NFL DFS Conference Championship Picks, Projections & Playbook For DraftKings & FanDuel
Published: Jan 26, 2025
The 2025 NFL Conference Championship weekend is set to deliver blockbuster matchups, as four elite teams battle for a chance to reach the Super Bowl.
In the NFC, rookie sensation Jayden Daniels leads the Washington Commanders into enemy territory to face the powerhouse Philadelphia Eagles, headlined by star running back Saquon Barkley.
On the AFC side, two perennial MVP candidates collide as Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills take on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in what promises to be another epic playoff duel.
With star players and high-stakes drama, DFS players have endless opportunities to uncover key value picks and stack their lineups for a weekend of unforgettable football action.
NFL Weather: NFL DFS Conference Championship DFS Impact
- No major weather concerns for Sunday's games. It will be cold in Kansas City but no precipitation expected. Temps for the Commanders vs Eagles game will be in the 40s.
NFL DFS Conference Championship Picks & Preview For DraftKings & FanDuel: Sunday 1/26
NFL DFS Conference Championship: Quarterback Picks
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
The last time we saw Jayden Daniels take on the Eagles he led an amazing comeback, throwing five touchdown passes while rushing for 81 yards.
Yes, this Eagles defense is pretty elite, their defensive front knows how to get after the QB and they understand the play style of Daniels given their own QB in Jalen Hurts but it's hard not to love the swagger we've seen from Daniels and while “swagger” isn't a measurable statistic there are some guys that just know how to win football games and Daniels, so far, looks to have that ability to play within the game, not overreact or panic in the moment and that allows for him to make plays that result in fantasy points.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
The potential league MVP has a chance to once again get the Bills into the Super Bowl with only the Kansas City Chiefs in his way. A year where there were plenty of questions surrounding this Bills offense following the trade of Stefon Diggs, we see Allen was able to make plays with the likes of Khalil Shakir as his top receiver while using his legs for 500+ yards rushing and 12 touchdowns.
The Chiefs have a good defense on all fronts but Allen is a playmaker and I'd expect him to really extend himself in this matchup against the Chiefs to finally get Buffalo over the hump and into the Super Bowl.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes didn't really do much against the Texans from a fantasy perspective, throwing for 177 yards and a touchdown but that was enough to beat Houston in the Divisional Round.
Expectations this week are much higher as we look at a matchup against the Bills with a 48.5 game total.
With all the pass catching weapons at his disposal, I'd look for Mahomes to make some plays to Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy and tight end Travis Kelce this weekend.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
I'm a bit worried about Jalen Hurts this week. Sure, the matchup against the Commanders defense is a good one but Hurts injured his knee last week against the Rams and will be wearing a knee brace this weekend. It's not that I think the Commanders are going to put up a major fight against this Eagles offense but they shouldn't need to lean on Hurts too much in this game, rather, I'd expect them to let Saquon Barkley carry the workload which could limit the fantasy upside for Hurts this weekend.
NFL DFS Conference Championship: Running Back Picks
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Honestly, if you are playing DFS this weekend, expect 80% rostership and maybe even more on Barkley. He was a must play last week against the Rams and he did not disappoint. Now we go into a matchup against the Commanders where Jalen Hurts is not at 100% and Barkley has averaged 150 yards and two touchdowns this season against Washington in their two meetings.
Just like the Showtime Rotisserie, you “Set it and forget it”.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
The Chiefs have a good run defense but Cook is a big part of this Bills offense in both the run and passing game. To control the clock and keep the Chiefs offense off of the field I'd look for Cook to get his share of carries and he's as capable as anyone to break off a big play or two in this matchup.
Isiah Pacheco / Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
This situation is honestly a bit of a mess as both running backs are being used. The Bills run defense has not been good this season. Hunt saw 47% of the offensive snaps against the Texans while Pacheco saw 31%. Hunt was also the better back, totaling 44-yards and a touchdown on eight carries while Pacheco managed just 18 yards on five touches. For those reasons I'm leaning Hunt over Pacheco this weekend but both are playable.
Brian Robinson / Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders
Both backs here are obviously a bit risky given what the expected game flow is going to be. Ekeler will benefit between the 20s if the Commanders are forced to play from behind but if the Washington offense gets into the red zone that would benefit Robinson from the power back standpoint.
