NFL DFS Saturday Week 16 Picks, Projections & Playbook For DraftKings & FanDuel

We continue the holiday weekend NFL action with a two-game slate Saturday afternoon, and we’ll also see these four teams in action on Christmas Day. For Week 16 we’ll see the Houston Texans visit the Kansas City Chiefs in the 1:00pm ET window followed by an AFC North showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. 

These short slates are tricky, and you need to get creative if you want to take down a tournament on your own. Let’s take a look at the options available to us for this NFL DFS Saturday Week 16 slate on DraftKings and FanDuel!

NFL DFS Saturday Week 16 Picks & Preview For DraftKings & FanDuel: Saturday, 12/21

We have four AFC teams in action Saturday afternoon against battling the College Football Playoffs for ratings. I’m not entirely sure the NFL thought this through, but these are the cards we’re dealt. The Houston Texans will be 3.5-point underdogs on the road in Kansas City with an implied total of 42.5 points. The first game kicks off at 1:00pm ET. 

There’s been a shift and some movement with that line. Earlier in the week it didn’t seem like Patrick Mahomes would suit up and the Chiefs had an implied team total of 19.5 points. But now that Mahomes has been cleared to play, the Chiefs are now the favorites and they have an implied team total of 23 points, which is second highest of the four teams.

At 4:30pm ET we’ll then see the Pittsburgh Steelers go toe-to-toe with the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are currently 6.5-point favorites at home with an implied total of 44.5 points. These two organizations met during Week 11 which resulted in an 18-16 win by the Steelers in a game riddled with strong defensive plays.

I’d like to start the strategy section off by saying two-game slates are among my least favorite that DraftKings and FanDuel can offer. This one differs slightly from what we’ve seen a couple times on Monday Night Football. Those MNF DFS slates usually have overlap. The games kickoff within 30 minutes of each other and the slate is locked. This two-game slate is similar to the Thanksgiving slate. These games won’t be at the same time so once the first game locks, we can see if we need to make any roster changes to maybe gain leverage on a more contrarian play.

For two-game slates like these we have a very consolidated player pool for the NFL DFS Saturday Week 16 picks. We have four quarterbacks to choose from. The same goes for the D/ST position. And the skill position player pool is minimal as well. 

So you have to understand that ownership will be juiced on virtually everybody. And if you have a build with less than $1,000 on the table, you are likely playing a duplicated lineup. So even if it hits, you’re splitting the pot. A good way to submit a unique lineup is by leaving money on the table.

It should also be stated that no player is really off the table for this slate. And you’ll likely submit some lineups that utilize a D/ST against some of your stacks. That’s just how these play out, and with a position of variance, it can work in your favor.

NFL Weather: NFL Saturday Week 16 DFS Impact

Both these games will be played in cold environments. The temperature in Kansas City will be in the high 30’s around kickoff and the wind will be minimal. For a team that plays in a controlled environment, the Houston Texans will be out of their comfort zone playing outside in the Midwest. But with low winds and no precipitation, they may have caught a break.

As of Saturday, there are more aggressive conditions to monitor in Baltimore. It’ll be cold like in Kansas City, but there are stronger winds and gusts to monitor in Maryland. And this game kicks off at 4:30pm ET and sunset is estimated for 4:47pm ET. So in the second half we’ll see the temperatures dip into the 20’s but the winds will be calmer later in the contest.

NFL Injuries: What To Know For NFL Saturday Week 16 DFS

The beauty of the Houston Texans’ injury report is that we already have a few players that have been ruled out. On Thursday the Texans ruled out Folorunso Fatukasi, John Metchie, Juice Scruggs, and Cade Stover. Linebacker Christian Harris is also questionable as of Friday.

The Kansas City Chiefs are in good form as Patrick Mahomes is good to go and will play in this game. Hollywood Brown looks like he’ll be activated off IR to make his 2024 debut. Kansas City has only ruled out tackle D.J. Humphries and slot corner Chamarri Conner as of Friday.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have ruled out Justin Fields and George Pickens. Larry Ogunjobi and Donte Jackson are listed as questionable and DeShon Elliott is listed as doubtful. T.J. Watt did suffer an ankle injury in Week 15, but he practiced in full on Thursday and he looks ready to go for this game.

