NBA Daily Fantasy Picks & Playbook December 4
We have a two-game NBA DFS main slate on Monday, December 4th, on DraftKings and FanDuel. It's the first day of the NBA in-season tournament quarter-finals. There are a few pieces of news we're waiting on here, but nothing more important than Tyrese Haliburton being questionable against the Celtics tonight. We also know that Kristaps Porzingis is out for Boston tonight. This should be a fun night despite it being just two games.
NBA DFS Tools to dominate tonight's NBA DFS slate!
Make sure to check out today's NBA DFS projections and NBA DFS ownership projections before finalizing your lineups today. We also have the NBA Consistency Report to help identify players that have exceeded value based off their current price tag this season and of course our NBA DFS Lineup Generator!
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Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers
Total: 242.5
Spread: BOS -5.5
NBA Injury Report
Boston Celtics Injuries
- Kristaps Porzingis - OUT
Indiana Pacers Injuries
- Tyrese Haliburton - QUEST
- Obi Toppin - QUEST
- Jalen Smith - OUT
Celtics NBA DFS Breakdown
Pace: 23rd
Defensive Rating: 2nd
This is as good of a spot as it’s ever going to get as Indiana is the fastest paced team in the league while they rank 29th in defense. Considering the minutes Boston plays it’s starters more than most teams and what head coach Joe Mazzulla has played them during the in-season tournament.
With Kristaps Porzingis off the floor, Derrick White has been the recipient of the biggest usage bump on the team (+3.2%) and the 1.1 FP/min is second of the team behind Jayson Tatum. He’s the priority guard for me over the more expensive Jrue Holiday. Holiday is at .91 FP/min without Porzingis on the floor and hasn’t been nearly as good as White of late as he’s hit value at his current price tag just once over his last five games. There’s always a chance Payton Pritchard plays 20 or so minutes, but the floor is also 13, which is the risk you take by playing him.
Jayson Tatum is definitely in a fantastic spot and has the highest ceiling of the Celtics averaging 1.33 FP/min and a 33.4% USG without Porzingis this season, both leading the team. I’d rather get all the way to Tatum than settle in the mid-tier with Jaylen Brown. It’s not that Brown’s a bad play, but he never seemingly strings ceiling games together. The 31% USG is nice, but the 1.04 FP/min is behind Tatum, White and it’s super close to Al Horford who’s $2,000 cheaper. Sam Hauser doesn’t have a game-breaking ceiling, but he does have a very steady dose of 20+ minutes and 20+ DKP.
Al Horford is one of my favorite plays of the slate as he continues to be rock solid for the Celtics on both ends of the floor. Horford’s put up 35+ DKP in three straight games and 33+ in four-of-five while averaging 1.00 FP/min this year without Kristaps Porzingis.
Top Play(s): Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, Derrick White
Secondary Play(s): Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser
Pacers NBA DFS Breakdown
Pace: 1st
Defensive Rating: 29th
We’re just simply awaiting the Tyrese Haliburton news. That’s what we need to proceed here.
We’ll break it down in two ways; with and without him in the lineup.
With Tyrese Haliburton IN;
Haliburton himself is elite if you can build comfortably with the value we have on this slate. He’ll likely be lower-owned because of that fact. Bruce Brown and Andrew Nembhard are secondary plays with Haliburton in while TJ McConnell fits best in MME.
Buddy Hield has averaged 1.04 FP/min with Haliburton, so that’s a comfortable roster, but the uncertainty between Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, and Obi Toppin on a nightly basis is tough to trust. Nesmith and Toppin saw an expended role thanks to the absence of Jalen Smith and the Pacers electing to go small. In the non-Myles Turner second half minutes last game, they went with Toppin at the 5 and didn’t use Isaiah Jackson, for what that’s worth.
Myles Turner has a massive ceiling and I love using him on slates where he’s not getting a lot of ownership. When we see more on that front is when I’ll make my final decision on how much exposure I want of Turner. Isaiah Jackson’s lineup filler and he might be the direct backup to Turner for one half or an entire game. It’s hard to tell what Rick Carlisle is going to do.
