawks (-196)
    • Bears (+164)
  • Game Total: Over 43.5 (-110) / Under 43.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Seahawks vs. Bears TNF, December 26th

For a game in late December, the temperature won’t be terrible all things considered. Temperatures will start in the mid-40’s and drop as the game progresses. However, there is a 30% chance of rain in the morning and that increases to 60% around kickoff. We will monitor the weather throughout the day on Thursday and provide updates based on more accurate forecasts.

 

Seahawks vs. Bears Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 17

Another short week means rather unfulfilling injury reports. Monday’s reports were “estimated” of course, and Tuesday’s practice sessions are usually just light walk throughs. Most of Seattle’s players practiced in full for Tuesday’s session. Some missed for veteran’s rest. But the noteworthy DNP was that of Kenneth Walker. He re-aggravated his ankle injury in Week 16 and the fact he didn’t practice on Tuesday does signal that we need to monitor his status for our TNF DFS picks.

The only injury of note for Chicago’s offense was with offensive lineman Teven Jenkins who did not practice on Tuesday. On the defensive side we should keep an eye on the status of Elijah Hicks and Gervon Dexter Sr.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $15,000

JSN is a special talent and a player who many gave up on following his rookie campaign. After zero games with 69+ receiving yards in 2023, he now has eight such games in 2024 and he’s emerged as the sure fire WR1 in this offense.

He’s also redefining how we view receivers. Admittedly, I do rely on a lot of per route metrics. While he’s only 35th in yards per route run (YPRR) at 1.91 he still has me viewing the position differently because he’s top five in receptions. In a full point per reception format like DraftKings, we can lean on him a little more.

JSN’s coming off a performance where he touted a 34.6% first-read target share and he had 150+ air yards for the third time this season. He now has back-to-back games with a dozen targets.

My only concern in this matchup is passing volume but that won’t deter me from Seattle’s WR1. Opposing offenses are only attempting roughly 30 passes per game against Chicago which is seventh fewest in the league. Chicago is so easy to run on which is where the Bears can truly be beaten. But given what JSN has done lately, we should fire him up with confidence in any matchup.

Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $12,000

We don’t really know what’s gotten into Keenan Allen but it’s working and he’s turning into a late-season league winner. From Weeks 1-9 he had just 21 receptions on 42 targets for 197 yards and two touchdowns. Since Week 10 he has 41 receptions on 68 targets for 497 yards and five touchdowns.

A lot of the heaviest damage has come since Week 12. In four of his last five games, he’s returned at least 20 fantasy points and he has back-to-back games with 13 targets. Strangely enough, the veteran is Caleb Williams’ favorite target and he has a 34.4% target share since Matt Eberflus was fired.

Allen works perfectly as a Captain/MVP option for a format like this. The Bears have several mouths to feed but it almost feels like his floor is certainly better than Rome Odunze’s while the ceiling is clearly higher than DJ Moore’s.

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $12,500

Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $11,000

We should have clarity by Thursday on how this backfield will shake out for Week 17. The narrative heading into week 16 was that KW3 was returning and that’s always led to bad news for Charbonnet. However, the team made the latter a Captain on Sunday and it seemed like he’d be utilized even with Walker active. That wasn’t the case as he touched the ball just three times, but that may have been due to his elbow injury.

Walker did re-aggravate his ankle injury and was estimated as a DNP on Monday while he awaits the results of an MRI. Charbonnet also picked up an elbow injury which may help explain the limited usage on Sunday, but he was at least estimated as a limited participant for Monday.

Walker has struggled with efficiency when he’s been active and that can be attributed to a few factors. For starters, Seattle’s offensive line isn’t very good. The interior has been abysmal and it only got worse when Connor Williams abruptly retired. Since Week 8, in the games where Walker was active, he’s averaging just 3.07 yards per carry. If there’s a saving grace for his fantasy value, it’s that he’s involved in the passing game. He caught all eight of his targets on Sunday.

I almost wish they would make Walker inactive so we could just load up on Zach Charbonnet shares. Charbonnet found the end zone four times from Weeks 13-15 and had that monster game against Arizona in Week 14. A similar performance could be in store as the Bears allow the seventh most rushing yards per game (134.1) and the seventh most yards per attempt (4.7), and they’ve allowed six rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs over their last three games.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $10,500

Moore has taken his licks with the media this season. And rightfully so, some of the criticism is deserved. This past week he made some comments that were along the lines of him already looking forward to or needing a vacation. The most damning criticism came after he walked off the field mid-play against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 9.

But at the end of the day, he still gets plenty of volume. He has 42 targets over his last four games but a lot of his work has been in short yardage situations and he hasn’t done much after the catch. In his last three games he has 21 catches on 26 targets but for just 163 yards and no touchdowns.

The Seahawks defense strangely doesn’t give up much yardage but over their last two games they’ve surrendered 57 points to other NFC North offenses like the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. So there’s at least some hope the Bears can put points on the board as well.

Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $14,000

If playing any Chicago pass catcher at MVP/Captain, you should naturally be correlating the play with Williams in the flex. As we mentioned earlier in the article, Williams hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6. However, the counterpoint is that he’s lost a fumble in three straight games.

I am still somewhat encouraged with how he’s played lately. He has 10 touchdowns passes in his last five contests and in four of those games he’s rushed for 25+ yards. The rushing was something he did plenty at USC and I’m hoping he gets more confidence to use his legs to close out his rookie season.

