2023 NFL Weekly Survivor Pool: Week 3 Top Picks & Plays
It’s Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season, and we now have twice the data points we had last week and more actionable information gathered to help gather trends and patterns to make our Survivor pool picks for this week. If you followed our Survivor picks in Week 2, we hit on all five of the teams in last week’s article, so you’re still alive if you did!
We will help you get to the promised land one week at a time with our picks, but in case you’re not familiar with Survivor pools, here’s a quick rundown:
Pick a team that wins in each NFL week. Typically, you choose a team just once, so each selection is incredibly important. Some survivor pools have double-elimination so that you can slip up and still be in the running. Make sure you’re checking out our weekly matchup previews and our Survivor League Strategy in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide as guides toward picking the best winners for each week and developing a strategy. Let’s dive right in with Week 3’s picks!
2023 Survival Pool Picks Record
Week 2: 5-0 (1.000)
Overall: 8-2 (.800)
NFL Week 3 DraftKings Odds, Implied Totals, Spreads, and Over/Under
*All lines current as of 6:00 ET, 9/20/23, courtesy of Vegas Insider*
NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are the toughest team outside of the Atlanta Falcons to get a true read on because are the Cowboys as dominant as their Week 1 40-0 drubbing of the Giants showed? They got a Jets team quarterbacked by Zach Wilson and outmatched them in Week 2.
This week, they get another hapless team in the Arizona Cardinals, who by all accounts have looked more competitive than we’ve given them credit for but are still 12.5-point underdogs at home. This is a matchup of a team with the second-highest implied point total on the road facing the team at home with the lowest implied total of the entire week’s slate.
This is one not to overthink, but if you want to check the Cowboys off your list and not think about it, this is a spot to use them if you’re simply looking to advance to Week 4.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs dropped their home opener against the Detroit Lions and then looked pretty ordinary in Week 2 against Jacksonville in a matchup of two playoff teams from last season. So our typical confidence in the Chiefs is dulled heading into Week 3, but seeing the Bears across from them at home is a spot to get their ducks in a row and build some momentum.
Justin Fields takes way too many sacks, the offense has only run a handful of designed runs for him in two games, and have we mentioned their terrible defense?
The Chiefs have the highest implied point total (30) in Week 3, and the Bears have one of the lowest implied totals as well at 17.5. In a week with many big favorites, this will probably be the chalkiest pick of them all in Week 3, as people may want to save the Cowboys for further in the season but still play a team that’s a heavy favorite at home.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Another team that hasn’t played super well or inspired the level of confidence relative to their lofty expectations before the season is Jacksonville. Before they jet off to London and play the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4, they’ll host the Houston Texans. While the Texans have looked pretty competent on offense in the early going, the Jaguars are still 9.0-point favorites against them. Houston’s offensive line is missing several starters and their defense has been pretty bad.
The Jaguars should jump out fast on offense to help combat the fact that they didn’t score an offensive touchdown in their 17-9 loss to the Chiefs last week. We like the Jaguars this week in a clear “get-right” game. This is a slightly contrarian spot to use the Jaguars since they will have many opportunities against weaker divisional opponents, but this is still a good place to use them and avoid the chalk like Dallas and Kansas City.
Other NFL Week 3 Survivor Pool Options
San Francisco 49ers
While the 49ers could be without Brandon Aiyuk and his shoulder injury that he suffered in Week 3, the Giants are reeling even more without the services of running back Saquon Barkley due to an ankle injury. That saps a lot of firepower from the Giants' offense and puts more pressure on the shoulders of Daniel Jones to move the offense. Jones moved the ball did it capably when he needed to when down against the Cardinals in a big deficit, but against the 49ers? That’s another story. The 49ers are 10.0-point favorites at home and should be able to keep the Giants away in Week 3.
