NFL DFS Week 14 Picks, Projections & Playbook for DraftKings & FanDuel

Obviously, this match-up against Carolina is incredibly soft and the Eagles are capable of hanging a pretty big number on them in this one. They're allowing the eighth-most passing yards per game, they've allowed 22 touchdowns through the air and we've watched mobile QBs like Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix put up strong numbers against them. I'm all for it, but I'm going to limit my exposure to him to just GPP tournaments only instead of cash. You can certainly run him out there, but based on the cost, the records Saquon Barkley is chasing and the fact that, with a strong lead, Nick Sirianni could probably turn to his back-ups in the fourth quarter, I'm going to lean on other QBs for cash. Still a very strong play for everyone no matter what. Just adding in some personal game thoughts.

Definitely looking to lean on Allen this week and if I'm paying up at then position in cash, I'm leaning more on Allen than I would Hurts. Simply put, this game is expected to be much more competitive. The Rams are fighting for an NFC West title while the Bills are looking to lock up home field throughout the playoffs. We could have some strong back-and-forth here and when that happens, Allen routinely takes the team and puts them on his shoulders. The Rams rank 22nd in DVOA against the pass and even when they faced the Eagles and Barkley ran all over them, Hurts still had 175 passing with a score and then 40 rushing yards added to his totals. The Bills don't lean on Cook like the Eagles do Barkley so I expect this to be one of those games Allen takes over. The 49.5 game total is also giving me the good vibes for this one.

Death, taxes, David Montgomery in the end zone and Jon Impemba putting Mayfield into the QB coach. It's what makes the world go ‘round, right? He’s come off a series of mediocre performances and has been banged-up at practice, but he is officially off the injury report and ready to do battle with the Raiders. It's a great match-up for him to get back to slinging the rock -- the Raiders rank 25th in DVOA against the pass, they've allowed 21 passing touchdowns and opposing quarterbacks have been posting a rock-solid 98.1 passer rating against them. The Bucs defense has been soft in the pass coverage too, so we can expect a little pushback from Las Vegas in this one.

Based on recent DFS Ownership projections, the QBs above are going to be highly-owned, but I have a sneaking suspicion that by the time Sunday morning rolls around Darnold will be at the top of the heap. The mid-tier pricing is so much more favorable, especially for cash games, and Atlanta's pass defense has been reeling during their three-game losing streak. They did just get back slot-corner Dee Alford and if Mike Hughes plays it will be the first time in a while their secondary is at full strength. But this going to come down to a Darnold vs Cousins match-up as the latter wants to show the Vikings they should have stuck with him. But Darnold has been strong after a three-game struggle while his offensive line recovered from the loss of Christian Darrisaw and now he's averaged 270.3 passing yards per game with six touchdowns and no picks over the last three games. With his primary passing weapons all looking strong coming into this game and with the Falcons allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the QB position, Darnold should be a cash game lock for many lineups. 

I've been struggling with this one for a few days and if you watched the DFS Show with me & Jon Impemba, you heard my hesitancy, given the fact that these teams played just two weeks ago, Murray had just an ok game and Mike Macdonald, Seattle's head coach, is a strong defensive mind. But if you're looking for the GPP upside, then Murray fits the bill as he can pop for 50-60 rushing yards on top of some strong passing work at any time. His passing was solid against Seattle the last time (285 yards), so if he can add to that, we could have a big week from him. The Seahawks defense runs middle-of-the-road in most defensive metrics so it's definitely in the realm of possibility that he puts forth a huge effort for us and this game could have some sneaky scoring upside, especially given the fact that both teams are vying for the divisional title here.

As I wrote up above, I think this game has some strong back-and-forth potential. Typically, we do like running against the Bills as they are allowing an average of 121.9 rushing yards per game, but as we've seen since Week 8, the Rams are a pass-first team now that both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are back in action. Over the last six games, Stafford has thrown the ball an average of 35 times for 265 yards per game and has 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions in that span. The Bills defense held the score down last week inside the snow globe, but they allowed an average of 23 points per game in the previous three.    

