I recently had a talk with Fantasy Sports Writer Association (FSWA) Hall of Famer Greg Kellog. And he mentioned how far we have come with fantasy football analytics since he started writing decades ago.

How even aDot (average depth of target) is a fairly recent creation. It really made me realize that we are in the golden age of information. How EVERYONE now has access to metrics and analytics. There are even fancy new formats like dynasty, devy, eliminator, and best ball. 

And there are expert fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets for all of them (like our 2024 Best Ball Cheat Sheet, for instance). Once upon a time, this data was not only hard to find, but it also didn’t even exist. But now, it’s right at your fingertips.

 

 

 

And that has made it harder than ever to get an advantage in fantasy football. If everyone has the info, no one has the edge. But there is still one realm where we can get ahead. And that’s by separating public perception from reality. Detaching fact from myth. And no player has more negative perception suppressing their value in fantasy football right now than Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray. 

Once you peel away all the preconceived notions and opinions on Murray, we’re left with a potential fantasy league winner that you can get at a decent value. Plus, with tournaments like Underdog Fantasy’s Best Ball Mania V offering $15 million in prizes, the rewards have never been higher!

 

 

 

Kyler Murray’s Commitment

Perception

The negativity on this topic stems back to the very beginning of his career. In fact, there were questions on whether he was even going to play football at all given that he was also drafted first overall in the MLB draft by the Oakland Athletics. 

He obviously chose football, but those questions will always linger in the minds of some. How committed is he to football? Will he just turn his tail and run to baseball? Compounding that were questions about his leadership skills. We’ve all seen the Call of Duty memes. But there’s more smoke to it than just that. 

Following the 2022 season, offensive lineman Kelvin Beachum said that Kyler Murray “Needs to grow up. Be a man and grow up.” Kelvin said that as a free agent, then the new regime opted to resign Beachum and bring him back. So, maybe it’s not just the video games. 

Reality

We aren’t part of that locker room. So, we really can’t know for sure. We could always quote Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing with his thoughts on Kyler Murray as the franchise quarterback or head coach Jonathan Gannon on Murray’s leadership ability. Heck, we could bring up the recent bonding trip Kyler Murray organized for his teammates to an NBA game just this week. 

But we honestly don’t even need to do that. Because we are talking about fantasy football. Joe Flacco has had incredible success – he’s a Super Bowl winner, SB MVP, and Comeback Player of the Year with a bunch of playoff victories. And he has ONE top 12 QB season in fantasy. 

Deshaun Watson played on absolutely terrible Texans teams and was consistently a top five QB. And we won’t get into any character/leadership issues there. Leave the concerns about winning games up to the Arizona Cardinals fans. We care about fantasy points.

I also cannot stress enough how little I care about Kyler Murray playing video games. Especially while other players are out getting themselves in trouble in the dark of night. We cheer like crazy if Baker Mayfield shotguns a beer at a baseball game, but it’s the end of the world if Kyler Murray plays some Call of Duty in his off time? All that matters to me is that the Cardinals have committed to Kyler Murray as the starting quarterback of this team. Which they obviously have. 

Kyler Murray’s Offense

Perception

The Cardinals are a bad team. They have the worst odds of winning the NFC West at +1300. The over/under with most sportsbooks for win totals is set at 6.5. If you think this team is going to win a lot of games, there is a lot of money to be made with your local sportsbook. And that’s just what happens when you go through a regime change. 

You move on from weapons like Marquise Brown (free agency) and Rondale Moore (trade with the Falcons). When healthy, those guys were the top pass catching wide receivers on this team, with Brown averaging around eight targets a game. The starting running back, James Conner, also just turned 29 last week. Happy birthday to an old workhorse that has never played a full season!

Reality

It’s funny how preconceived notions can linger despite recent changes. And they can survive even when going up directly against our OTHER preconceived notions. The Cardinals did lose those weapons, but they also added the number one wide receiver in the draft in Marvin Harrison Jr. at pick four overall and the number two running back in the class in Trey Benson. 

And they added a tight end in the third round in Tip Reiman to boot. All that to go along with breakout star tight end Trey McBride and promising wide receiver Michael Wilson. Even Greg Dortch has flashed in the slot, so they might not miss Rondale Moore that much. That’s why he was expendable via trade. For the record, I’ve felt that way since 2022. 

But forget adding the generational talent at wide receiver. Was the Cardinals' offense even all that terrible last year as it was? Sure they lost 27-0 to the Browns, but that was with Clayton Tune at QB. With Kyler Murray at QB over the last eight games, even without Marquise Brown, they averaged 22.4 points per game.

That would have slot them in right behind the Houston Texans at 22.7 points per game and the Kansas City Chiefs/Jacksonville Jaguars at 22.2 points per game. That seems like pretty good company to me. And that was before the draft picks and additions to the offensive line like Jonah Williams. The defense might still have some growing pains, but why do we care about that? No one is saying draft the Cardinals defense in your fantasy league.

 

 

 

Kyler Murray’s Talent

Perception

So, Kyler already has the tides trending in the wrong direction, as we laid out. Folks are questioning his commitment. He’s not part of a traditionally great organization – especially lately. And he hasn’t done a whole lot to change that as his record as a starting quarterback is 28-36-1. 

He’s small and he doesn’t play the way a “prototypical” QB does. He scrambles around all over the place trying to make magic happen which gets him into trouble. That was part of the reason why he suffered a serious, season-ending injury in 2022. One that saw him miss half the season in 2023 as well.

Want proof? Go on social media and mention that you think Kyler Murray is a good quarterback. You will see it in the responses. A few of us still believe in Murray, but you’re going to get a lot of people still questioning whether he’s even a franchise quarterback. The same tired discussions will come up. And honestly, they aren’t going to stop until Kyler Murray starts winning more games in real life football. 

Reality

It’s funny to say this under the “reality” section but we don’t care about wins and “real life football”. This entire article is about the perception of Kyler Murray vs. the reality for our fantasy leagues. And the reality of Kyler Murray is this: if you take every quarterback that has ever played in the NFL all time and sort them all by career fantasy points per game, Kyler Murray is top five. In fact, he’s fourth.

Last year, Kyler Murray DID THE RIGHT THING. On a rebuilding team, he waited until he was 100% healthy. When he came back he was right back to his old self. He ran the ball five or more times in every game except one. That creates a tremendous floor – you know how hard it is to run the ball 80+ times and not be a QB1 in fantasy football?  

Even Vince Young and Tyrod Taylor had QB1 seasons. You essentially need to be Tim Tebow or Taysom Hill to run that much and not finish as a QB1 in fantasy. And even on this makeshift Cardinals team, returning from a serious injury, he finished as a top 10 QB in points per game. Now you throw in a full off-season in the new system with a generational talent in Marvin Harrison Jr. plus a bulked up offensive line and the upside for Kyler Murray is tremendous. 

The top QBs off the board in every fantasy draft are the mobile ones in Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, etc. So don’t be shocked when this time next year Kyler Murray is being drafted among them. For now, though, we’ll take advantage of the negativity surrounding Kyler Murray. Who doesn’t love a good bargain?