The Seahawks have surrendered seven passing touchdowns over their last three games and their defense doesn’t really generate much pressure (35 sacks in 15 games). Nor do they force many takeaways (16 total in 15 games). So I don’t have much faith in the Seahawks shutting down the Bears. Aside from the “short week” narrative I think this is a good spot where Williams potentially posts 20+ fantasy points on DraftKings.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $14,500

We don’t really see a ton of passing volume from Geno Smith and the Bears are a defense most teams choose not to throw on. Last week’s game script called for 43 pass attempts from Geno. But it was just the fifth time this season where Smith attempted 35+ pass attempts and the first time since Week 6.

Moreover, Smith also only has three games all season with multiple touchdown passes and one of those came last week against the Vikings. So the output, on a short week especially, could give us more of a floor game for Smith and we also know to acknowledge he’s thrown 15 interceptions in as many games.

DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $13,000

Metcalf has seemingly taken a backseat to JSN over the last handful of games, but we can’t completely forget about his upside. Last week he found the end zone for the first time since Week 7 but he has either three or four catches in five straight games. The ceiling is a bit limited if that’s the case.

But I’m still okay going back to the well here. According to Fantasy Points Data, Metcalf still leads all qualifying receivers in catchable air yards at 77.5 per game. So I am inclined to believe that he is capable of popping off for a big game. But similar to the volume concerns we noted up above, we should be weary that he may only see six-to-eight targets in this game so he would need to be very efficient and/or find the end zone again.

Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $9,500

I’m a big fan of Odunze, but the situation this year isn’t great. It does sound as if Keenan Allen is looking forward to life after Chicago, so we probably don’t see improvements from the rookie receiver out of Washington until 2025.

But even as far as this year is concerned, he’s had some good games. For a play in this price range we can take comfort in the fact that he’s getting over seven targets per game over the last six weeks.

Entering Week 16, Odunze had the highest uncatchable air yard percentage at 62.1% among all qualified receivers with at least 800 air yards. For a player still seeing targets this is somewhat of a sign for positive regression down the stretch and he did have four receptions for 77 yards a week ago.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

Kmet found the end zone last week but he voiced his frustrations following the team’s ninth straight loss. And who can really blame him? Chicago has the pieces in place to win more than four games this year, and yet they’re winless after starting the year 4-2.

Perhaps those comments can be viewed as a “squeaky wheel” narrative, but the truth is that Kmet has just three targets since Matt Eberflus was fired. The recent play calling hasn’t really involved Kmet, and that’s a shame because he is a good tight end and they’re paying him as such. If the game script is in his favor, hopefully the play calling improves and calls for him to be used more. For now you’re mostly viewing him as a salary saver who is on the field and running plenty of routes.

Noah Fant, TE, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $7,500

Fant’s fantasy output is minimal. But be mindful, the tight end position is dependent on touchdowns and Fant has none this season. But this is an affordable price for a player with three receptions in four straight games since returning from injury.

In that same time frame he has 21 total targets. In Week 16, all three of his catches were for 15+ yards. Over their last five games the Bears have allowed 27 receptions on 39 targets for 390 yards and three touchdowns to the tight end position. I guess it’s worth mentioning that all three touchdowns were to Sam LaPorta but he only accounts for 49 of the receiving yards.

Noah Fant is questionable for this matchup but if he’s a surprise inactive then we can upgrade AJ Barner and Pharaoh Brown.

Kenny McIntosh, RB, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $7,000

The read here is rather simple. If Kenneth Walker is inactive then I don’t mind utilizing McIntosh in some builds as relief for Zach Charbonnet. However, if KW3 does suit up then I may pivot to Roschon Johnson, who I don’t like but he at least has six touchdowns on the season and that’s basically what we’d be hoping for in this price range.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

I felt as if I struggled getting a read on these D/ST’s more than most weeks. Sure, it’s a short week and we have to keep both D/ST’s in mind for this slate, especially if the weather is going to play a role. The Bears have the luxury of going against one of the worst offensive lines in the league. But I also had that same mindset in Week 16 which is why I was so fond of the Minnesota Vikings. However, they were only able to sack Geno Smith twice and force two interceptions. Over their last five games the Bears only have nine sacks, four takeaways, and they’ve allowed 31 points per game in that span. I’m cautiously playing them but hoping for some positive regression.

There are some ball security concerns with both quarterbacks for this game. Geno Smith has 15 interceptions. Caleb Williams only has five, but he’s fumbled in three straight games. So I do think you can play both D/ST’s but I’ll give slight preference to Seattle because they have five D/ST touchdowns on the year but their pass rush is sub-par.

Jason Myers is likely everyone’s preferred kicker, but I don’t particularly think he nor Cairo Santos have great ceilings. Myers has provided double-digit fantasy points seven times this year, but he’s never returned more than 12. But he has four straight games with multiple field goal attempts. But Chicago allows 3.9 red zone scoring attempts per game, second-most in the NFL. But despite the red zone opportunities, Chicago’s opponents are only scoring on 47.46% of their red zone drives, the third best rate in the league.

Santos only has three field goal attempts in his last four games and has returned double-digit fantasy points just once since Week 3. Anything can happen on a Showdown slate and I’m sure he’ll be the leverage play in this section. But overall, I don’t have a ton of enthusiasm with this recommendation.

We do need to monitor the weather ahead of this matchup. This article is being published on Wednesday and we have a lot to navigate ahead of this game.

 

 

 

Seahawks vs. Bears DFS Player Pool: TNF, 12/26

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