Yes! The Mayo King is my dirty, disgusting paydown for the week but before you tell me he's giving you the ick, just understand that he is averaging 240 passing yards per game with a 7:2 TD:INT over his last four starts. The completion percentage has been very up-and-down in that span, but this match-up against the Jaguars is a fantastic opportunity for Brian Callahan to let his golden-armed boy go wild. The Jaguars rank near the bottom in almost every defensive metric against the pass and they're giving up the most fantasy points per game to the QB position. The game total is a little low at 40, but considering it's moved up two points in the last couple of days tells me Vegas knows they had it a little low and the sharps were hammering it. The bulk of the points are coming from the Tennessee side, so give yourself a fun pay-down for GPP tournaments and see how great the rest of your lineup looks.

If you're looking at this and expecting me to have some big, analysis-driven write-up about Barkley, just stop. There is no need. The guy is the happiest he's ever been in his NFL career, he's having an MVP-caliber season and he's facing the absolute worst run defense in the league. I don't think I need to add more, but if you want, how about this – Barkley needs one more rushing yard to hit 1,500 for the season which kicks in a $250K bonus and if he hits 2,000 this year, there's another $500K coming his way. Always the team player, he will defer some workload the back-ups' way, but he'll still get his. If you can afford the salary, giddy up!

It's amazing how many bandwagon Kamara fans there are this year. Nice to love on a player after he's posted dominant performances, but the #FAmily knows how hard I was pushing him during draft season when I wrote up the Saints offense in the 2024 Draft Guide. Not only is this an amazing run-blocking scheme created by the masters Kubiak & Dennison, but Kamara is facing a very depleted Giants defense that just lost Dexter Lawrence on the defensive line, Bobby Okereke from the middle linebacker position and a slew of other starters from the front-seven. Oh yeah, and there's no more Taysom Hill to poach the work inside the red zone. I'm expecting a very big day.

The price tag is a bit high for my liking, but what I like about Achane is that, even if he's not productive in the rushing attack, his role in the passing game continues to give him value. He rushed for only 17 yards last week against the Packers, but caught eight passes for 56 yards and a score. He rushed for just 32 yards the week before against the Patriots, but caught three passes for 24 yards and two touchdowns. The Jets rank 27th in DVOA against running back pass-plays and we are very much aware of how explosive Achane can be when Tua gets him the ball out in space. The rushing totals have me on him as a GPP play, though because if I'm paying this price in cash, it's going to be for Kamara.

I don't like the FanDuel price and probably won't use him over there, but on DK, this is a nice mid-tier option for those who don't want to pay all the way up or all the way down for that matter. While yes, this game could turn into a pass-heavy situation, Sean McDermott and Joe Brady want their team to run the football as well and this match-up has sneaky upside for Cook. The Rams actually rank 22nd in DVOA against the run and are allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game this season. Kamara put up 112 against them last week, Barkley tagged them for 255 the week before that and even Rhamondre Stevenson managed 73 yards on them three weeks ago. Cook has seen double-digit carries in six of his last seven games and has 25 red zone carries in hat span. Happy to use him for cash games in lineups I don't use Josh Allen.

While I am bullish on Levis in the passing game, Pollard cannot be ignored as the lead back for this offense against a Jags defense that struggles to stop the run as well. Jacksonville is allowing the 10th -most rushing yards per game and the fifth-most rushing touchdowns. Pollard is also active in the passing game as well. Most are going to be off him because of Tyjae Spears, but last week, Spears only played on 25-percent of the snaps and wasn't much of a factor. If you need a running back to fit the budget and don't want to go dirt-cheap, he'll be a solid option.

