Monday Night Football delivers a pair of games that once again overlap each other as far as the schedule is concerned. The Miami Dolphins play host to the team from the Music City for an AFC matchup against the Tennessee Titans. Most might scoff at this matchup. Why? Well through three weeks these teams have just one win combined on their resumes. So needless to say, this is arguably a must-win game for both organizations. And for this Showdown/Two-Game NFL DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel, most might be off this game. But you better believe that there are some gems in this game and we’ll seek them out for our Titans vs. Dolphins DFS picks.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Titans vs. Dolphins Monday Night Football Playbook

Trying to get a read on this game was truly difficult. I typically start this article by looking at the player pool and Vegas line movement and trying to get a feel for how the game unfolds. These two teams have been a beacon of poor quarterback play the last couple weeks. And both teams boast horrible offensive lines.

Even for the NFL DFS Monday Night Football doubleheader slate, most DFS players are going to lean into the other game on this slate featuring the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions. So this game is greasy.

The Tennessee Titans are 0-3 under new head coach, Brian Callahan. Callahan comes from a great offensive coaching tree, but his second-year quarterback, Will Levis, has been tough to watch at times and he’s turned the ball over plenty.

Things aren’t any better for the Miami Dolphins as they fight to stay alive and get to 2-2 on the year. Tua Tagovailoa was lost to another concussion and there’s really no timeline for his return. Last week the team went with Skylar Thompson at quarterback and things went poorly. For this game, they signed Tyler Huntley off the Baltimore Ravens practice squad and in previous spot starts for Lamar Jackson, Huntley was able to put up okay numbers. Nothing worth writing home about, but obviously good enough to consider for our MNF DFS picks.

Apologies if this article feels shorter in comparison to other NFL DFS Showdown Playbooks. But it’s a very difficult game to read given the narratives at play and the fact Vegas isn’t expecting a ton of offense from this matchup doesn’t give me great confidence.

 

 

 

Titans vs. Dolphins MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Dolphins -2.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Titans (+114)
    • Dolphins (-135)
  • Game Total: Over 37 (-110) / Under 37 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Dolphins -2.5 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Titans (+122)
    • Dolphins (-144)
  • Game Total: Over 37.5 (-106) / Under 37.5 (-114)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Titans vs. Dolphins MNF, September 30th

It’s going to be a typical Monday night in South Florida. The Dolphins won’t have the advantage of the opposing team standing in direct sunlight on the other sideline. But temperatures will be in the mid-80’s with partly cloudy skies. It’s still Florida during hurricane season and a pop up shower could occur. But overall, there aren’t too many threatening conditions for this game and winds will be under 10 miles per hour.

Titans vs. Dolphins Notable Injuries & Inactives

The only concerns for the Tennessee Titans are on the defense. Defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons is doubtful after not practicing all week with an elbow injury. Defensive back L’Jarius Sneed, a big acquisition in the offseason, is questionable but likely plays. He popped up on the injury report due to rest but was limited on Saturday. Amani Hooker is questionable as well after being a limited participant all week. I would assume he’s active for this matchup as well.

The Miami Dolphins have injuries to monitor across the board. Skylar Thompson is technically listed as questionable, but we can confirm that he’ll likely be ruled out since the team confirmed Tim Boyle will be the backup Monday night. But Terron Armstead has been ruled out as he didn’t practice all week. A bad offensive line will likely be much worse in Week 4. 

Running back Raheem Mostert is questionable after being a limited participant all week with a chest injury. He’s a true game time decision and if he’s out then Jeff Wilson and Jaylen Wright are upgraded for our MNF DFS picks. On the defensive side, linebacker David Long is doubtful while defensive back Kendall Fuller has already been ruled out.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Titans vs. Dolphins Monday Night Football, 9/30

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $15,000

Obviously, Hill is not quite the lock he would be if Tua Tagovailoa were healthy. But the big play and after-the-catch ability are still live. We’re all aware of the amazing breakout that Nico Collins has had since the start of the 2023 campaign. And despite the quarterback issues Tyreek has dealt with in the last calendar year, Collins is second to Hill in fantasy points per route run in that span.

Now there have been massive spike games in that span and some duds as well. Basically, it’s been downhill for Tyreek since Tua went down. But the biggest concern isn’t necessarily due to his skill. Hill saw 12 targets in Week 1, but without Tua, Hill has just five and six targets in his last two games respectively.

If we’re opting to go here at Captain, we’re doing so with an understanding that we basically need him to be overly efficient. But the change at quarterback can only be a good thing.

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $15,500

The argument on Achane all along has been that he couldn’t possibly maintain the efficiency from his rookie campaign. But he could still be relevant with league-winning upside with increased volume. That’s certainly been the case. However, this offensive line is being held together by duct tape.

Similar to Tyreek Hill, the big play upside is definitely still there and he’s caught 17-of-19 targets in three games. And yet, he’s only averaging 3.5 yards per carry so the rushing efficiency is down about 50% compared to last year. The implied total is very low but if we can get that coveted big play from Achane and he can maybe score two touchdowns, then we’ll take it.

Through the first two games against the Chicago Bears and New York Jets, the Tennessee Titans defense had allowed just 181 rushing yards. But against the Green Bay Packers torched them for 188 rushing yards just a week ago.

Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans - DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

Pollard is only the fifth-most expensive option on the FanDuel slate but given that FanDuel’s scoring caters more to receivers and quarterbacks, he may be a better flex option. 

Last week the game script dictated Pollard’s involvement and it required for passing to keep pace with the Green Bay Packers. The running backs had jut 15 total touches, but Pollard at least accounted for 60% of those.

