We wrap up a loaded Week 12 slate with this NFC North matchup on Monday Night Football. The Chicago Bears head North to Minnesota for a duel with the Vikings ahead of the bye week for both organizations. The Bears are in a very peculiar spot. They’re 3-8 but they also own the Carolina Panthers’ first-round pick this year which currently projects to be the first overall selection. So, they have the luxury of seeing what they truly have with Justin Fields. With Fields under center, the Bears are certainly more competitive as we saw last week. So Chicago can at least see if they want to move forward with him under center or if they look to deal him for more draft capital while selecting the next franchise quarterback with a top pick. On the other side of the ball, the Minnesota Vikings are at 6-5 and just had their five-game winning streak snapped by the Denver Broncos in Week 11. With Joshua Dobbs under center, and a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way, the Vikings are poised to make a run for a Wild Card spot. We also have the added drama of whether or not Justin Jefferson will be activated off IR (it doesn’t sound like he will), but let’s take a look at Monday’s NFL DFS Showdown slate!

 

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Over/Under: 44 Points

Weather: This game will be played in a controlled environment.

Notable Injuries

Chicago Bears

Minnesota Vikings

NFL DFS MVP/Captain

Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears

This should come as a surprise to absolutely no one. I love quarterbacks with rushing upside on a Showdown slate. Fields rushed for over 100 yards last week against the Detroit Lions and on the season, he has five performances with at least 45 rushing yards. Let’s also not forget, the last time he played in primetime he threw for four touchdowns against the Washington Commanders. The passing volume, at times, has been low. So if we invest in Fields, we really need efficiency through the air, and volume on the ground. He was heating up prior to his injury that cost him a few weeks, but last week’s performance was promising against Detroit. The Vikings have actually been a stiff matchup for opposing quarterbacks. They’ve really only been torched by one quarterback and that was Justin Herbert way back in Week 3. But Fields offers a dynamic that Minnesota hasn’t seen much of, and he was injured in this matchup earlier in the year. 

DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears

Moore’s production took a hit just as Justin Fields was hitting his stride earlier this year. And it capitalized in a massive performance for Moore on Thursday Night Football back in Week 5 against the Washington Commanders. In that game, Moore popped off for eight receptions on 10 targets for 230 yards and three scores. Even in his first game with Fields back last week, Moore caught seven-of-nine targets for 96 yards and a score. With Justin Fields under center, Moore has a nearly 30% target share while averaging 120 receiving yards. He’s easily WR1 in this offense and he’s Justin Fields’ top target and we’ve seen that slate-breaking upside on Showdown slates with these two.

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings

He’s an absolute volume hog and he’s apparently been training with Joshua Dobbs in the offseason as they’re both local to Nashville. Hockenson had just four receptions on seven targets last week. That’s not normal. I fully expect a bounce back. Hockenson should return to the double-digit target realm this week. And if you don’t believe me, maybe Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports can persuade you…

Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings

He has yet to score a touchdown with Joshua Dobbs under center, but he’s still commanding a good share of the targets and I don’t want to completely write him off. The volume might be down a little but that’s because Joshua Dobbs hasn’t thrown it as much. However, if the Bears give Hockenson similar treatment as they gave Sam LaPorta last week, then that possibly opens up more possibilities for Addison. As long as Justin Jefferson remains on IR, I’ll continue to feed myself exposure to Addison at Captain. It’s only a matter of time until Joshua Dobbs realizes that Addison makes quarterbacks better…

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays

Joshua Dobbs, QB, Minnesota Vikings

He’s a great story. And he’s a genius. But in this matchup I don’t know how likely it is that he’s optimal at Captain. Assuming Justin Jefferson is out, Dobbs becomes the third-most expensive player on the slate. He’s thrived for fantasy football because he has a rushing touchdown in five straight games dating back to his time as a member of the Arizona Cardinals. He is still a turnover prone quarterback. He has seven fumbles (three lost) and three interceptions in his last four games. And the passing numbers are pretty low. Basically, his value is dependent on a rushing touchdown. Sure, the Bears are very bad defensively, but I will pivot if Dobbs is garnering a lot of attention at Captain.

Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears

With D’Onta Foreman out for this game, Herbert safely resumes the RB1 role in this offense. Even last week he garnered 18 touches for a total of 41 yards. That’s a forgettable performance. But over their last two games, opposing running backs have 22 receptions against this Vikings defense and Herbert is no stranger to the passing game. I don’t think I like him enough to play him at Captain but he’s cheap enough to lock him in as a Flex play assuming he sees 15+ touches.

Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears

He’s touchdown or bust. He was arguably better with Tyson Bagent under center, but let’s not forget he caught three touchdowns in Weeks 4 and 5 and he’s no stranger to seeing at least seven targets in a given matchup. The Vikings have been good at containing the tight end position, but they also haven’t been tested against many good tight ends lately. I’m not saying Kmet is an elite tight end, but his touchdowns tend to come in bunches. While this isn’t a play I’ll be excited to get exposure to, there is some touchdown equity here so I don’t want to completely fade him from the Playbook.