This matchup would’ve been a great revenge game for Diontae Johnson but the Ravens have already ruled him out as it looks like he’s unhappy with his role since being acquired by Baltimore. Defensive back Jalyn Armour-Davis is also ruled out while Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor are listed as questionable.

NFL DFS Saturday Week 16 Picks: Core Plays

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $8,800

As we alluded to at the top of the article, there are only four quarterbacks to choose from. You could’ve gotten cute and played Justin Fields if you’re a max entry player but even he’s been ruled out. With just two games, Lamar is the best option on the slate.

He didn’t have a great game back in Week 11 when these two teams met. Jackson completed less than 50% of his passes and finished with 15.88 fantasy points on DraftKings. But Lamar has been getting more done with his legs lately with 144 rushing yards in his last two games and he threw five touchdowns against the New York Giants in Week 15.

He ranks first in passer rating, yards per pass attempt, and total touchdowns at the quarterback position. The matchup is difficult, but the Ravens have the highest implied team total on the slate so it’s fitting that we build around the best QB on the board.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $8,100 | FanDuel: $9,000

It was a tossup between Derrick Henry and Collins for this spot. And I figured since I led off with Lamar, then I’ll go with Collins over Henry. Collins is averaging over eight targets per game since returning from injury and he’s coming off arguably his worst game of the season that was salvaged by the fact he scored twice.

I also don’t think the Chiefs secondary has truly been tested, especially since Jaylen Watson got hurt. According to Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports, since Watson was hurt the Chiefs are allowing a 90% catch rate and 8.9 yards per target to receivers lining up on the left side of the field. Before Watson got hurt, they were only yielding a 75% catch rate and 6.8 yards per target.

Collins gets volume and can get the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings. We haven’t quite yet seen him explode for a 30-point performance since he returned but that could definitely happen Saturday afternoon.

Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $8,600

On a two-game slate we can absolutely consider teammates as Core Plays. Collins and Mixon should see plenty of volume and will be heavily rostered which comes as no surprise.

Mixon has seen 17+ touches in every game since Week 7 but he has returned a pair of duds in his last two games. But Mixon benefits and receives touches in any game script. In a positive game script or a blowout, it’s likely he gets 20+ carries. And in negative game scripts, he’s probably involved in the passing game evidenced by three straight games with exactly six targets.

The matchup is tough, let’s be clear about that. Per Fantasy Points Data, the Texans offensive line is brutal in terms of run blocking with just 1.75 adjusted yards before contact per attempt. However, since Week 10 the Chiefs are allowing the 10^th most adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Regardless of the matchup, he’s still an easy play based on the volume alone and he has a dozen touchdowns on the year.

NFL DFS Saturday Week 16 Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $5,900 | FanDuel: $7,200

It will be beneficial to Flowers’ fantasy outlook if Rashod Bateman is able to suit up for this game. Joey Porter tends to shadow perimeter receivers and doesn’t travel to the slot all that often. Flowers gets moved around the field but whenever he’s featured in the slot, he should avoid Porter.

When these teams met in Week 11, the Steelers held all the Baltimore receivers to under 40 receiving yards each. But I do expect a more productive game from the Baltimore offense and Flowers gets volume although the production has declined lately.

He only has four touchdowns on the year but he’s 84 yards away from 1,000 on the season. Flowers is great at gaining separation, he’s fun to watch after the catch, and he has three straight games with at least seven targets. I will also note the Steelers secondary has been burned lately and have allowed 30 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers where they’ve faced the likes of the Bengals, Browns, and Eagles.

Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $6,600

Harris doesn’t spark a ton of inspiration or excitement into our lineups, but he will be involved and get touches. He only touched the ball seven times (surprisingly) in Week 15, but the Steelers only ran 41 offensive plays, and he failed to bring in a pitch from Russell Wilson that technically counts as a fumble for the Steelers quarterback.