He had over 40 touches total in his first two games and he posted 15+ fantasy points on DraftKings in both games with that volume. Pollard has seen roughly 65% of the team’s offensive snaps and that number increases to 81% in the red zone so that elevates the potential for the high value touches.

Tyler Huntley, QB, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $13,500

It’s been a couple years since we’ve seen Tyler Huntley get legitimate playing time, but I think there’s some appeal here for the rushing quarterback. For starters, in Week 3 we saw Malik Willis throw for 200+ yards and a touchdown against Tennessee and he added 73 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground as well.

Late in the 2021 we saw Huntley have four games for the Ravens where he threw for 195+ yards in each while also adding 40+ yards on the ground in each contest as well. Given how bad the Miami offensive line is (as we’ve seen with Achane’s efficiency drop), Huntley does have some appeal as a player who may be required to find his fantasy production on the ground.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans - DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $13,000

Levis is not a high upside play. In fact, we can almost count of him to make a couple stupid mistakes and his head coach probably feels the same way. Levis, to his credit, is still throwing it plenty averaging over 30 pass attempts per game and he completed 76.9% of his passes last week as well.

But he was also still responsible for three turnovers despite a pair of touchdown passes. My concern is that this game could be low scoring, and close enough, to where Brian Callahan wants to take the ball out of his quarterback’s hands and run the ball more. That gives more value to Pollard and Tyjae Spears.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $11,000

Here’s what I like about Waddle. At a media session earlier this week, he said he worked out with Tyler Huntley a few times this offseason. But also, in that same clip he also says it’s not like they have chemistry. I almost would have preferred that he lie to us.

Waddle is another tough sell on Miami currently. Without Tua this is easily a bottom 10 offense in the league and Waddle’s only averaging 33.5 receiving yards per game with Tua out (two-game sample size). But he has caught all but one of his targets this year, but we should keep expectations in check.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $10,000

Hopkins was playing through a knee injury the first two weeks and saw just three total targets in limited action. However, last week he played only 45% of the offensive snaps but still led the team in targets with seven and he had three receptions go for over 15 yards according to DraftKings.

Levis still has some deep threat appeal so for a Showdown slate I don’t want to write off Hopkins or Calvin Ridley. But if the goal on Monday is to get more snaps for Hopkins then there’s an easy path for him to once again receive at least seven targets.

Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans - DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $8,500

We’ve already touched upon Tony Pollard’s usage especially in Week 3. But mind you, Spears was coming off an injury that limited him in the second half of Week 2’s loss against the New York Jets. Prior to the injury, Spears actually saw 57% of the snaps in that game to Pollard’s 43% and he had eight touches as well.

So I’m almost wondering if the Week 3 numbers should be disregarded. For starters, the Titans were playing from behind for most of that game and he was questionable to begin with. Spears only has 22 total touches so far this year but 10 of those have come through the air and we may see more of a lean on the run game given Levis’ output through three games.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Jaylen Wright, RB, Miami Dolphins – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $7,500

I really only care for Wright on the Showdown slate if Raheem Mostert is unable to play. But to that point, if you’re playing the two-game slate then Wright might just be that low-cost running back option that has some upside that can separate your lineups in tournaments.

Mostert is doing everything he can to be ready for this game. If he’s active, we maybe stay away from Wright. But perhaps the Dolphins can finally get their rookie fourth-round pick some work as it appears De’Von Achane cannot shoulder a larger workload over the course of a full season.

Josh Whyle, TE, Tennessee Titans - DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $6,500

So Josh Whyle is basically splitting the tight end snaps with Chigoziem Okonkwo. Okonkwo is an affordable option as well who has a few catches on the year. However, I’m partial to Whyle given the discount and the fact he had five targets last week. He caught four of them for 43 yards while Okonkwo has failed to top 20 receiving yards in a game this year. Whyle likely continues to split reps with Okonkwo, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the cheaper option between the two got more run in this matchup.

Alec Ingold, RB, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $400 | FanDuel: $5,500

Ingold is an absolute punt for this slate. It’s a disgusting recommendation but the Dolphins do keep their fullback involved more than most teams in the league. Ingold registered a pair of carries in each of Miami’s first two games but that was largely in short yardage situations. Last week he had four touches and three of them were receptions. Again, this one is hard to project. You’re hoping he can get two or three touches to register may three or four fantasy points.

 

 

 

MNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

Obviously in a game that’s potentially ugly such as this one, we’re interested in the defenses. The Tyler Huntley aspect of the game muddies things up for the Tennessee Titans. Their defense has given up 66 points through three games and have just seven sacks and one forced turnover to their credit. That’s not the greatest of ceilings. Fortunately, they will be going up against one of the worst offensive lines in the league as the Dolphins have surrendered 11 sacks so far.

But if the Dolphins have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, then Tennessee probably has the absolute worst. Will Levis has been sacked 15 times through three games, eight of those came last week against the Green Bay Packers. Moreover, going back to the beginning of 2023, the Titans offensive line has surrendered 79 sacks which is second to just the New York Giants. This is definitely a spot to maybe target the Miami Dolphins over Tennessee simply because there’s no protection for Levis and he’s turning the ball over at an alarming rate. This is even a spot to utilize them at Captain.

The kickers aren’t complete fades, but at the same time I’m downgrading both Nick Folk and Jason Sanders. Volume is key for this position and they’ve combined for eight field goal attempts combined (Sanders has six of them). If the offenses can move the ball and fail to score then that puts the kickers in play. But that definitely has not been the case the last two weeks.

 

 

 

Titans vs. Dolphins DFS Player Pool, 9/30

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