Ty Chandler, RB, Minnesota Vikings

I’m taking a stance. I’m not going to highlight Alexander Mattison ($7,400) this week. Does that mean you can’t play him? No. But he won’t be in my player pool when I’m building lineups on my lunch break on Monday. I will take a stab at Ty Chandler who has 29 touches in his last two games including four receptions last week. Mattison is averaging 3.7 yards per carry this year. Sure, he could easily go out and get 15+ carries again. But he’s not efficient. Chandler is averaging 4.8 yards per carry this year and he injects a little excitement into the offense. It’s the “fear of the unknown” but I’m hoping the Vikings ride the hot hand with the rookie. Both are overpriced from where I’d like to see them, but for now I’ll take the slight discount on Chandler. I may actually prefer Chandler over someone like KJ Osborn ($5,600) as Osborn played almost every offensive snap last game but doesn’t have the rapport with Dobbs like Addison or Hockenson do. Plus, with Dobbs under center, Osborn can’t be fed those deeper targets so he may be capped in terms of upside. Osborn is a bit of a contrarian option that maybe makes one or two of my lineups.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears

This is a weird spot for Mooney because he’s such a boom-or-bust type of play. The Vikings have allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, but we should still anticipate most of that equity to go to Moore. Moreover, in Fields’ first game back last week he only targeted Mooney one time and it resulted in a 24-yard catch. So in this range where he serves as another pivot off Osborn, we would like to see at least four targets and he’ll need to take one of them for a big gain. He is in a contract year so it’s surprising the offense isn’t doing more to feature him in an effort to help him get paid.

Defense/Special Teams and Kickers

With each new Showdown slate I’m trying to talk myself into playing more D/ST’s because scoring seems down overall across the league this year. Even in last night’s game I was stunned to see a 20-10 end result between two potent offenses. The Bears allow 26.0 points per game (fourth worst in the NFL) and when opposing offenses get into the red zone they’re scoring at a 75% clip (worst in the NFL). The Bears only have 15 sacks on the year which is incredibly low and that bodes well for Dobbs to operate in a clean pocket. The Bears have been pretty bad defensive, especially of late, and with Dobbs operating as a game manager and taking what the defense gives him, I don’t know if they have much upside without a pick six.

Against the Chicago Bears, opposing defenses have five defensive/special teams’ touchdowns but sacks and turnovers haven’t been as fruitful of late. From Weeks 1-6 the Bears allowed 25 sacks, 11 turnovers, and four D/ST touchdowns. Since Week 7 the offense has only surrendered seven sacks, eight turnovers, and one touchdown. And mind you, five of those more recent turnovers came against the New Orleans Saints when Fields was out. Minnesota doesn’t generate a ton of pressure but they have far more sacks (29) than the Bears. But Justin Fields can be a tough one to take down. As always, these options are cheap and they flip the script with a pick six.

For the kickers, you’re paying a premium for Greg Joseph ($5,000), but DraftKings has been trending toward pricing up the kickers over the D/ST’s of late. Joseph has seven straight games with multiple field goal attempts and prior to last week he had five straight games with at least three. As mentioned previously, opposing offenses score on 75% of their red zone drives against the Bears. That’s actually a bad thing for Joseph but I won’t dwell on it too much. Joseph should still get a few opportunities to put points on the board for Minnesota.

Cairo Santos ($4,600) was kept in check for most of the season, but he’s posted double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back games while drilling field goals from over 50 yards away in consecutive games as well. The return of Justin Fields has certainly elevated his floor as the Bears can move the ball more efficiently in the opponent’s territory. The Vikings have seen opposing kickers attempt 10 field goals in their last three games so given the trends on defense and what we saw last week with Fields back, Santos could see volume in this game and he correlates well if you play Justin Fields at Captain.

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears

With D’Onta Foreman ruled out, there may be some extra touches opening up that could filter to Johnson. He hasn’t been all that great since Week 1 where he found the end zone, but this is just a byproduct of being the complimentary back in this offense. Most weeks he’s lucky to see 8-to-10 touches but that could be right around where his workload lies Monday night as the backup to Khalil Herbert.

Josh Oliver, TE, Minnesota Vikings

I’m probably not playing Oliver, but it’s more of a strategy call. He caught all four of his targets last week in Denver and even found the end zone. So from a paydown perspective, I anticipate he’ll be on everyone’s radar. And it makes sense. We’ve noted previously how Dobbs leans on his tight ends. We saw it in Arizona with Trey McBride and we’ve seen it in a small sample size with T.J. Hockenson. It’s only natural that he gets the backups involved as well if he can’t force it deep down the field.

Brandon Powell, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Powell will be a popular option at the Flex if Justin Jefferson isn’t activated for this game. He’s only $2,000 on DraftKings for this game and while the output has been minimal, I’ll take whatever production I can get from him at this cheap price. He has 30 targets over his last seven games with 21 receptions in that span. If he can provide three catches as a “floor” for what we should expect then I’ll take it. But if he pops off for a score or maybe sees more than five targets then we may be looking at a very nice ceiling as well. But be mindful, he didn’t run nearly as many routes as Osborn last week so I’ll once again mention that Osborn could be in a leverage spot.

Equanimeous St. Brown and Tyler Scott, WR, Chicago Bears

As I’ve mentioned in more recent Showdown Playbooks, DraftKings is sucking the fun out of the room by minimizing the sub-$1,000 options for us. So EQSB and Scott are about as low as I want to go into the player pool. Scott lost a fumble last week so there’s some risk of him being in the doghouse in addition to being buried in the depth chart. But he’s still a rookie and is seemingly getting open on a few deep routes each game. EQSB didn’t do much either with just two targets in Fields’ return but we’re taking risks in this range and hoping to strike golf with one of these plays.