Detroit Lions
This pick could potentially bite, but are we buying a 2-0 Atlanta Falcons team that’s played the Panthers and Green Bay at home? Even with the potential of Amon-Ra St. Brown not being able to suit up thanks to a toe injury, the Detroit Lions are a 3.5-point favorite at home and could be a sneaky pick, given all of the heavy favorites across the slate. The Falcons seem a bit fraudulent, and we can get a sneaky win here, thanks to Detroit.
This will be Atlanta’s first game on the road, and while Bijan Robinson should get his, the Lions should feast on anything Desmond Ridder wants to do passing the ball. Ridder is 0-2 in road starts in his career, and for the first time in 2023, the Falcons should be overmatched by a Lions team in Ford Field.
Player News
Dolphins GM Chris Grier told reporters De’Von Achane (calf) is expected to play in Week 1 against the Colts.
Achane hasn’t been practicing as a preventative measure, but the 23-year-old running back is expected to play against the Colts in Week 1. Surely he’ll be back on the practice field by next week if he’s going to be active against the Colts. While nothing has changed with Achane’s status, the Dolphins continue to project confidence in the third-year back. With the fantasy community well aware of Achane’s calf issue, he could be a value in the middle of the second round as long as he doesn’t suffer a setback.
Texans GM Nick Caserio told reporters Joe Mixon (ankle) will be re-evaluated after four weeks.
Caserio was noncommittal when discussing the 29-year-old running back with reporters. Mixon was placed on the reserve/non-football injury list and is set to miss at least the first four weeks of the season, at which point he’ll be re-evaluated. When asked if he anticipates Mixon playing at all this season, Caserio said, “We’ll see, we’ll take it one day at a time.” Mixon should be off fantasy draft boards at this point. Nick Chubb will begin the year as the Texans’ starting running back with Dameon Pierce and Woody Marks waiting in the wings.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Vikings have acquired Adam Thielen, a conditional seventh-round pick and a future fifth-round pick from the Panthers in exchange for a fifth-round pick and a future fourth-round pick.
The Vikings are essentially getting Thielen, a fan favorite who represents much-needed wide receiver depth, for a future fourth-round pick. Jonathan Jones of CBS reports the team will attempt to rework Thielen’s contract, none of which will be absorbed by the Panthers. For the Vikings, Thielen is a familiar face who had a resurgence last year and can adequately fill-in for Jordan Addison, who is suspended for the first three games of the season. For the Panthers, they get a solid return for a 35-year-old receiver and open up playing time for young receivers Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker.
Bills signed S Jordan Poyer.
Poyer made first-team All-Pro in 2021 and went to the Pro Bowl in 2022 while playing with the Bills. The 34-year-old safety spent 2024 with the Dolphins, where he started 16 games and had 98 tackles. The Bills already have Cole Bishop and Taylor Rapp as starting safeties and Poyer was brought back as a member of the practice squad.
Lions signed S Daniel Thomas.
Thomas had spent his entire five-year career with the Jaguars, but was released earlier this week. The Lions were looking for depth at the safety position since seventh-round pick Dan Jackson went on injured reserve in training camp. Thomas was considered a special teams ace with the Jaguars and figures to have most of his impact on special teams with the Lions as well.
Jaguars have acquired WR Tim Patrick from the Lions in exchange for a 2026 sixth-round pick.
Patrick joined the Lions last year and had 394 yards and three touchdowns. The 31-year-old provided size at 6-foot-5 as well as production. He figures to take on a similar role with the Jaguars, who were looking for a bigger receiver that can also block. For the Lions, rookie Isaac Teslaa could be in line to replace Patrick as the WR3 after a loud preseason where he had three touchdowns. Kalif Raymond will also be in that mix. Detroit could’ve kept Patrick around as a depth option this year, but opted to recoup some draft capital after trading up to take Teslaa. The Lions gave Patrick as $2.5 million contract this offseason that included a $1.25 million signing bonus, which the Lions will retain as a dead cap hit after the trade. Patrick’s fantasy stock was nearly nonexistent with the Lions and doesn’t seem to have improved much at all going to a similarly crowded Jaguars receiver room.