Thursday Night Football delivers a matchup straight out of the NFC East! The Dallas Cowboys visit the New York Giants following a second straight loss and the defense is hard to identify compared to what we saw a year ago. 

On the other side, we’re seeing the emergence of one of the game’s future stars at wide receiver. Malik Nabers has thrived the last two weeks with Daniel Jones at quarterback and on a short week, there’s a chance they can pull off the upset. 

 

 

 

These NFC East matchups hit differently than most and is it too bold to say this is a must-win for both teams? Somebody has to drop to 1-3 so let’s take a look at our top NFL DFS Cowboys vs. Giants DFS picks!

Cowboys vs. Giants DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 9/26

Both teams enter this Thursday night matchup at 1-2. The Cowboys did look like themselves in Week 1 against the Cleveland Browns in that 33-17 win. However, over the last two weeks they’ve surrendered 72 points in back-to-back losses to the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens.

The backfield has been a bit of a disaster in Big D. They’re taking a committee approach, but none of the four running backs have really taken the opportunity and ran with it, although we do have a nice punt play for our TNF DFS picks that you’ll see as you read on. But overall, the Cowboys have underwhelmed severely the last two weeks, but this is clearly a “get right” spot for them.

Similarl to the Dallas Cowboys, the New York Giants have also beaten the Cleveland Browns and that is their only win on the season thus far. While the Cowboys seem to be trending in the wrong direction, is it possible the G-Men are on the rise? 

We’ve seen immaculate play from rookie wideout Malik Nabers the last two weeks. And we’ve seen Daniel Jones provide serviceable play at the quarterback position in addition to a few other players stepping up as well on the offensive side.

I normally tend to think the NFC East gets too many primetime games, but given that both teams are 1-2 I’m interested in the storylines that emerge if either team were to fall to 1-3, especially the Dallas Cowboys. Let’s dig into the Vegas Odds, top TNF DFS picks, weather, and more for Thursday’s NFL DFS Showdown Playbook!

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. Giants TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook:

  • Spread: Cowboys -6 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Cowboys (-265)
    • Giants (+215)
  • Game Total: Over 45 (-112) / Under 45 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook:

  • Spread: Cowboys -5.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Cowboys (-250)
    • Giants (+205)
  • Game Total: Over 45.5 (-105) / Under 45.5 (-115)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Cowboys vs. Giants TNF, September 26th

There is a fair chance we see some precipitation which throws a wrench into our Cowboys vs. Giants DFS picks. The East Rutherford, New Jersey area is looking at rain on-and-off on Wednesday but there are morning storms in the forecast for Thursday. 

Those will die off as the day progresses, but we are seeing about a 50% chance of rain Thursday night in this matchup. Winds are projected to be rather tame and shouldn’t exceed 10mph. Temperature will be in the mid-60’s.

Cowboys vs. Giants Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 4

Because this is a short week, neither team had the day off on Monday as they did walk throughs and released “estimated” injury reports. CeeDee Lamb did pop up with an ankle injury, but again, it’s an estimation that he was still a full participant. I wouldn’t overreact. He’ll be fine for this game.

Dallas did have three players on the defensive side gather a “limited” estimation. Markquese Bell and Caelen Carson were listed as DNP’s while Demarcus Lawrence was a limited participant. Dare I say we keep an eye out and see if anyone of note on the defense is inactive around 6:45pm ET Thursday night?

The Giants also released an estimated injury report early in the week. It’s rather noteworthy that it’s heavier on the defensive side. Adoree’ Jackson and Andru Phillips were listed as DNP’s. Dexter Lawrence, Nick McCloud, and Micah McFadden were also listed as limited participants. This will be another inactive list to closely monitor because we the Giants have racked up 13 sacks in their last two games.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants - DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $15,000

As someone who loves NFL DFS Showdown contests I absolutely love when a rookie, in their fourth career game, is the second-most expensive player on DraftKings. It’s hard to even ask if we’re watching the Malik Nabers breakout when this is probably just going to be the expectation for the rest of his career. But let’s dig in.

According to Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports (and Fantasy Points Data for their endless database), Nabers is tied for the league lead in open targets of 5+ air yards with 11. Amon-Ra St. Brown also has 11 and right behind them are Justin Jefferson (10) and Nico Collins (9). That’s incredibly good company to keep.

If we’re looking solely at Weeks 2 and 3, where Nabers’ best games have come, he’s first among all wide receivers with a ridiculous 55.1% first read target share and through all three weeks he has a 33% target per route run rate which is second to only Rashee Rice.

Nabers is also top 12 among all wide receivers in first downs per route run and yards per route run. He’s doing this is a rookie with Daniel Jones throwing him the ball. In terms of volume, he might just once again get a dozen targets against a defense that hasn’t been able to stop anything of late.

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $11,800 | FanDuel: $14,500

We certainly know what the ceiling is with Lamb, we just haven’t quite seen it yet. He has 24 targets on the year including at least seven in all three games. The gigantic performances haven’t come yet, but in time, they will.