But in the seven games prior to Week 15’s dud, Harris had at least 16 carries in each game and he does see work in the passing game. He’s never been an incredibly efficient runner, but he does see volume. When these two teams met in Week 11, he had 22 total touches and while the Ravens are tough to run on, the Steelers racked up over 120 rushing yards on the ground as a team. I will mix in some shares of Jaylen Warren as well, but the workload for Harris just seems safer at this point in the season.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $6,500

He’s far from the player he used to be, and the production has taken a hit this year. But despite the regression he’s still fifth at the tight end position in receiving yards. He has 35 total targets over his last four games with 22 receptions in that span.

Putting it simply, he’s still Patrick Mahomes’ go-to guy in the passing game. In four of his last eight games, he does have at least a dozen targets and he’s still targeted in the red zone. He hasn’t scored since Week 10, but you can make the argument that he’s due.

We’ve also seen the Texans have their struggles against opposing tight ends lately. Sam LaPorta went for 3-66-1 back in Week 10. In Week 11, Luke Schoonmaker saw 10 targets and caught six of them for 56 yards. Chig Okonkwo had a 70-yard touchdown reception against them in Week 12. In Week 13, Evans Engram caught seven passes for 41 yards. 

And last week, Jonnu Smith caught nine passes and found the end zone. So Kelce should see volume and has a good opportunity to put up a good score on either site. And if you need more salary savings, you can consider Noah Gray who has a 26% target per route run rate over the last three weeks.

NFL DFS Saturday Week 16 Picks: Value Plays

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $3,900 | FanDuel: $5,500

Freiermuth has been rolling of late. Muth has been a top eight tight end each of the last three weeks and in that span, he has 12 receptions on 16 targets for 138 yards and a touchdown in each game. That kind of output may not stand out at other positions, but for the tight end spot we’ll certainly take it.

Freiermuth saw six targets with George Pickens ruled out last week and without Pittsburgh’s best pass catcher, this guy just naturally has more touchdown equity and Russell Wilson has been singing his praises of late. He opens up salary and this Ravens secondary is one that does not concern me.

Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $3,300 | FanDuel: $5,200

You can absolutely consider Mark Andrews on this slate as well. But if we’re looking for a solo takedown in a GPP on Saturday, Andrews will attract ownership. He has eight touchdowns on the year, and he’s found the end zone in three straight games.

Likely will probably come in as a leverage play off Andrews. He’s cheaper and sees a wildly inconsistent target share each week. But he still appears on the field for over half the offensive snaps and the wide receiver room is a bit beat up at the moment. Likely did catch four-of-five targets for 75 yards when these teams met in Week 11 and there is some touchdown equity here as well. 

Hollywood Brown, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $5,600

Hollywood Brown seems poised to make his debut in Week 16 after sitting on IR for a vast majority of the season with a shoulder injury. In the offseason the Chiefs signed him to a one-year deal before the team drafted Xavier Worthy. Following his injury, the team signed JuJu Smith-Schuster right before the season started and then they traded for DeAndre Hopkins prior to the trade deadline.

So a lot has happened, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact they initially brought him in to be the guy. It’s hard to tell how much of a role he’ll have in this game. But he has big play upside and is wildly affordable on DraftKings at the minimum price for a wide receiver.

Saturday Week 16 NFL DFS Picks: D/ST

Houston Texans – DraftKings: $3,100 | FanDuel: $4,800

There are only four D/ST’s to choose from for this slate and they’re all on the table. I’ll be making 20 lineups for this slate and will mix all four in accordingly. I won’t highlight each one, but I’ll mention the Texans because they are my favorite on the slate.

The Chiefs offensive line isn’t in the greatest shape and the Texans have a very good pass rush. In four of their last five games the Texans have returned double-digit fantasy points and in those four games they have multiple takeaways.

Despite being the underdogs in this matchup, I do like the Texans and will mostly be utilizing D/ST’s from this game because it has the lower total on the two-game slate. The Kansas City Chiefs are obviously in play as they rank top five in blitz and pressure rate, and they are the favorites in this matchup.

NFL DFS Example Lineups: Saturday Week 16