NBA Daily Fantasy Picks & Playbook: January 15
Published: Jan 15, 2024
We have a five-game NBA DFS main slate on Martin Luther King Day, Monday, January 15th, on DraftKings and FanDuel. We have a lot of pending news that could open up some much-needed value because there aren't many great value options. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Davis are both questionable and Jaylen Brown has been ruled out. LeBron James, Donovan Mitchell, and Bam Adebayo are taking the floor, even if the other superstars aren't.
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Notable NBA Injury Updates
QUESTIONABLE
- Anthony Davis
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Jaylen Brown – OUT
- Jimmy Butler – IN
- Max Strus – IN
- Kevin Love – OUT
- Aaron Nesmith – OUT
- Bruce Brown – OUT
- D'Angelo Russell
- Patrick Williams – OUT
OUT
PROBABLE
Back-to-Backs
- Indiana Pacers
- Miami Heat
- Oklahoma City Thunder (front end)
Pace Up Spots (Last 10 Games)
Pace definition: Pace is the total number of possessions a team uses in a game.
*key* Green is elite pace of play, Blue is decent pace of play, & Red is slow pace of play.
Green = Fast Paced team
Blue = Neutral Paced team
Red = Slow Paced team
- Pacers: 1st vs. Jazz: 2nd
- Thunder: 10th vs. Lakers: 3rd
- Celtics: 9th vs. Raptors: 6th
Defensive Ratings (Last 10 Games)
- Toronto Raptors: 26th
- Brooklyn Nets: 22nd
- Los Angeles Lakers: 21st
- Indiana Pacers: 13th
- Chicago Bulls: 12th
- Boston Celtics: 8th
- Utah Jazz: 7th
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 6th
- Cleveland Cavaliers: 5th
- Miami Heat: 4th
NBA Game Totals
- Indiana Pacers @ Utah Jazz - 245.5 (UTA -7.5)
- Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors - 241.5 (BOS -7.5)
- Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers - 238.5 (OKC -1.5)
Top Tier Core Plays
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
SGA has only missed one game this year and it came in early November, so if he can play, he’ll play, but this is the front-end of a b2b for OKC. He’s coming off 37 actual last time out and has a great match-up in this spot against the Lakers. Over the last 10 games, the Lakers are 21st in DRtg and 3rd in pace.
LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
I’m pretty skeptical about Anthony Davis’ status here. He’s been probable basically every slate and is now being listed as questionable after a game in which he played 40 minutes and went 5-for-21 from the floor in. LeBron’s fantasy production with or without Anthony Davis remains elite, so if Davis plays/doesn’t, LBJ is firmly an elite option.
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
Mitchell’s coming off arguably his best game of the year scoring 45 points, 12 rebounds, six assists and four steals for 77 DKP. The Cavs are without Garland and Mobley again and without them this year, Mitchell has a 31.3% USG and averages 1.37 FP/min. They could also be without Max Strus and Mitchell could shoulder an even bigger load in that case.
With word that Jaylen Brown didn’t go through shootaround we directly look Tatum’s way who has been on one of late and is the Celtics best fantasy producer this year. He averages 1.43 FP/min without Brown and his usage spike of +5.8% brings it to 36.3%. He’d be one of the best spends, if not the best, of the night if Brown is in fact ruled out. Still in play if Brown plays too.
Mid-Tier Core Plays
We're in the midst of the best stretch of Markkanen's season for sure. He's put up 48+ DKP in four of five games, has three double-doubles over that span, and missed the other two by one rebound each. Utah's been a great home team this game is between the top-two teams in pace over their last 10 games. Markkanen sits at 1.3 FP/min this year, which leads the team.
Jarrett Allen, Cleveland Cavaliers
Since 12/23, a span of eight games, Allen's topped 48 DKP in six of them and 50+ in five. Donovan Mitchell leads the team by a wide margin in usage without Garland and Mobley, but Allen is right behind him in terms of FP/min. He's at 1.33 without those guys and that's an ELITE number. The Bulls have allowed a LOT of DKP to the center position this year too.
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
Whether SGA is in or not, Holmgren is an elite FP producer. He averages 1.28 FP/min this season and that's paired with a 22% USG. His FP/min output is 1.27 without SGA, but his USG rate goes up nearly 2%. This is a nice pace-up spot for OKC and Holmgren here. Obviously good with Jalen Williams too.
Kristaps Porzingis, Boston Celtics
Porzingis doesn't necessarily see a massive FP/min boost without Jaylen Brown, in fact it goes down, but his usage rate goes up nearly 3% and now faces a Toronto front court missing Jakob Poeltl. They're throwing Thaddeus Young, Jontay Porter, and Chris Boucher out there as their center rotation, none of which have any chance against Zinger.
Jordan Clarkson & Collin Sexton, Utah Jazz
One of these two is getting a ton of ownership and one is not. I understand Jordan Clarkson's minutes are seemingly more secure on a nightly basis and he probably has the higher ceiling, but Collin Sexton has been damn good in his own right. Sexton's second on the team in both FP/min (1.16) and USG (27.1%). His minutes dipped recently, but a couple of games had much to do with blowouts and when Utah's needed offense, Sexton's on the floor. I love them both and prefer Clarkson, but in a tournament, pivoting to Sexton could be fruitful.
Value Tier Core Plays
Putting this much faith into Utah is what it is at this point. They're one of the hottest teams in the league and George is playing with confidence off the Jazz bench again. His minutes have ticked up too playing 24 and 27 over the last two, directly cutting into Kris Dunn. George has two 30 FP games over his last four and this is an elite spot for him.
Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics
The last time we saw Jaylen Brown sit out, the Celtics elected to run their big lineup with Tatum at SF, Horford & Porzingis in the front court, and everyone's favorite value today, Sam Hauser, only played 18 minutes. Pritchard in that game played north of 20, the only member of the Boston bench that did so. Pritchard's played well lately putting up 28+ DKP in three of four games and figures to play a prominent role off BOS bench.
Late-News Core Play Section
*Section for players we are considering “core plays” based on late-breaking news & research
- Jontay Porter, Toronto Raptors (starting at C)
- Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers
- Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers (tournaments)
- Buddy Hield, Indiana Pacers
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Player Pool
| $ Tier | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High |  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander  $11,400 |  Jayson Tatum $10,000 |  Anthony Davis $11,200 | ||
 Donovan Mitchell $10,500 |  LeBron James $9,800 | ||||
| Medium |  Collin Sexton $6,700 | Jordan Clarkson $7,300 | Jalen Williams $7,800 | Kristaps Porziņģis $8,600 | Jarrett Allen $8,800 |
| Jrue Holiday $6,900 |  Tyler Herro $8,000 | Lauri Markkanen $8,900 | John Collins $6,300 | Chet Holmgren $8,400 | |
| Derrick White $7,500 |  Bruce Brown $5,800 | ||||
| Low | Keyonte George $5,200 |  Buddy Hield $5,500 | Sam Hauser $4,500 | Rui Hachimura $4,500 | Christian Wood $5,200 |
| Payton Pritchard $4,900 |  Thaddeus Young $4,100 |  Jalen Smith $5,000 | |||
 Jontay Porter $4,500 |
Player News
Kristaps Porzingis (illness) said after Wednesday’s Game 2 loss to the Knicks that his current stamina issues may be related to the problem that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season.
After an illness limited him to 13 first-half minutes in Boston’s series-opening defeat on Monday, Porzingis came off the bench in Game 2. Unfortunately, he could only give the Celtics 14 minutes. Following the game, Porzingis said his current problem may be related to the upper respiratory ailment that sidelined him for eight games late in the regular season. “Probably, probably,” Porzingis said. “I’ve had like ups and downs throughout until this point. Just now, had a big crash. Now, my energy, my everything, hasn’t been good, but who cares? Have to move forward and it will get better from this point.” While Boston’s shot selection was the focus following its two home defeats, Porzingis’ limited availability has also been a factor. He’ll hope to return to full health in time for Game 3 on Saturday afternoon.
Nikola Jokic finished with 17 points (6-of-16 FGs), eight rebounds, six assists, one steal, one block, two three-pointers and six turnovers in Game 2 against the Thunder on Wednesday.
This was Jokic’s worst performance of the postseason, and it came to an end in the third quarter. He fouled out with 1:17 left in the third, which brought his night to a close after he played 32 minutes. OKC was up 41 points when Jokic fouled out, so his night may have been close to over anyway. Jokic dominated Game 1, and the Thunder adjusted. Denver will need other players to step up if they want to have a chance of winning this series, but Jokic will also need to be better than he was in this game.
Michael Porter Jr. struggled on Wednesday and finished with just eight points (2-of-10 FGs), five rebounds, one steal and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Thunder.
MPJ was slightly better in the second half, as all eight of his points came in the third quarter. However, the game was already out of hand at that point after a terrible first half for both Porter Jr. and the Nuggets. MPJ shot 1-of-8 in Game 1, and they’ll need him to be much better moving forward. The series will now shift back to Denver, and MPJ will look to get back on track during the two home games before the series heads back to Oklahoma City.
Russell Westbrook provided a boost off the bench with 19 points (5-of-11 FGs, 8-of-10 FTs), one rebound, five assists and one three-pointer in a 149-106 loss to the Thunder in Game 2 on Wednesday.
Despite an ugly first half for Denver, Westbrook was productive and entered the break with 15 points. He didn’t add much in the second half, though he sat the entire fourth quarter, still it was enough to lead the Nuggets in scoring. Russ has been awesome over Denver’s last five games, and his continued success will be key to the Nuggets winning this series. Though this game was ugly, they still have homecourt advantage in this series. They’ll look to keep it in Game 3 on Friday.
Chet Holmgren recorded a double-double on Wednesday with 15 points (3-of-8 FGs, 7-of-7 FTs), 11 rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks and two three-pointers in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
After struggling in Game 1, Holmgren bounced back and recorded the fourth postseason triple-double of his career, with three of those coming this season. Aside from Game 3 against Memphis, Holmgren has swatted at least two shots in every game during these playoffs, which was a trend that continued in this game despite him only playing 26 minutes. Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein (14/8/5/1/1) will look to continue to limit Nikola Jokic (17 points) in Game 3 on Friday.
Jalen Williams bounced back on Wednesday with 17 points (6-of-11 FGs), four rebounds, seven assists and two blocks in Game 2 against the Nuggets.
Williams was criticized for his poor performance in the Thunder’s Game 1 loss, but he responded well in OKC’s blowout victory. He was on pace for a bigger night, but he only played 26 minutes and sat the entire fourth quarter due to the lopsided score. He shot the ball much better after shooting 5-of-20 in Game 1, and he’ll need that success to carry over into Game 3 in Denver on Friday.