The Dallas Cowboys are playing at a faster pace than a large majority of teams in the league and they’re still throwing the ball more than several teams. Where they struggle is their lack of pre-snap motion and play action rates. The pace and neutral passing situations still benefit Lamb, who didn’t quite get a full training camp in because of his contract situation. And still, he’s been getting a decent workload.

The Giants secondary, on paper, looks decent because they’ve allowed just 559 passing yards in three games. But we haven’t seen them challenged by a good offense, which I still believe the Cowboys possess and this is a great “get right” spot for Lamb who we know can pop off for 30+ fantasy points. In the second game last year between these two teams, Lamb caught 11-of-14 targets for 151 yards and a touchdown. That’s the kind of ceiling we’re talking about.

Devin Singletary, RB, New York Giants - DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $12,000

I don’t particularly think Singletary has a great ceiling. Few in this game have as much upside as Nabers or Lamb. But Singletary has had moments where I’ve thought “I whiffed on not getting more best ball shares.” What makes Singletary a great play for our Cowboys vs. Giants DFS picks is that he can give us a good return on investment based purely on the volume.

He has touched the ball at least 14 times in each of his first three games with the G-Men and he found the end zone in back-to-back weeks. It might also be worth mentioning that he’s lost a fumble in those two games as well.

Singletary has been on the field for 72.9% of the team’s offensive snaps and despite facing eight men in the box on 26.2% of his rushing attempts, he’s forcing avoided tackles at a 41.2% clip. Now his offensive line is still a bit of a work in progress. According to Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports, Singletary faced a stacked box on 69% of his rush attempts in Week 3. His yards before contact were -9 but yards after contact were 74. Only Aaron Jones is averaging more yards after contact (4.02) than Singletary (3.93).

Singletary’s proven he’s actually a pretty decent runner even against eight-man boxes. So, he is a very viable play at Captain because of the involvement thus far. But I wouldn’t do that in more than 15% of your lineups. That may be enough leverage for you if Nabers and Lamb occupy roughly 50% of the total captain exposure. The Cowboys have yielded 557 rushing yards so far through two games.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $16,000

I’m not sure how much needs to be said regarding Dak. He’s the most expensive player on FanDuel’s slate simply because how often quarterbacks are the optimal MVP over there. The rushing upside is likely minimal, but the passing volume has been there.

Not many quarterbacks can say they’ve attempted 30+ pass attempts in their first three games of 2024, but Dak can. Last week’s game script required more from Prescott as he attempted 51 passes and ultimately threw for 379 yards and he put up over 30 fantasy points on DraftKings.

I doubt we see that kind of ceiling in this matchup. The Giants haven’t allowed a ton of passing yards early on. In fact, I actually do like New York’s D/ST in this matchup. But the quarterback position is relatively safe for fantasy production and Prescott threw for 400+ yards and four touchdowns against New York last November. That kind of production would be optimal at Captain. But defensively, the G-Men may have found something in 2024…

Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants - DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $13,000

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I do believe Daniel Jones is a core play, and you especially correlate him with all your Nabers Captain lineups. A friend of mine is a Giants fan and texted me “I’m terrified that Nabers is so elite that he saves Daniel Jones’ job…” And that gave me a good laugh.

But in addition to Nabers saving this guy’s ass, the Cowboys defense hasn’t been very good of late. Over his last two games, Jones has a 64.5% completion rate with four touchdown passes and 52 rushing yards on the ground. Those numbers are rather pedestrian, but by Jones’ standards, they make him look like a league MVP.

The Cowboys haven’t generated a ton of pressure yet, but this is also a short week for both teams. Jones is a core flex pay with any Giants pass catcher at Captain. I can’t say I’d be particularly jazzed about playing Jones at Captain by any means.

Jake Ferguson, QB, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $9,500

I feel that when you’re a tight end coming off 11 targets in a game where you were returning from injury, you’re entitled to make it in here as a core play for our TNF DFS picks. Zach Ertz is 33 years old and even he was capable of racking up 62 receiving yards against the Giants in Week 2.

Ferguson went on to collect six of those 11 targets on Sunday for 95 yards. A big concern I have for Dallas is that so far on the season is that they aren’t getting into the red zone enough. And if that’s the case then they aren’t generating a lot of touchdown opportunities and tight end is a position that is a bit dependent on touchdowns if they aren’t getting volume.

But we did see Ferguson garner volume in his first game back so I’m still good to include him in this section as the price tag still feels a bit suppressed.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

I gave way too much thought to putting Dowdle in the Captain section and then decided to err on the side of caution so as not to be labeled an idiot. There are some things working in Dowdle’s favor, but others that don’t.

Let’s start with the good! Dowdle played 37 snaps against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3 compared to Ezekiel Elliott’s 15, Deuce Vaughn’s 5, and Hunter Luepke’s 30(!). Game script probably has played a role in this next stat but Dowdle has 10 targets in his last two games and he has 11 touches in both outings as well. 

The downside is that neither he nor Ezekiel Elliott have really picked up the torch and ran with it. Dowdle is averaging just one yard after contact. Zeke is at 1.2 and neither has registered a broken tackle. So they aren’t really as evasive as Devin Singletary. Dowdle also has just one run of 10 yards this year. The Cowboys are the only organization, through three weeks, that doesn’t have a QB or RB rush of at least 11 yards.

