It’s Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season, and we now have twice the data points we had last week and more actionable information gathered to help gather trends and patterns to make our Survivor pool picks for this week. If you followed our Survivor picks in Week 2, we hit on all five of the teams in last week’s article, so you’re still alive if you did!

We will help you get to the promised land one week at a time with our picks, but in case you’re not familiar with Survivor pools, here’s a quick rundown:

Pick a team that wins in each NFL week. Typically, you choose a team just once, so each selection is incredibly important. Some survivor pools have double-elimination so that you can slip up and still be in the running. Make sure you’re checking out our weekly matchup previews and our Survivor League Strategy in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide as guides toward picking the best winners for each week and developing a strategy. Let’s dive right in with Week 3’s picks!

 

2023 Survival Pool Picks Record

Week 2: 5-0 (1.000)

Overall: 8-2 (.800)

NFL Week 3 DraftKings Odds, Implied Totals, Spreads, and Over/Under

*All lines current as of 6:00 ET, 9/20/23, courtesy of Vegas Insider*

NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are the toughest team outside of the Atlanta Falcons to get a true read on because are the Cowboys as dominant as their Week 1 40-0 drubbing of the Giants showed? They got a Jets team quarterbacked by Zach Wilson and outmatched them in Week 2.

This week, they get another hapless team in the Arizona Cardinals, who by all accounts have looked more competitive than we’ve given them credit for but are still 12.5-point underdogs at home. This is a matchup of a team with the second-highest implied point total on the road facing the team at home with the lowest implied total of the entire week’s slate.

This is one not to overthink, but if you want to check the Cowboys off your list and not think about it, this is a spot to use them if you’re simply looking to advance to Week 4. 

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs dropped their home opener against the Detroit Lions and then looked pretty ordinary in Week 2 against Jacksonville in a matchup of two playoff teams from last season. So our typical confidence in the Chiefs is dulled heading into Week 3, but seeing the Bears across from them at home is a spot to get their ducks in a row and build some momentum.

Justin Fields takes way too many sacks, the offense has only run a handful of designed runs for him in two games, and have we mentioned their terrible defense?

The Chiefs have the highest implied point total (30) in Week 3, and the Bears have one of the lowest implied totals as well at 17.5. In a week with many big favorites, this will probably be the chalkiest pick of them all in Week 3, as people may want to save the Cowboys for further in the season but still play a team that’s a heavy favorite at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Another team that hasn’t played super well or inspired the level of confidence relative to their lofty expectations before the season is Jacksonville. Before they jet off to London and play the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4, they’ll host the Houston Texans. While the Texans have looked pretty competent on offense in the early going, the Jaguars are still 9.0-point favorites against them. Houston’s offensive line is missing several starters and their defense has been pretty bad. 

The Jaguars should jump out fast on offense to help combat the fact that they didn’t score an offensive touchdown in their 17-9 loss to the Chiefs last week. We like the Jaguars this week in a clear “get-right” game. This is a slightly contrarian spot to use the Jaguars since they will have many opportunities against weaker divisional opponents, but this is still a good place to use them and avoid the chalk like Dallas and Kansas City.

Other NFL Week 3 Survivor Pool Options

San Francisco 49ers

While the 49ers could be without Brandon Aiyuk and his shoulder injury that he suffered in Week 3, the Giants are reeling even more without the services of running back Saquon Barkley due to an ankle injury. That saps a lot of firepower from the Giants' offense and puts more pressure on the shoulders of Daniel Jones to move the offense. Jones moved the ball did it capably when he needed to when down against the Cardinals in a big deficit, but against the 49ers? That’s another story. The 49ers are 10.0-point favorites at home and should be able to keep the Giants away in Week 3.

Detroit Lions

This pick could potentially bite, but are we buying a 2-0 Atlanta Falcons team that’s played the Panthers and Green Bay at home? Even with the potential of Amon-Ra St. Brown not being able to suit up thanks to a toe injury, the Detroit Lions are a 3.5-point favorite at home and could be a sneaky pick, given all of the heavy favorites across the slate. The Falcons seem a bit fraudulent, and we can get a sneaky win here, thanks to Detroit.

This will be Atlanta’s first game on the road, and while Bijan Robinson should get his, the Lions should feast on anything Desmond Ridder wants to do passing the ball. Ridder is 0-2 in road starts in his career, and for the first time in 2023, the Falcons should be overmatched by a Lions team in Ford Field.