This is your cash-game lock pay-down. I could do a hard-stop here, but based on emails and questions I am getting, the community needs a bit more based on the recent news. There's a lot of buzz about Braelon Allen, Sincere McCormick and Zach Charbonnet, but I am locking Guerendo into all of my cash lineups this week. We know the offensive scheme, we know Kyle Shanahan's tendencies and we know Guerendo can be an explosive runner. We also know the Bears are a run-funnel defense that is allowing the eight-most rushing yards per game this season. We knew we were locked into him on Monday when we heard Jordan Mason was hitting IR, so let's block out the rest of the noise from the week because this is the best match-up for any of the Week 14 bargain backs. 

Based on the the news Saturday, I may pivot to Braelon Allen here if Kenneth Walker is not downgraded to out or even doubtful. I like Allen and the match-up is decent, but the Jets also like Isaiah Davis near the goal-line and, of course, Aaron Rodgers still leads the entire NFL in 1-yard touchdown passes. If Walker is out, then Charbonnet becomes the lead back against a Cardinals run defense that has shown some recent improvement, but still allows almost 120 rushing yards per game. But again, it's more about the volume he will see than the actual match-up itself. Two weeks ago the Seahawks ran the ball 22 times (16 for Walker, six for Charbs) against Arizona and in the two games Walker missed earlier in the year, Charbs saw 14 and 18 carries. I still like Guerendo more, but if you need the salary help on DK, Charbs works well. Shout it out to the Brunch Boyz – IYKTK UPDATE: Walker officially out. Charbonnet will start and see the bulk of the carries

There are so many reasons I like using Jefferson this week against the Falcons. The focus on this game is Cousins vs. Darnold so that has me looking for the Vikings QB to lean on his best asset. The Falcons rank 21st in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and they are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. But I think what I love most is that we are likely to see Jefferson at a lower ownership rate than usual because he hasn't had a 100-yard effort in four games and he hasn't found the end zone in his last six. If I can afford to pair him up with Darnold in cash games this week, I will, especially with so many value plays available this week.

You can certainly look at Cooper Kupp as well, especially if you need to save some salary on DK. But I like Nacua because he spends most of his time on the outside where the Bills appear to be weaker than in the slot where Kupp hangs out most of the time. Nacua has also seen a targets advantage in five of the last six games. Ownership should be pretty close for them, so maybe Nacua in some lineups and get some exposure to Kupp in others. But this is my lean for my primary lineups.

He was removed from the injury report and has an absolute smash match-up here against the Raiders. Vegas is allowing an average of 212.3 passing yards per game, but they've allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns this season. Evans is eyeballing another 1,000-yard season (it would be his 11th-straight) and is only a little more than halfway there with five games left. You know Baker Mayfield is watching that and will do whatever it takes to help his teammate achieve that historic milestone. With the soft match-up, I'm expecting a big effort here.

FanDuel Only – I might be in the minority, but I do love the fact that FanDuel uses the Sunday night game as part of its main slate and I always have a slice of it on my lineups. McConkey is the Chargers only reliable wide receiver and he sees a ton of targets week in and week out. He does have a questionable tag due to a knee issue, but he has put in limited practices late in the week and is expected to play. If he's on the field, we can probably expect another strong target share (he's averaged nine per game over his last three) and I will happily use him. If we do hear of any limitations, I have another favorite play from this game you'll find below. 

Would I have preferred Trevor Lawrence under center? Probably. But BTJ and Mac Jones have been working better and better together and he even found the end zone last week. This play is all about the match-up and the player I may have coming back if I do intend to stack Levis and some Titans pass-catchers. The Titans did activate Chidobe Awuzie from IR so their secondary gets a little boost, but he's still working his way back and he isn't shadowing so BTJ is also going to see a lot of Jarvis Brownlee and/or Darrell Baker. That being the case, yes, please. I'm still digging into the Titans game-plan so be sure to keep an eye out for the DFS Dart Board as we are very likely to see another Jags receiver pop up there.