But the running back position is one of opportunity. I still think there’s upside for more volume for Dowdle, even in the passing game. But touchdown equity might be low and I don’t think there’s a particularly high ceiling here. I’m perfectly happy to use him in the flex though.

Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $8,000

There is another (cheaper) wide receiver on Dallas that I’ll get to shortly, but with Brandin Cooks struggling we’re seeing Tolbert gradually emerge and carve out more of a role for himself on a weekly basis.

He’s caught 9-of-14 targets over his last two games for 124 yards and he found the end zone last week for his second consecutive week of 13+ fantasy points in full PPR formats. He’s played 75% of the offensive snaps in that two-game span with a 15.5% target share. The target share isn’t elite by any means but at this price tag it’s something we can tolerate knowing he’s at least on the field and at a good price.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants - DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $10,000

FanDuel has him priced right based on what we’ve seen lately. For whatever reason, DraftKings is not as “ahead of the curve” so we can take advantage of the pricing over there and he’s worth throwing in some builds as a Captain.

Robinson is locking himself in as the WR2 on the Giants offense. He’s a bit undersized at just 5’8” but don’t forget this guy was a second-round draft pick back in 2023. He’s largely overshadowed because he’s playing with a premiere rookie wide receiver.

Robinson’s only $4,800 and yet he’s a receiver who is averaging eight targets per game. There are receivers in this matchup priced over him that aren’t getting that kind of volume. Nabers and Robinson’s combined target share is higher than 22 other teams combined target share for three receivers.

Robinson’s been great after the catch and if he continues to see the short-to-intermediate targets with Nabers drawing attention deeper down field, then Robinson can chip away and continue to hit value on a weekly basis.

KaVontae Turpin, WR, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $7,000

If there’s a player on this slate that can have that low-cost, high-upside “Isaiah Likely” break-the-slate kind of game, I might say it’s KaVontae Turpin.

Volume has been low, but there are some things that work in his favor. Brandin Cooks is struggling and has only seen eight targets in his last two games. I don’t think Cooks comes off the field in favor of Turpin… Yet…

Turpin is still live though as he caught all three of his targets last week for 51 yards and a touchdown. He’s also utilized in the return game having racked up 165 return yards in three games according to DraftKings. Through those three games the Cowboys are running about 80% of their offensive plays with three wide receivers on the field which is fifth-most in the league.

He is still buried a bit on the depth chart, but he is a bit of a playmaker and deserves praise for the production in a small sample size.

Hunter Luepke, RB, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $800 | FanDuel: $6,500

Need a punt that makes you feel incredibly dirty? Look no further than Hunter Luepke, who only appeared in seven games as a rookie last year. However, Luepke played 30 snaps on Sunday which was seven less than Rico Dowdle, but it actually doubled up Ezekiel Elliott’s total as well.

It seemed like Dallas went Luepke over Zeke in pass protection in the second half and it did seem to help the offense a bit more. For the second time this year, Luepke was able to bring in a pair of receptions and at this price tag, that’s enough to return value for an absolute punt for our TNF DFS picks.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

Well, here we go… Is it too bold to say we can no longer trust the vaunted Dallas Cowboys defense? In Week 1 they faced the Cleveland Browns, the Cowboys returned 17 fantasy points on defense on the back of six sacks, two interceptions, and a touchdown to boot. They only gave up 230 total yards of offense in that game.

But what the hell has happened the last two weeks? The wheels have come off. They can’t stop anything. In Week 2 they were torched by the New Orleans Saints to the tune of 44 points and 432 total yards of offense. Last week they gave up 28 points and 456 total yards to Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. And those last two games? They were at home!

Now on the other side of the ball is Daniel Jones. The offensive line is still a bit suspect, but the Giants have looked somewhat competent running Brian Daboll’s offense. This game, even for a short week, has an implied total of 44 points and the Giants have an implied team total of about 20 points. If Dallas isn’t forcing turnovers and sacks (Jones has only been sacked thrice in his last two games), then they might struggle to pay off this price tag.

Surprisingly, I won’t recommend fading either D/ST. I’ll be building my lineups with several game scripts in mind and can’t completely lay off Dallas. The personnel on that defense is too good to pass up. And even for the New York Giants, they have 13 sacks(!) in their last two games. That’s worth getting at a cheap price of $3,600 on DraftKings.

Both kickers are live for this slate as well. What Brandon Aubrey has done through three games is spectacular returning double-digit performances in all three performances. Have I been annoyed by DraftKings pricing up kickers early in the year? Sure, but Aubrey’s justified his price tag by going 10-for-10 on his field goal attempts early on.

The New York Giants will have a revolving door at kicker. Graham Gano is on IR and Greg Joseph missed a 48-yard attempt after being signed off the Detroit Lions practice squad prior to Week 3. At the end of the day this is a correlation play and this is similarly a position of variance like D/ST.

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. Giants DFS Player Pool: TNF, 9/26

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