NFL DFS Week 18 Picks, Projections & Playbook for DraftKings & FanDuel

He has everything to play for as the win secures the NFC South and puts the Bucs into the No. 4 seed. They could even land the No. 3 see with the Rams sitting all of their starters. Either way, I expect Mayfield to continue his current trajectory and beat up on a hapless Saints defense that has one of the worst secondaries in the league right now. We all know the ceiling and he could/should be a lock for our cash lineups on DraftKings if we can fit the price. Obviously, we'll look at him for lineups on FanDuel, but I might be more inclined to use him in tournaments as the Lions/Vikings QBs are expected to be uber-chalk this week.

FANDUEL ONLY – Not sure there's really anything to say here. This game has the highest expected total we've seen all year long and this is a battle for not just the NFC North, but also for the No. 1 seed and home-field throughout the playoffs. Our DFS Ownership Projections have Jared Goff with higher ownership which is one of the reasons I like using Darnold more, but also because Detroit is still a run-first team and they like to establish the ground game before opening things up for their quarterback. Kevin O'Connell has the ball in Darnold's hands most of the time and he's thrown for multiple touchdowns in 12 of 16 games this season. If everyone likes Detroit in this game, then Darnold is likely the QB to have to throw more and this Lions secondary definitely has some holes.

FANDUEL ONLY – I certainly won't take Goff off the table, even though I like Darnold more for DFS. If the Lions get things going with Jahmyr Gibbs, then it will open up the passing work against a Vikings secondary that has had it's issues in the second half of the season. Veterans like Stephon Gilmore and Harrison Smith have worn down as the season has progressed and the passing yards allowed over the past six weeks tells that story as well. Again, the 56-point game total says it all. I'll be building two GPP lineups on FanDuel that stack this game – one with Goff under center, one with Darnold.

It's a must-win for the Broncos and Nix's last chance to push past Jayden Daniels for Offensive rookie of the year. Not that he'll win, but a strong effort that helps vault his team into the playoffs would be a big feather in his cap. The Chiefs will be resting their starters, so I don't expect a whole lot of push-back from them. Steve Spagnuolo is a top-flight defensive coordinator so it won't be easy, but a quarterback desperate for a win is someone we like for fantasy purposes.

***ONLY IF THE STEELERS LOSE ON SATURDAY*** It's really as simple as that. If the Bengals beat the Steelers, then the Chargers can improve their seeding and sneak into the No. 5 spot should they beat the Raiders. Given the level of play for the Raiders defense, this would be a fantastic opportunity for Herbert to really shine. I would expect him to really light it up early, set the tone for the game and give the Chargers some fantastic momentum heading into the playoffs next week. 

Have you seen what Smith's contract incentives look like? He could earn up to $6M more if he throws for more than 186 yards, finishes the season with a completion rate of 70.2% and he Seahawks win this final game. That's pretty crazy. Now he's facing the Rams who are resting all of their starters? Come on. I may not be the biggest Smith fan, but we already know this Rams defense was soft as is, so Smith is going to dink and dunk his way through the completion percentage numbers and should have little trouble with everything else. If you need to pay down at the QB position, depending on your build, this is just another way that money talks.

The ultimate pay-down at the QB position and a bunch of narratives to play along with here. First off, it's the revenge-game narrative for Dobbs and his former team, the Arizona Cardinals, have a soft defense and nothing to play for here. We know what the Kyle Shanahan system does regarding the offense and we've watched Brock Purdy go from Mr. Irrelevant obscurity to a solid play at quarterback. Dobbs won't have Deebo Samuel and he may be without George Kittle as well, but he does have his old college teammate Jauan Jennings and a variety of other weapons at his disposal. At this price, he really doesn't have to do much and if he runs a TD in by himself, it's instant profit.