This is not an easy match-up and we just saw Harrison limited to just three catches for 47 yards the last time these teams played. But that was also in Seattle and the weather was bad, so I am willing to come back to the well here for tournaments. If this game does turn into a back-and-forth, Murray will hopefully lean on his downfield target like he did last week when Harrison saw 12 targets against the Vikings. He's seen red zone looks in each of the last three games as well, so the TD-upside is obviously there.

Keep an eye on the injury designation coming in, but after putting in limited practices Thursday and Friday despite a late-week ankle issue, Antonio Pierce says Meyers is good to go. That makes me very happy as this is a fantastic match-up for him. The Bucs are a mess when it comes to defending the middle of the field an they are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. Meyers has averaged 6.4 receptions per game since the raiders traded away Davante Adams and Aiden O'Connell has been leaning heavily on him since taking over for Gardner Minshew. So long as he is playing, I am looking to lock Meyers into all my cash lineups, especially at this price.

We should bust out that Spiderman meme where he's pointing to another Spiderman and just label it Meyers and Shakir. Very similar players who lived in very similar roles, at least until Meyers became the No. 1 target out from Davante's shadow. But Shakir works real well out of the slot and has a favorable match-up against Rams slot-corner Quentin Lake. In fact, the Rams rank dead-last in slot-coverage, according to DVOA numbers. I have him listed for cash because of the target share and strong floor but not in GPP because he hasn't found the end zone since Week 3 and we know how the Bills typically operate inside the red zone. Does that mean we can't use him in tournaments? Of course not. So don't be afraid to use him there if you're feeling it. 

On one hand, I love this play because Jeudy is the leading receiver for a QB who loves to chuck the ball all over the field. The match-up against the Steelers isn't ideal, but they do sometimes have trouble covering the slot and Jeudy at least plays 35% of his snaps from there. On the other hand, I hate this play because everyone is going to be chasing Monday night's totals. Our ownership has him projected as he second-highest rostered receiver, so maybe consider him for cash over tournaments because of that. We don't chase yesterday's points, people, but we cannot ignore him if we are building multiple lineups.

Big fan of Allen and an even bigger fan of how interim coach and OC Thomas Brown is using him. Since taking over for Shane Waldron, Brown has instructed Caleb Williams to lean on Allen much in the way Justin Herbert did in Los Angeles. He is a crisp route runner with great hands, the kind of reliable target you need and want to lean on when working on your quarterback's accuracy. Allen has seen a target share close to 30% since Brown took the offensive reins and should continue to see a heavy workload moving forward. DJ Moore is dealing with a quad issue but is expected to play which makes me love Allen even more because Moore will draw better coverage his way.

Are we all-in for a Ridley revenge-game this week? You have to figure there's some bitterness after the Jags let him go after a 1,000-yard season with eight touchdowns, so look for him and Will Levis to communicate throughout and get him the ball. The Jags rank dead-last in DVOA against the pass and they're allowing the third-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. I can see a VERY strong game here.

I'm stunned with NWI's price on FanDuel and will simply turn to Ridley for the extra $100 it ill cost me. Ridley sees a stronger targets share and has the YAC advantage. But playing on DK, you cannot ignore the $1,000 savings. NWI has seen a steady increase in targets over the last three weeks, has eight touchdowns in his last eight games and continues to be a productive asset for the price. The targets increase definitely helps raise the floor which is why I have him listed for both cash and GPP, but just understand that if he doesn't score, the floor could be lava as he only averages two or three catches per game.

I've said it a million times – opportunity trumps talent in fantasy and DFS. I may not like MVS as a player, but he is now considered the No. 1 receiver in New Orleans and he's been much more productive with the three or four targets he's been seeing over the past three weeks. He's not fully playing the Rashid Shaheed role, but 10 targets turned into seven catches for a total of 242 yards and four touchdowns is what we like. What we like even more is the absence of Taysom Hill. That keeps Derek Carr under center inside the red zone and perhaps the two connect a few more times. The Giants secondary is pretty bad, though they don't give up a ton of yards, however, with a limited pass-rush due to injuries, perhaps Carr gets more time to throw downfield. 

