NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football: Picks, Predictions & Player Props
NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football: Picks, Predictions & Player Props
Our Sunday prime-time action gives us an historic match-up between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers, a battle that has waged on since these teams first met in 1960 and includes three different Super Bowl match-ups. History is great and all, but we’re looking at this through a money lens and that means it’s all about our NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football.
These teams are moving in very different directions right now, so when you’re laying out your NFL predictions, you have a lot to take into account. We’ll look at some of the historical data, how these teams have fared against the spread this season, coaching tendencies, in-game adjustments and then set up our game-flow narrative as we look to make our NFL picks. Let’s dive in so we can finalize our NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football.
NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday Night Football, 10/6
In the overall series, the Cowboys have a 17-16 advantage over the Steelers straight-up. They are also, since the inception of the point-spread, 8-5 against the spread in regular-season games. However, these teams haven’t faced each other since 2020. The personnel on the field and the offensive coordinators are different, but head coaches are the same, and here are a couple of interesting fun facts:
- Under Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys are 0-7 against the spread when facing teams with a winning percentage between 60 and 75-percent
- Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 10-1 against the spread when playing at home following a game in which they trailed by more than two touchdowns at halftime. They also happen to be 103-43 at home under Tomlin’s guidance.
Some interesting numbers, right? Let’s see how much they affect our NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football.
Sunday Night Football Prediction: Sunday, October 6th
When looking to make NFL picks, you need to establish your game-flow narrative. No one is making their NFL predictions for how a game is expected to go and then take a sharp left turn when finalizing their betting card. So, let’s jump in and see how we expect this game to go and then set up our NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football.
It’s going to start on the ground for Pittsburgh actually. The Cowboys defense ranks dead-last in DVOA against the run and they are already allowing the seventh-most ushing yards per game (145.8) and have coughed up eight rushing touchdowns. To make matters worse, the Cowboys are without DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons on their defensive line. We know Arthur Smith is a run-first guy so we are expecting significant volume for Najee Harris with both Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson out for this game. Obviously, Justin Fields will also try to work his rushing magic as well. Dallas may have been able to stymie Danel Jones, but the week before, Lamar Jackson ran for 87 yards and a touchdown against them.
Once the ground game is well-established, look for Pittsburgh to take a few chances through the air. Nothing huge, but with both Trevon Diggs and Caelen Carson questionable, I expect a few shots downfield to get George Pickens involved. We’ll see some Pat Freiermuth and some Van Jefferson, but unless Dallas sells out to stuff the run, there really won’t be much of a need to throw.
On the other side, this is going to be a fantastic battle between the Steelers defense and the Dallas passing attack. The reins to the Cowboys’ rushing attack have seemingly been handed to Rico Dowdle, but this Steelers defense ranks third in DVOA against the run and allow the third-fewest rushing yards per game (86.8) and have only given up one rushing touchdown this season. It’s going to be extremely difficult for him to build any sort of momentum on the ground and when that happens, McCarthy immediately turns to Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.
If Dallas wants to be truly effective on offense, they are going to need to be creative in their passing attack. The Steelers rank 14th in DVOA against the pass and they’re only allowing an average of 174.5 passing yards per game which is ninth-fewest in the NFL. They are going to have to continue lining up Lamb in the slot to get him up against Beanie Bishop, but once the Steelers start clamping down on him, they’re going to need both Jalen Tolbert and tight end Jake Fergison to be at the top of their respective games. If the secondary pass-catchers can gain position and separation from these corners who really don’t rank well, according to Pro Football Focus grades, then they have a chance of keeping this game close. Of course, that offensive line is going to need to hold up against T.J. Watt and company to give Prescott enough time.
Based on the potential game-flow and our NFL predictions, we’re ready make our NFL picks for the NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football.
Cowboys vs. Steelers Best Bet: Sunday, October 6th
Based off what we know about these two teams, the injuries and the projected game-flow, it’s pretty easy to see where our NFL predictions are taking us for the NFL Best Bets for Sunday Night Football. I was happy to see 77-percent of the public money sitting on the Cowboys +3 because you all know how I feel about betting with the public, especially for Dallas games. They’re America’s team because every sucker who wanders in a Vegas sportsbook and doesn’t know football but just wants a little action end up betting on Dallas. Yuck. I don’t think this is going to be a blowout, but we’re locking down the Steelers in this one and are happy to lay the points.
- Pick: Steelers -2.5 (-120 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Picking the game total for this one is right there on the edge as Vegas definitely has the right number at 44 right now. This game has all the earmarks of a 24-20 game, so the question you have to ask yourself – can Dallas get that third touchdown and not settle for two field goals? I like this Steelers defense too much to think they’re going to allow Prescott to get the better of them too often, so as long as Fields doesn’t go into the tank and do something stupid like throw a pick-six, I think the Steelers can hold the offense in check enough to keep this under.
- Pick: Under 44 (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 10/6
- Justin Fields Anytime TD (+125 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Najee Harris over 68.5 rushing yards (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Dak Prescott over 34.5 pass attempts (-125 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Jalen Tolbert over 3.5 receptions (+120 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
**Please check back for more and/or different props as lines are still being posted as of writing this.
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Player News
Dolphins signed No. 13 overall pick DT Kenneth Grant to a four-year contract.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Grant will sign his contract today. The former Michigan defensive tackle is expected to fill a major void left by Christian Wilkins, who left for the Raiders in the 2024 offseason. Grant totaled 32 tackles, three sacks, and seven TFLs in his final season at Michigan and excelled at stopping the run while also generating 27 pressures in his final season, per PFF.
Beat reporter John Hendrix reports that free agent WR Donovan Peoples-Jones is among the 16 players that the Saints will host for their rookie minicamp.
Peoples-Jones last played regular season snaps with the Lions back in 2023, when he caught 13-of-24 targets for 155 yards. He is highly unlikely to return to fantasy relevance at this point but could perhaps sign on as a special teams contributor.
Titans signed fourth-round pick WR Elic Ayomanor to a four-year contract.
Ayomanor will now begin learning behind Calvin Ridley. Although Ayomanor is unlikely to find a meaningful role in year one, dynasty managers should note his status as training camp gets underway this summer. The former Stanford receiver flashed big-play ability in his two college seasons.
Buccaneers signed seventh-round pick WR Tez Johnson to a four-year contract.
Johnson will serve as a rotational deep-threat option for Baker Mayfield. His thin frame (5'10/154) simply does not lend itself to the repeated hits one incurs in a full-time role. Johnson did earn 100-plus targets in his two seasons at Oregon, though. His big-play style make him a better fit in best ball for now, pending any major on-field breakthroughs.
Giants waived DT Casey Rogers.
Rogers was a 2024 undrafted free agent and logged 33 defensive snaps for the Giants in his rookie season. He is credited with zero tackles and/or sacks. He may find his way onto another roster as a practice squad option.
Vikings signed third-round pick WR Tai Felton to a four-year contract.
Felton is quietly in play to challenge Vikings No. 3 WR Jalen Nailor in training camp. Nailor (5'11/190) caught 28-of-42 targets for 414 yards and six touchdowns in his first season as a starter last year, with the latter category buoying his fantasy productivity. Felton (6'1/183), meanwhile, caught 96-of-143 targets for 1,119 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 2.32 yards per route run in his final college season. Fantasy managers should monitor Felton’s training camp reports this summer, as he could have a matchup-based WR5 role if everything falls into place.