FANDUEL ONLY – Well, duh. If you need me to explain why then you probably shouldn't even be setting up a DFS lineup. Chalk City on FanDuel, so watch your exposure in GPP tournaments. Depending on my builds and final ownership, I may limit how I use him as the Vikings run defense is strong, but I don't want to completely fade him him him him him as he works in the passing game as well.

It's a must-win for the Falcons and they face the worst run defense in the NFL. It is literally as simple as that. If you want more, you can look at the volume he's seen over the course of the season and that he rushed for 92 yards and two scores against the Panthers the last time he faced them.

Taylor provides the stability you want in cash games and the fact that Anthony Richardson is out and won't be poaching goal-line work is important. But I actually love him in GPP tournaments more because his ownership will be significantly lower than that of some f the other higher-priced running backs. He missed the first time the Colts played the Jags but he's built up some serious momentum over these last three weeks, averaging 150 rushing yards on 28 carries per game and five touchdowns in total.

One last hurrah for Guerendo who should have no issues pushing through an Arizona run defense that has allowed over 150 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks. We may see Joshua Dobbs poach a goal-line touchdown, but overall, Guerendo is a great mid-tier option for your budget. The goal for Dobbs in a Shanahan offense is to get the ball into his playmakers' hands and that means plenty of work for Guerendo.

You can already hear the cries of the #BrunchBoy – “One more bottle of Charbs for the tabes!” While the focus will be on Geno Smith and his contract incentives, we know that Ryan Grubb likes giving the volume his running backs need to keep the passing game alive. The Rams, who are resting their starters, ranked 20th in DVOA against the run and have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game this season. Charbonnet should provide you with a very solid floor.

The price continues to go up, making it more and more difficult to land value, but Irving has been an absolute beast here down the stretch. He's played through injuries and yet still has three 100-yard games over his last five and four touchdowns over his last seven. His increased usage in the passing game is also a huge bonus.

***ONLY IF THE STEELERS LOSE ON SATURDAY*** While I do think Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman could still get Dobbins enough work to get the 58 rushing yards he needs for another $150K even if the Steelers win, the smart move would be to keep him on the bench given the injury history. But if the Chargers are playing to improve their playoff seeding, he should be good to go. i only have him as a cash game option though, because I feel like if he hits his number, they could pull him out and utilize their other back-up running backs. Not a daunting task to beat the Raiders. 

Watch the Inactives page and follow the injury news heading into the early slate of games. Pollard is 83 rushing yards and two touchdowns away from and additional $450K in total. If he gets the yards only it's still $250K, so if he's out there, his teammates are looking to get him to where he needs to be. GPP only though because it is a meaningless game and if Pollard struggles early, he could give way to Julius Chestnut. But if he's out there, 83 yards and even just one score would be huge for tournaments at this price.

When Sean McVay tells you he's excited to see what Corum can do with a full workload, we have to pay attention. If we want to get guys like Bijan or Gibbs into our lineups, we need to find a good pay-down for our RB2 or flex. Corum might not be the cheapest starting running back expected to shoulder the full load, but he's probably the best with the strongest upside at this price-point. Jimmy Garoppolo will be under center, so expect a lot of work for Corum. 

The cheapest starting running back on the slate and likely to be chalky AF. The 49ers run defense has allowed an average of 153 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks and Carter is also active in the passing game. We could see DeeJay Dallas eat into his work, but overall, Carter should dominate the touches. Personally, I like Corum more, but the DK discount here is big and if playing in cash games, he should should be pretty close to a free square this week.

FANDUEL ONLY – Let's just get these guys out of the way and then we can look at the rest of the wide receivers. Funny enough, many are looking at Addison more because of the price discount, but the defensive metrics still point towards Jefferson. The price tag is high and it might push him more to GPP tournaments, but in a game of this magnitude and with such a crazy-high point total, are we really going to fade this guy?

FANDUEL ONLY – Absolutely love him and he should see great volume in this game. The Vikings secondary has had its issues over the latter half of the season and with he way the Lions line St. Brown up all over the field, coverage is going to have some problems. Not much else to add here, is there? 

