Best Fantasy Football Advice - Week 3: NFL Expert Howard Bender’s Mailbag
So many fantasy football players are sitting here in NFL Week 3 wondering how in the world it got so bad. What happened?
NFL injuries are piling up for marquee players like Cooper Kupp and A.J. Brown, losing quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love make it tough to start guys like Tyreek Hill and Jayden Reed and the tight end position is rapidly turning into a hot mess with lackluster numbers from Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta and injuries to George Kittle and Evan Engram. Is there anybody even left to start this week?
Of course there are. Take a deep breath. No one likes to start 0-2, but it’s not suddenly a lost season. This is certainly a crazy way to start the fantasy football season, it really is just par for the course. It might feel like there are more injuries this year, but it’s really just about the same.
Maybe just bigger names, but every year someone asks if there are more injuries this year than in years past and the answer is still no. Football’s a rough game. Injuries happen. Guys struggle early on. To quote David Byrne, “same as it ever was.”
But you’re not here for calm, soothing words. You’re here for answers. You’ve got start/sit questions, and I’ve got the answers. So, let’s pop open the mailbag and see if we can’t help you out.
NFL Week 3 Fantasy Football Advice: Start/Sit, Waivers & Trades
Bill B. Asks...
- Can I trust Dalton Kincaid this week? I saw your video. Would Greg Dulcich or Zach Ertz be a better option?
As mentioned up above, the tight end situation is getting pretty ugly for fantasy owners and panic is already setting in for those who invested in Kincaid and the others we ranked in the top-five heading into the season.
Again, it’s about practicing patience and understanding that the cream will rise to the top. Of course, you were expecting 10 catches for 100 yards from Kincaid right out of the gate, but it hasn’t been that way and now you want to swap for a fringe guy who may or may not have had a good week. I can’t let you do that.
While Brock Bowers sits atop the tight end leaderboard, who is joining him? Isaiah Likely? Great first week and a ghost in the second. Hunter Henry? Quiet Week 1, a great Week 2 and two catches for nine yards on Thursday. Mike Gesicki? Nothing in Week 1, a good game in Week 2 and not only does he have a calf issue, but he’s going to lose most of his targets when Tee Higgins comes back.
Are you seeing where I’m going with this? Both Kittle and Trey McBride are sitting in the top-seven, but this whole position is riddled with inconsistency. The key here is trusting in the process and investing in players who have premium situations. Kincaid will see more targets.
The Bills are just working through the early season. Guys like him, Sam LaPorta, and Kyle Pitts will all be featured in their team’s passing attacks and their fantasy totals will start to take off. If you try to chase yesterday’s tight end points with guys like Zack Ertz or Tyler Conklin, you’re going to get into trouble. Like Colby Parkinson scored three points while you left Mark Andrews and his 23 points on the bench kind of trouble. Stay the course, trust the process and start Kincaid.
Pat M. Writes...
- Who do I start in my flex between Quentin Johnston, Christian Kirk or Jaylen Waddle?
I chose this question, Pat, because you speak for the thousands of people struggling with injuries, slow starts and tough WR3 lineup issues. And if this is your WR2, then it’s even worse. There are several layers to this question and answer, so let’s just take ourselves through it one player at a time.
It starts with Waddle who lost Tuan and now heads into Seattle with Skylar Thompson under center. My instant feeling is to leave Waddle on the bench this week. Yes, Mike McDaniel is likely to shorten up the passing game to try and play more towards Thompson’s strengths, but I expect an even heavier look to the ground game as Miami tries to slow the pace and control the clock. Maybe they surprise me, but I’m not willing to take that risk given the other options.
Kirk is probably the toughest of the three. With Evan Engram out, we expected Kirk to pick up more targets in the passing game, but that didn’t even come close to happening. Assuming the game plan was to feature Engram, Brenton Strange took a bunch of targets and when the Jaguars fell behind, they kept trying for deeper shots downfield and get the big play from Gabe Davis or Brian Thomas I don’t think they continue down that same path this week against the Bills.