Both running backs found success in the first meeting between these two teams with Robinson rushing for 60 yards and a score while Ekeler added eight catches for 89 yards.
NFL DFS Conference Championship: Wide Receiver Picks
Kansas City Chiefs
From a talent stand point there is a lot to like here. A ton of big play upside with Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy leading the charge. We didn't see much from the Chiefs receivers last week against the Texans given the fact that Mahomes only threw for 177 yards but if this game ends up being a back and forth, high scoring affair between the Chiefs and Bills then you can definitely expect to see these Kansas City receivers making plays.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles receivers are in an elite spot but the issue now is whether or not Jalen Hurts is healthy enough to make plays in this game. I'm projecting a heavy run-centric game plan from the Eagles with Saquon Barkley leading the way but if Jayden Daniels starts putting points on the board then the Eagles will need to throw and both A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith are in elite spots to make big plays if called upon.
Washington Commanders
The Eagles secondary has been much improved down the stretch but we still have to look at Terry McLaurin as he just finds a way to find the end zone as the top target for Jayden Daniels. After McLaurin it looks like Dyami Brown is now the man to roster after averaging 90-yards receiving over the last two weeks.
Buffalo Bills
I mean, this is pretty much Khalil Shakir or bust. No other wide receiver on this roster can be trusted to be productive and you will be taking a risk rostering anyone other than Shakir here in this spot. Last week Shakir had six catches on seven targets. The other four receivers on this roster combined for six total targets. That's all you need to know.
NFL DFS Conference Championship: Tight End Picks
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
If there was EVER a time for Kincaid to redeem himself after a lackluster regular season it is now. The Chiefs have been among the worst defensive teams in the NFL against the tight end position and if this game ends up in a shootout I'd expect Kincaid to be open for Allen to make some plays in the middle of the field.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Kelce took some heat for a “down” regular season but he showed up in the Chiefs first playoff game, catching seven passes for 118 yards and a touchdown.
The Bills do have a decent defense against opposing tight ends with Matt Milano but it's the postseason and nobody has better chemistry with Patrick Mahomes than Travis Kelce does.
Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders
Ertz had five catches last week in the Commanders upset win over the Lions which included touchdown. That touchdown was his fourth over the last five games which he played. If the Commanders get into the red zone then the veteran tight end could look to be a target against his former club this weekend.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
Goedert has been good since re-entering the Eagles lineup and if Jalen Hurts is at less than 100% with that knee injury then easy throws to Goedert in the middle of this soft Commanders defense could lead to some nice fantasy points this weekend, especially at a relatively top heavy position.
NFL DFS Conference Championship: D/ST Picks
Philadelphia Eagles
Listen, as scary as Jayden Daniels is, the Eagles defense is still the defense to roster here this weekend. The get after the QB, rack up the sacks and that QB pressure can lead to turnovers and then potentially defensive touchdowns.
Kansas City Chiefs
Betting against Josh Allen on the road with his worst passing totals feels like a good bet. We know Allen has been prone to interceptions in the past and sometimes he tries to do TOO much and take what isn't there to be taken. The Chiefs also have a good pass rush and a strong secondary.
NFL DFS Example Lineups: NFL DFS Conference Championship
| Pos | Player | Team | Opponent | Salary | Proj. Draft% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Patrick Mahomes | KC | BUF | $7,700 | - |
| Pivot | Jayden Daniels | WAS | PHI | $8,300 | - |
| RB | Saquon Barkley | PHI | WAS | $9,800 | - |
| RB | James Cook | BUF | KC | $7,100 | - |
| Pivot | Kareem Hunt | KC | BUF | $6,000 | - |
| WR | Khalil Shakir | BUF | KC | $6,400 | - |
| WR | Dyami Brown | JAC | $5,400 | - | |
| WR | Xavier Worthy | KC | BUF | $6,500 | - |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | KC | $5,200 | - |
| FLEX | Travis Kelce | KC | BUF | $6,800 | - |
| Pivot | Terry McLaurin | WAS | PHI | $7,900 | - |
| DST | Philadelphia Eagles | PHI | WAS | $4,400 | - |
| Pivot | Kansas City Chiefs | KC | BUF | $4,100 | - |
| $59,300 |
Player News
The Athletic’s Zac Jackson reports that Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr. is “absolutely going to be involved in the offense.”