FANDUEL ONLY – Lots of people are pivoting to him because of the price, but, obviously, also because of the performance. In fact, since Coop and I interviewed Addison on the Fantasy Alarm Show right before Week 12, Addison has averaged six catches for 86 yards on eight targets per game and has six touchdowns over that six-game span. Why wouldn't we use him in this game?

FANDUEL ONLY – Typically viewed as the Lions deep threat, Williams has been a monster down the stretch. Over his last three games, he's caught 13 passes for 257 yards and three touchdowns while also getting a rushing touchdown in there as well. I've heard some people discuss fading him for Tm Patrick in a GPP tournament, but I just don't have it in me to fade him if I'm stacking up this game.

He is expected to be the highest-owned receiver on the slate as he is just five catches and 85 yards away from a $3M payout. The Bucs need the win and Baker Mayfield knows his main guy is hoping for a big pay-out. I'm sure something has been discussed with regard to compensation for Baker, so get Evans into those lineups.

So the Eagles are resting al their starters and Nabers is competing with Brock Bowers for the rookie receptions record. He is also competing with Brian Thomas for the most rookie receiving yards this season, so there's a lot at stake for him personally. He is four receptions behind Bowers and 39 yards behind Thomas. While he and Thomas play at the same time, Bowers plays in the 4pm ET slate, so Nabers is going to have to pile on as much as possible and hope that Bowers is forced to chase after him. This should be a big game for him.

He's been an absolute beast this season and would very much like to hold onto the rookie receiving yards title. Mac Jones is locked onto him and he's got a nice, soft match-up against a suspect Colts defense. With everything he's done this season, you shouldn't need any more reasons than that to get him into your lineups.

I hate myself for including him, but this is business. Last week, I was all-in on Adams with Aaron Rodgers stuck on 499 career touchdown passes. Well, neither produced and Rodgers is still stuck on 499, so why wouldn't the same narrative be in-play this week, especially with all of this retirement talk surrounding the QB? If it helps, keep in mind that when the Jets played Miami in Week 14, Adams had nine catches for 109 yards and a touchdown, so there's that.

Watch the Inactives page and follow the injury news heading into the early slate of games. Hill missed Friday's practice with his wrist issue, but with Miami needing the win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, we're hoping to see him play. The Jets will be without Sauce Gardner and the rest of their defense has been a hot mess. I don't love the FD price, but considering what Hill is capable of doing, even with Tyler Huntley under center, this DK price tag is insanely low. If he plays, I'll have him in at least one tournament lineup.

Secretly I also like DK Metcalf, but I'd rather lean on JSN given the role he plays and the target share he's received from Geno Smith over the last several weeks. Smith needs to maintain a 70.2% completion rate to trigger his bonuses, so I expect a ton of short-passing to keep that number up. JSN lines up all over the place and should see a lot of snaps out of the slot to keep Geno in a groove.

***ONLY IF THE STEELERS LOSE ON SATURDAY*** If the Chargers are playing for the No. 5 seed then you know Herbert to McConkeytonkbedonkadonk is full in-play this week. He's been the go-to guy that Herbert has needed since losing Keenan Allen and will continue with that role. His two touchdowns last week are simply a precursor of what's to come.

Not only is is a must-win for the Broncos, but Sutton is also just 82 yards away from a $500K bonus. He is the X-receiver in a Joe Lombardi offense which means targets all day. The last time he faced the Chiefs, he turned nine targets into six catches for 70 yards and a touchdown. If we can get that kind of production out of him, that would be amazing. If we can get more because the Chiefs are resting their starters, then the sky's the limit.

I have some concerns over the Falcons defense and with the way Bryce Young has looked over the last few weeks, this could be more of a game than Atlanta would like. Thielen has been the go-to guy for Young since returning from injury and I highly doubt that changes at all. We locked into him last week and were rewarded handsomely. That could certainly be the case once again.