If Haliburton is out;
T.J. McConnell - 21.7% USG, 1.34 FP/min (leads team), Tier-1
Andrew Nembhard - 23.4% USG, 1.1 FP/min, Tier-1
Bennedict Mathurin - 26.7% USG (leads team), 1.1 FP/min, Tier-1
Bruce Brown - 22.1% USG (+6.4% bump), .95 FP/min, Tier-1 cash, Tier 2 GPP
Buddy Hield - 17% USG, .84 FP/min, Tier-2
Obi Toppin - 13.2% USG, .9 FP/min, Tier-1 GPP, Tier-2 cash
Aaron Nesmith - 16% USG, .76 FP/min, Tier-2
Myles Turner - 23% USG, 1.27 FP/min, Tier-1 GPP
Top Play(s): TBD
Secondary Play(s): TBD
New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings
Total: 236.5
Spread: SAC -4
NBA Injury Report
New Orleans Pelicans Injuries
- Matt Ryan - OUT
- Larry Nance Jr. - OUT
Sacramento Kings Injuries
- Chris Duarte - QUEST
- Alex Len OUT
Pelicans NBA DFS Breakdown
Pace: 12th
Defensive Rating: 13th
This is the third meeting between these two teams and the Pelicans are 2-0 against the Kings but each of those games were played IN New Orleans.
This rotation got a little murkier with the return of Trey Murphy III, but it didn’t impact CJ McCollum, that’s for sure. He played 38 minutes in his second game from his return. It’s only a 90-minute sample, but CJM has averaged 1.1 FP/min with Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson on the floor. He has, however, definitely taken a backset in terms of usage.
Brandon Ingram having only shooting-guard elgibility isn’t great, but the price and match-up are fine. He’s probably third on priority list of New Orleans spend-ups I’m getting to.
The minutes split between Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones is going to be interesting as the season moves forward and Murphy is ramped up. Murphy played 22 minutes in his return to the floor and Jones played 31 minutes in that game. Ultimately they might both get plenty of run and someone like Jonas Valanciunas loses out on the floor in specific match-ups, this one being one of the possibilities. I’d love getting to Murphy knowing he is going to see a minutes bump and seeing that the field is largely avoiding him. The field is, however, getting to Herb Jones, which isn’t surprising given his ability to stuff a box score.
Getting to Zion Williamson tonight is really, really nice. He’s been awesome lately and is quite possibly playing his best basketball in some time, maybe ever. He’s averaged 1.27 FP/min and has a 28.3% USG rate playing alongside Ingram and McCollum, both of which lead the team. I’m also OK landing on Jonas Valanciunas. We’ve always talked about Valanciunas just needing minutes and over the last six games he’s averaged 30.2 MPG and 32.9 DKP/game. He’s flashed a near 50-FP upside over that span WITH a fully healthy team.
Top Play(s): Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Herbert Jones, Jonas Valanciunas (GPPs)
Secondary Play(s): Brandon Ingram, Trey Murphy III
Kings NBA DFS Breakdown
Pace: 8th
Defensive Rating: 19th
The Kings are looking to get revenge here as they’re already down 2-0 to the Pelicans this year and they finally get their chance at home.
De'Aaron Fox has been on one this year. Absolutely on one. He’s averaging 30.3 points this year, which is fourth in the league, while being 14th in assists and 10th in steals. He’s averaging 50.9 DKP/game this year and is at 59.8 DKP/game over his last four. After Fox at the guard spot, we take a look at Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk. Monk has been on an absolute heater and is much higher owned between the two. The pivot in tournaments is Huerter who’s gone for 30+ DKP in two of three.
Nobody is more boring than Harrison Barnes, but he plays 30+ minutes and can space the floor for them. He’s put up 23.75+ DKP in six of his last seven games. Nobody is getting to Keegan Murray at $6.3K on DraftKings and I can’t blame them. Will he be extended in his second game back? Will he continue to lose time to Malik Monk if Monk makes as many plays as he has? A lot of question marks for a guy that isn’t all to cheap.
Domantas Sabonis is an option to spend up on if you’re comfortable getting there. He’s nearly triple-doubled in each of the two meetings against NOLA and he is ALWAYS on the floor. A slight hat tip to Trey Lyles, but his center only DK eligibility stinks.
Top Play(s): De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Monk, Kevin Huerter (GPPs)
Secondary Play(s): Harrison Barnes, Trey Lyles