Jackson’s commentary is particularly noteworthy. Back in June, he believed Fannin was “considered more of a long-term project than an immediate contributor.” Jackson now believes the rookie tight end “is ahead of schedule, even if Stefanski won’t directly say it.” Fannin is “going to line up all over the formation,” which fits with his usage at Bowling Green State. Jackson counted Fannin, along with Joe Flacco and Jerry Jeudy, as players whose stock is rising. He counts “the rest of the pass-catching group” among those whose stock is down. Many things must fall Fannin’s way before he can be considered truly re-draft-relevant, but early returns suggest the Browns successfully drafted a capable contributor in Round 3 this year.
Cam Ward completed 2-of-7 passes for 42 yards in the Titans’ preseason Week 2 game against the Falcons.
Ward played three drives in this one, and his arm strength was evident despite the lackluster results. Among the Titans’ expected Week 1 receiving corps, only Chig Okonkwo and Van Jefferson Jr. joined Ward on the field. Neither player earned a target. Ward instead focused on honing his connection with fellow rookie, WR Elic Ayomanor, who caught 2-of-4 targets thrown to him by Ward for 37 yards. Ayomanor is unlikely to be re-draft-relevant this year but he should be rostered in dynasty.
The Browns are “cautiously optimistic” that Shedeur Sanders (oblique) can return to practice next week and play in the team’s preseason Week 3 game against the Rams.
Sanders will not play in the Browns’ preseason Week 2 game against the Eagles tomorrow. Kenny Pickett is rehabbing a hamstring injury and will not play either, though the team is “hoping” that Dillon Gabriel will “wake up feeling good enough” to play on Saturday, after rehabbing a hamstring injury of his own this week. Tyler Huntley will take most reps, if not. Joe Flacco has been bubble-wrapped as the lone healthy, proven player in the room.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports that “there is still a possibility” for the NFL and Rashee Rice to “agree to a settlement on a suspension, that would allow Rice to be suspended at the start of the season.”
Per Pelissero, the NFL initially proposed a suspension lasting 10-plus games. Rice’s representatives argued for a far shorter suspension, in part because “there is no precedent for suspending someone for over half of the season.” With the two sides reaching an impasse, it was determined Rice’s case would be presented before Judge Sue L. Robinson, which could put Rice’s late-season availability at risk. Losing Rice early in the year would sting as well, with high-profile opponents like the Chargers, Eagles and Ravens on tap in Weeks 1-4. Both the team and the league are incentivized to get this issue sorted out as quickly as possible.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports that Kirk Cousins is “finally healthy again and has impressed in training camp.”
Cousins dealt with a throwing arm injury in-season last year, but in the video segment, Pelissero curiously references Cousins’ 2023 Achilles tendon rupture, with regard to Cousins’ current health. The comment seemingly acknowledges that Cousins’ ability to plant and drive off of his surgically repaired right leg was compromised last year. The good news is Cousins’ zip has apparently returned. Pelissero names the Rams as a potential trade partner, given Matthew Stafford’s back injury and Cousins’ familiarity with head coach Sean McVay’s scheme via Falcons’ OC Zac Robinson, McVay’s former understudy. Cousins will not play in the Falcons’ preseason Week 2 game against the Titans tonight.
NBC Sports Houston’s Aaron Wilson reports, Joe Mixon (foot, ankle) “is not considered a lock to be ready for” the Texans’ Week 1 game against the Rams.
Wilson adds that “the Texans will take their time with managing his recovery and will not rush him back onto the field.” Mixon missed the entire offseason and remains out indefinitely, weeks into Texans training camp. Earlier today, Texans OC Nick Caley praised Dameon Pierce for his physical, violent playing style. Observing the backfield rotation in the Texans’ preseason Week 2 game against the Vikings tomorrow will be worthwhile for fantasy managers. In the same report, Wilson quotes Texans owner Cal McNair waxing poetic about his love of old school football: Playing tight defense and fielding a good rushing attack. The Texans’ backfield will be fantasy-relevant in Week 1, whether Mixon is active or inactive.