No Deebo Samuel and potentially no George Kittle means Jennings should be the top target for his old college teammate. Arizona's shaky pass defense should afford Joshua Dobbs with ample passing opportunities and we should get a nice high-floor effort out of him with the potential for even more.

Tough to ignore what happened last week as Joe Flacco leaned much more heavily on Pittman than he did Josh Downs and that turned into 10 targets, nine catches, 109 yards and a touchdown. We've targeted against the Jaguars horrendous pass defense all year long, so why stop now?

Doesn't matter if you're stacking Bucs or just looking for a less-expensive one-of, McMillan has transformed into an absolute monster here in the last few games of the season. We had been waiting all year for someone to take over the Chris Godwin role and McMillan finally stepped into it in a major way. Over the last four games, he's averaged five catches for 60 yards, but even more impressive are the six touchdowns. Against a depleted Saints secondary? Yes, please!

He's been atop the tight end leaderboard all season long and is going for the rookie receptions record. Right now he has a four-catch lead over Malik Nabers who is playing in the early slate, so Bowers will know exactly what he needs in catches and yards to achieve some of these milestones. What should also be interesting is to see whether or not the Chargers are playing their starters. Derwin James being on the field could make things a little more difficult, but not enough to fade the top tight end of 2024.

Yes, Fred Warner can be tough in coverage but he can't do it alone. With Dre Greenlaw on IR and DeVondre Campbell off the team, covering the tight end could be difficult for the 49ers this time around. McBride is second only to Bowers in receptions and receiving yards at the tight end position and he is easily still the most reliable guy to use in any format.

Watch the Inactives page and follow the injury news heading into the early slate of games. Listed as questionable and with no incentives, it's going to be tough to see Kittle playing, but if he does, I expect Joshua Dobbs to lean on him in the passing game. The Cardinals have struggled against the tight end before and one last big effort from Kittle could soften the blow from a rough season for the 49ers.

FANDUEL ONLY – Need we add in analysis here? We know what LaPorta is capable of doing when he is seeing the targets and the Vikings ranked right in the middle of the pack for fantasy points allowed to the tight end position. He's got touchdowns in back-to-back games right now and has four over his last five games.

This is all about chasing incentives. Ertz needs nine catches, 90 yards and two touchdowns to trigger $500K in bonuses. He would need a tremendous game to reach these milestones, but perhaps he and Jayden Daniels have discussed what could be. There's not a lot to love at the position this week, so if you are paying down, this could work.

With Juwan Johnson listed as questionable and with Moreau grabbing two touchdowns over the last three games, this is a pay-down I can get behind. You're not looking at a world of production, but for the price, he doesn't need to do much to pay off even money. We all know how bad Tampa Bay has been against the tight end all year, so why stop targeting against them now?

I'm not a fan of using bad defenses even in good match-ups, but with the must-win mentality of Tampa and the turnover potential from Spencer Rattler and the Saints offense, this is certainly a strong play if you're paying up.

The Chiefs are resting their starters and while Carson Wentz is an NFL quarterback who has seen success in the past, the turnover potential is big here, especially with how string the Denver defense has been all year. Love the price on DK. Hate the price on FD but would still be fine using them if it fits my budget.

They've been an underrated defense all year and while they don't have anything to play for this week, DeMeco Ryans is the kind of coach who wants his defense playing well heading into the playoffs. He can rest the offensive weapons and get them going, but this is too good of an opportunity for turnovers with Will Levis under center for the Titans.

Why wouldn't we look to the Seahawks who are playing for pride and are now facing Stetson Bennett without any of the usual weapons that make the Rams a formidable opponent? Definitely worth the pay-down here.

If you want to get real ugly, then the Giants are here for you. Tanner McKee will be making his first start and the Eagles are resting all of their starters. I'm not saying the Giants completely upset the Eagles, but there is a VERY good chance they do some things to rattle the rookie QB.