NFL Week 11 Best Bets and Prop Bets
Who's ready for some NFL Week 11 picks against the spread? I know I am, especially after the debacle on Thursday night when Joe Burrow and Mark Andrews went down with season-ending injuries, killing most of our bets and player props. It happens. You can't do anything about injuries and you cannot let a losing night because of that alter your process in any way, shape or form. We roll on as if nothing happens and look to Sunday's games to find more ways to make some money. We've got a great slate of game to look at while there are a few too many double-digit point spreads, we know exactly how to attack these games.
NFL Week 11 Best Bets:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
While I hate following the public money (76%), this is a game and pick that just make sense to me and there's no real reason to go the other way. The Browns defense has been fantastic all season long and it seems highly unlikely Kenny Pickett and company are going to be able to put up too many points on them. On the other side, with Cleveland starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson, their offense is either headed right down the toilet or they're going to lean so heavily on Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt, that the clock is just going to perpetually run and help carry us to what should probably be the lowest-scoring game of the entire season.
Pick: Under 33 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos
I'll be the first one to tell you how much I love what Joshua Dobbs is doing with the Vikings right now. Not only do I love the feelgood aspect of the story, but that Dobbs is, more or less, a rocket scientist masquerading as a football player. But the hype is so strong right now, I'm having a very difficult time taking the Vikings, even though I'm not the biggest Denver fan. We've learned that Justin Jefferson will not be activated in time for the game, we're still awaiting news as to whether Alexander Mattison will clear concussion protocol and you know me…when the world starts popping off about Vikings playoff/Super Bowl chances and what awards Dobbs could win, I have to run the other way. I'm not a huge fan of some of the recent hype we're hearing for the Broncos and they're new playoff chances, but I do like the steady improvements we've seen and how Sean Payton is leading this offense.
Pick: Broncos -2.5 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins
If you read the NFL Week 11 DFS Playbook, then you probably know where I'm headed with this one. First and foremost, the Dolphins are a significantly better team than the Raiders, and that's probably being too nice. Mike McDaniel is a superior coach and knows exactly how to handle an upstart team like the Raiders, who have won two in a row. He'll attack them heavily on the ground, especially with the return of De'Von Achane, but he'll also let Tua Tagovailoa sling the rock and find Tyreek Hill downfield for some big games. The Dolphins defense ranks 22nd overall, but we are all very aware of the Miami flu which could run rampant through this Raiders locker room. Just because they live in Las Vegas doesn't mean they are immune to the allure of the Miami nightlife. A case of the Miami flu coupled with baking on the sidelines could be all we need for the Fins to cover this big-ass spread.
Pick: Dolphins -13.5 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans
This could very well be the game of the week with its 48-point game total and two teams with potentially potent offenses and less-than-stellar defenses. I expect to see C.J. Stroud slinging the rock at home as he typically does and I expect Kyler Murray to take another step forward in his return. Not to mention, James Conner who was activated from IR last week and looked liek a beast right from the start. Neither defense will contain the opposing offense and I see this one being a back-and-forth battle all game. I think it stays reasonably close throughout. This game sat at Texans -5.5 for most of the week, but on Saturday, it jumped to six points and while that still works in my favor, I am going to err on the side of caution and use the alternate spread to get that extra half-point back. Not a lot of added juice for the extra, so I'm in.
Pick: Cardinals +6.5 (-120)
Favorite NFL Week 11 Player Props:
- Justin Fields Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
- Brock Purdy over 258.5 passing yards (-115)
- Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 passing TD (+100)
- Sam LaPorta over 4.5 receptions (-120)
- Bobby Okereke Over 9.5 tackles + assists (-145)
- 3-Leg Anytime TD Parlay (+398): Austin Ekeler -150; Brian Robinson -140; James Conner -140
**all lines & odds courtesy of BetMGM
Player News
Free agent Gabe Davis will visit the New York Giants.
Cut by the Jaguars after one season last week, Davis visited the 49ers on Monday. New York would be a reunion of sorts, as he played for Giants coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo. The G-Men already have several wideouts capable of stretching the field, but 26-year-old Davis could still be a decent role player in a strong offense. The problem, of course, is that the Giants profile as anything but, but rookie QB Jaxson Dart is comfortable throwing down the field.
Ravens S Ar’Darius Washington has been diagnosed with a torn achilles suffered during offseason training.
The fifth-year pro became a weekly starter for the first time last season, earning elite PFF marks in the process. He was a restricted free agent this spring but had yet to sign his $3.26 million tender. That’s a tough break, to put it mildly. Achilles timelines have shortened significantly in recent years, but Washington will probably still miss the entire 2025 campaign. The Ravens are protected in part by their first-round selection of fellow S Malaki Starks, but May is not the month you already want to be dipping into your depth. Going on 26, Washington’s career future is murky after he worked so hard to finally become a regular contributor last season.
Chiefs signed fourth-round WR Jalen Royals to a four-year contract.
Royals doesn’t have an obvious and open spot in the receiving corps to build short-term fantasy value with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice operating in the opening 11-personnel package. He may or may not play his way into WR4 duties depending on how the team feels about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Royals has plenty of talent and Brown is on a one-year deal, so there is a future where Royals is more than a bit player for the Chiefs. It likely won’t happen in his first season without injuries in front of him.
Matthew Judon said he “probably” won’t return to the Falcons in 2025.
The Falcons, of course, drafted both Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round. In an exclusive interview with CardPlayer.com — not to be confused with our PokerNews.com James Cook scoop a few days ago — Judon said that his sack total was down because “I dropped (into coverage) on 60 percent of the plays. It’s hard to get a pick and a sack on the same play.” Judon also told Kyle Odegard that “a couple” teams had expressed interest in him but he was in no rush to sign.
Jets released P Thomas Morstead.
Austin McNamara and Kai Kroeger will compete for the Jets punter job this year. The 39-year-old former Saint was the league’s oldest punter last season. If he wants to keep punting, he can absolutely join the tryout circuit or a competition elsewhere. But this is probably a sign that the Morstead’s 16-year career is close to an end at this point.
Lions offensive coordinator John Morton said it’s “going to be a breakout year” for Jameson Williams.
Morton said he’d never “been around someone that fast,” then quickly corrected himself to note that Jhamyr Gibbs is also that fast. Williams came on strong last year with a 58/1001/7 receiving line, but offensive coordinator praise could mean even more targets are coming. It would likely come at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s production if Williams were to truly break out, though there’s plenty for St. Brown to give and still be a top-flight fantasy wideout. It’s risky to read too much into statements like this in the offseason, but the new offensive coordinator telling you he thinks it’ll be a breakout year for Williams is certainly noteworthy.