Bills vs. Lions Predictions, Picks & Odds: NFL Week 15, Sunday 12/15
NFL fans understand that not all games are created equal. And gamblers especially get that. In terms of entertainment value, there is a big difference between a couple of bottom rung teams squaring off with a 40 point over/under. Luckily, that’s not what we have here.
Both Buffalo and Detroit have their eyes set on a bye week in the first round of the NFL playoffs. And this game has one of the highest over/unders of the season at 54.5 points. This should be a fun one folks and, if you don’t already have some skin in the game, we’re here to offer out Bills vs. Lions predictions for NFL Week 15!
Even if you just want to see the Bills vs. Lions odds and have Bills vs. Lions picks of your own, don’t forget to scroll down at the end to see how you can scoop up a $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign-up bonus!
Bills vs. Lions Predictions For NFL Week 15, Sunday 12/15
The NFL is interesting in how it is set up as obviously some teams play eachother far more than others. The Bears and Lions, for instance, have played 189 times. On the other side of the Great Lakes, the Bills and Lions have actually only played 12 times. That’s the nature of these divisions and conference. The last time they played was 2022 when Josh Allen beat Jared Goff 28-25. Prior to that they last played in 2018. Obviously these are much different teams now.
The Bills this year have three losses to the Texans, Ravens, and Rams. Last week’s Rams game saw an insane 86 points scored in a 44-42 battle. The Lions only have one loss coming at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They have won 11 straight since then.
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen Super Hero
After sending off Stefon Diggs, the Bills have opted for a more balance approach. Rather than have one guy getting 160+ targets each year, they barely have anyone on pace for 100 targets this season. Khalil Shakir would be the closest. They have relied on Josh Allen to distribute the ball and shoulder the load. Last week he became the first quarterback to throw and rush for 3 TDs in the same game.
On defense the Buffalo Bills have been a tough unit, ranking 10th in DVOA per FTN Fantasy. They run a heavy zone scheme that attempts to keep things in front of them. And the return of Matt Milano from a torn bicep should make things even tougher over the middle for tight ends.
Detroit Lions: Firing On All Cylinders
The Detroit Lions no longer need to force the ball to Amon-Ra St. Brown. Not that that is bad idea given how good he is. But they are a much more balanced attack now. They have a great line with two good running backs. They have Jameson Williams to stretch the field. And they have Sam LaPorta as a solid two-way tight end. They spread the ball around and everyone is able to eat. Even Tim Patrick scored two touchdowns last week.
On defense the Lions are just as good, if not better. It’s a shame that Aiden Hutchinson got hurt but a trade for Za’Darius Smith has eased those woes. Per Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com, he’s actually third in pressures in the NFL since joining the Lions. On the backend Detroit runs heavy man to man which can be tough on the corners but has allowed the safeties to thrive.
Bills vs. Lions Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
As promised, the latest Bills vs. Lions odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:
- Point Spread: Buffalo Bills +2.5 (-110) vs. Detroit Lions -2.5 (-110)
- Money Line: Buffalo Bills (+120) vs. Detroit Lions (-145)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 54.5 (-110) vs. Under 54.5 (-110)
Bills vs. Lions: Detroit Lions -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
The Bills are a tremendous team, no doubt. And this should be a great game. But I think what these two teams like to do simply favors the Lions. Not to mention, this game is in Detroit.
The Lions love to run man to man. Which leaves them susceptible to star wide receivers who can beat that coverage. You saw it last week with Puka Nacua having 162 yards. But that’s not really how the Bills are built. They are best dinking and dunking to guys like Khalil Shakir and Sam LaPorta vs. zone. They need Amari Cooper to step up here and he could be in line for one of his better days if he is up to the task. He’s actually yet to play more than 53% of the snaps since joining the team so I wonder if his wrist is bothering him.
The Lions are one of the only teams playing man to man more than half the time. The Bills on the other hand play zone nearly 74% of the time. And that plays right into what guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs do. Tim Patrick is oddly much better vs. zone than man, as Ahaan Rungta of Parlay Science points out. I like the Lions here to win and cover the 2.5.
Bills vs. Lions Injury Report & Latest News
Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:
BUF Bills
- DB Rasul Douglas - Out
- T Tylan Grable - Questionable
- S Damar Hamlin - Questionable
- TE Dalton Kincaid - Questionable
- TE Quintin Morris - Questionable
- S Taylor Rapp - Questionable
- DE Dawuane Smoot - Questionable
- LB Baylon Spector - Questionable
- DE Casey Toohill - Questionable
DET Lions
- LB Trevor Nowaske - Out
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Player News
Panthers released TE Jordan Matthews.
Matthews converted to tight end a few years ago and hasn’t made much noise at the position. The change has, however, likely kept him in the league for a few more seasons. He appeared in four games with the Panthers last year but didn’t record any stats on offense. The Panthers also released or waived WR Dax Milne, C Andrew Raym, and TE Colin Granger.
Dolphins released LS Blake Ferguson.
The team also waived CB Ryan Cooper Jr., DT Neil Farrell and OL Chasen Hines. Ferguson has been the team’s long snapper for five seasons and earned a three-year contract extension just before the 2023 season. He should be able to find work snapping footballs farther than the average snap elsewhere in the league.
DetroitLions.com’s Tim Twentyman believes rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa “could make his earliest impact on special teams.”
It’s not much of a surprise, as most rookies cut their teeth with special teams duties. Twentyman mentioned return duties as a possibility, though the former Razorback never returned kicks or punts in college. At 6'4/212 with 4.43 wheels, TeSlaa is an explosive athlete who never translated his physical traits to on-field production at Arkansas. The Lions clearly saw potential for him to do so in the pros and traded two future third-round picks to move up to No. 70 overall for him. It’s going to be a slow burn for TeSlaa in the pros, making him a dynasty-only fantasy option.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said the team does not “have any feelings on competition” when asked about the quarterback room.
O’Connell was asked about a potential quarterback competition on the Rich Eisen Show Wednesday and was unclear on whether J.J. McCarthy would have to compete to start. He said, “we’ve got an obligation as coaches to put our players in position to attack that competition phase.” O’Connell discussed first putting Brett Rypien and the newly acquired Sam Howell in a position to play before any competition would occur. He continued that McCarthy is “owning it” this offseason and is taking snaps from starting center Ryan Kelly. After missing last season with a torn meniscus, McCarthy has been ramping up workouts in the offseason and is the front-runner to start for the Vikings in 2025. As of now, Howell looks to be reinforcement at the backup spot in case it turns out McCarthy is not ready to start.
Texans re-signed DT Foley Fatukasi.
Fatukasi initially joined the Texans last offseason on a one-year contract. The 30-year-old was a rotational defensive lineman, tallying four tackles for loss and one sack. He returns to Houston for 2025, where he will be a part of a deep Texans front seven.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Tyreek Hill’s second wrist surgery was part of the original plan and his timeline remains unchanged.
Hill announced the second surgery on social media and Pelissero quickly added some context to the situation. The speedy receiver suffered the wrist injury just before the start of the season and it lingered throughout the year, though he never missed a game because of it. If the second surgery truly is a non-story, an offseason to recover might be what Hill needs to return to form after a down 2024 season. On the other hand, Hill is 31 years old, played his worst football last year, and his offense prioritized targets for Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. As it stands, Hill might have the highest risk-reward split in fantasy drafts.