This is a no-brainer for me this week. If you can afford to use Bowers in your TE position, it's worth it. He leads the team in targets, the Bucs rank 31st in DVOA against the tight end and they allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position. The price tag is brutal on FanDuel, but if you're playing on DK, I've been using a pay-down at TE and using Bowers in my flex. His price tag puts him with names like Garrett Wilson and Drake London so it's very comparable in point-potential. 

He's a target-monster for Kyler Murray and just torched these same Seahawks for 12 catches and 133 yards two weeks ago. In act, he's coming off back-to-back 12-catch games. The lack of touchdowns is a bummer, but he more than makes up for it with volume. If he can even come close to what he did to Seattle two weeks ag, it's a win.

I like the play but I don't love the play. Still, the price on DK is super-affordable and we've seen the Falcons struggle against high-volume tight ends. Sweet baby Cade Otton just roughed them up for 80-plus yards and two scores a few weeks ago. The numbers indicate a mid-level match-up for Hock, but this match-up against Atlanta and the battle between Cousins and Darnold has me looking at a variety of Minnesota pass-catchers.

Speaking of sweet baby, 11 pounds, five ounce, swaddled in a super-soft terrycloth blanket Cade Otton, I love this match-up for him against the Raiders. Las Vegas ranks 27th in DVOA against the position and are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points  per game to tight ends. He's the No. 2 target for Mayfield behind Evans and he is routinely leaned on to help move the chains. The production has been meh over the last couple of gams, but I expect a very strong, DFS-worthy effort here. 

I've been flip-flopping between him and David Njoku, but continue to land on Muth due to his reduced price tag. He posted four catches for 59 yards two weeks ago against the Browns and then saw seven targets last week. With George Pickens banged up and very few other pass-catching options, we could see another strong lean on Muth particularly down the sidelines where Russell Wilson likes to throw. The Browns do give up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the position after all.

If you're paying down, Okonkwo becomes a really nice GPP option, especially if you're looking at the Titans passing attack against the Jags who are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the tight end. They also happen to rank dead-last in DVOA against the position, allowing an average of 57.7 receiving yards per game to them. Chig isn't leaned on too often, but he did see six targets last week and has seen four or five fairly often over the past seven or eight games. We like the chunk-yardage he picks up and can be a strong YAC receiver. It's the GPP upside play for the price.

FanDuel Only – As I mentioned above, if McConkey is limited and we opt not to use him but still want a slice of the Sunday Night game, I am a big fan of Dissly this week against the Chiefs. Kansas City's DVOA against the tight end has improved over the course of the season, but they are still allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the tight end. He's been fairly reliable, though last week was a dud. But in this match-up, we expect the Chargers to be throwing the football and that keeps Dissly on our radar.

The Steelers lead the league in takeaways, T.J. Watt is a sack machine and Jameis Winston has yet to be delivered from pick-sixes, though he has turned to the man upstairs for help. Steelers D at home is a lock for me if I'm paying up.

The Panthers are going to struggle mightily this week and the Eagles should be able to apply plenty of pressure to rack up some sacks and maybe even some fumble recoveries. We just watched them dominate the Ravens, so come on…

This is the sneaky play, but if you have watched the Arizona defense recently, then you already know. They've enhanced the run defense over the past few  weeks, they're racking up sacks at an alarming rate and they'e actually 12th in the league in fantasy points. If Geno Smith and his very punchable face struggle, the Cardinals are going to be very opportunistic with turnovers.

Nice and cheap on DK. Not so much on FanDuel. But with Mac Jones under center and the Jaguars reeling on both sides of the ball, the Titans defense is going to have plenty of opportunities to score points this week.