Forget about Buffalo vs. Miami in Week 2. Tua got hurt and the Dolphins passing attack disintegrated. Instead, we’ll look to Week 1 against Arizona where the targets were dominated by Greg Dortch and Trey McBride. The Buffalo corners handled Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison well and Arizona was forced to shorten up their passing game. I expect something similar this week, so I do like Kirk for a rebound here.
And then there’s Quentin Johnston – hottest receiver in football, right? I can make the joke, but if you saw all the QJ questions I’ve gone through, you would understand. He had a fantastic two-score game last week and he’s getting rave reviews for the improvements he’s made from last season.
Now he gets the Carolina Panthers who rank 26th against the pass and while they have only allowed 165 receiving yards per game through the first two weeks because everyone just runs on them all day, they have allowed five receiving touchdowns already. Can I see QJ getting into the end zone again? Yes. Can I see him totaling just 50-odd yards again? Absolutely. That’s the issue with it being a run-heavy scheme against a team that can’t stop the run.
So, it comes down to this. If you are in a full-point PPR scoring format, then I’m still leaning Kirk as I believe he will be leaned on a lot more while Davis and Thomas stretch the field and occupy the cornerbacks. But if it’s half-point or standard, I would just use QJ and chase the touchdown.
Sara K. Wants To Know...
- Rhamondre Stevenson was terrible and I don't think Kenneth Walker is going to play. I need upside. Who would you start between Carson Steele, Jerome Ford or Chuba Hubbard?
It’s amazing how bad it’s gotten so quickly for some people and I’m not saying that to make you feel bad. It’s just the way of the fantasy world right now and with all of these early injuries, your skills at drafting depth are immediately put to the test. I’ll say this – to have these as your choices after losing Walker means you did a great job grabbing mid-to-later round running backs, so great job. Now, who do we start?
The Chiefs backfield is a tricky one to navigate this week. Everyone is saying Steele is getting the first opportunity to lead the backfield and while that may be the case, he is not going to be alone. Samaje Perine still exists, the team promoted Keaontay Ingram from the practice squad and Andy Reid said he could see a path for Kareem Hunt to actually suit up and play some this week.
That’s a lot of options and a lot of risk to put the eggs into Steele’s basket. He profiles much more as a north-south, between-the-tackles plodder and both Reid and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy love the pre-snap motion and getting the running back involved in the passing work. Using Steele, to me, is chasing the touchdown. I don’t think he is going to rack up a ton of yardage. Forty yards and a score? Definitely a possibility.
Hubbard is a guy I want to invest in, but not right now. The Panthers are still sorting things out with Andy Dalton taking over under center and their offensive line looks like a hot mess. Dave Canales wants to run the football a ton, but they need to establish some first before they can really follow through with what the scheme dictates. And against this Chargers defense? Not the place I want to take a shot.
Which brings us to Ford. Most people are scared to use him because D'Onta Foreman was the guy who ran out the clock for the Browns last week. I think that was more situational than anything else and the Browns are going to open up on the ground against a soft Giants defense with their starter.
I’m not going to go crazy with projections here, but the 40 yards and a score I said could happen for Steele could easily happen for Ford as well and possibly all in the first half. He also has the explosiveness to break a big run. We’ve seen him do it in the past and with the way the running lanes can open up in this Giants defense, I would lean here. Steele is a perfectly fine option, but Ford is the guy who, in my opinion, has the higher floor this week.
Fantasy Football Week 3 - NFL 2024
Once again, I do my best to choose questions involving players most often asked about and try to detail my answers so that anyone with these players can take the information and make their own decisions.
If you are still looking for answers, we’ve got you covered. You can find me and the rest of the team in the Fantasy Alarm Discord (just be sure to tag me or send a private DM) or feel free to email me at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.
Let’s dominate Week 3!