MLB Streaks and Trends, Risers and Fallers Week 26: Cole Ragans Rising Heading into 2024 Fantasy Baseball Drafts

As the MLB regular season winds down, so does this Streaks and Trends article. This will be the final installment for the season, and I appreciate every single one of you who have read this article throughout the season. Whether you checked it out once, or have been here since April, I appreciate you being here, and allowing this article to hopefully help your fantasy baseball teams. In this final installment, we are going to take a look at some of the players who saw the biggest rise in their fantasy value for 2024 fantasy baseball drafts, as well as those players whose fantasy value took a hit. Of course, we’ll wrap it up with some of the league leaders and longest active hit streak in the MLB at time of writing. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers heading into 2024 fantasy baseball drafts.

Fantasy Baseball Risers

Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals

What an end to the year for Ragans. As a member of the Rangers, he didn’t make a single start, posting a 5.92 ERA, 5.27 FIP, and 8.88 K/9 across 24.1 IP. Then, Ragans goes to Kansas City, becomes a starter, and posts a 5-2 record with a 2.64 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 11.18 K/9 and a 0.38 HR/9 across 71.2 IP! His slider, curveball, and changeup generated whiff rates of at least 29.5 percent, and the big thing was the uptick in velocity once he got to Kansas City.

Ragans turns 26 in December, and all I’m going to say is this. If you go over to Baseball Savant, you’ll see a grouping of pitchers similar to Cole Ragans based on velocity and movement. The first two guys listed are Shane McClanahan and Jesus Luzardo. Do with that what you will. Just how high will Ragans go in 2024? That’s the big question.

Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros

An offensive minded catcher that can hit for a high average? Yeah, that’s going to be quite valuable in 2024. Across 103 games with the Astros this season, Diaz slashed .282/.309/.540 with 23 home runs, 60 RBI, and 51 runs scored. If you like expected statistics, you’ll love Diaz, because his xBA was .288, his xSLG was .547, and his xwOBA was .366, all of which were higher than his actual numbers! He made a ton of hard contact this year, and his propensity to leave the zone (46.4 O-Swing%) could be an issue moving forward. He refuses to draw a walk, making him more valuable in leagues that don’t factor in OBP, but I don’t expect a massive jump in his strikeout rate because he leaves the zone a lot and whiffs a good bit. He’s very young, has plenty of potential, and assuming that Houston gives him the keys to the kingdom, it won’t surprise me to see him routinely drafted inside the top six or so players at the position.

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Daulton Varsho, Toronto Blue Jays

After hitting 27 home runs and stealing 16 bases in 2022, Varsho didn’t quite live up to the same numbers in his first year in Toronto, as he hit 19 home runs, stole 16 bases, and slashed .218/.284/.384. The big drain on his fantasy value in 2024 is that he is going to lose catcher eligibility, and that was a key piece of his draft price being pushed up so high. A catcher with 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases is incredibly valuable, but an outfielder? A bit less. At time of writing, there were over 25 outfielders with 20+ home runs, and over 30 with 15+ stolen bases. Pair all that with a lackluster batting average and the shine wears off Varsho a bit in 2024.

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

After an impressive 2022 season, Javier’s stock was rather high coming into 2023. However, I don’t envision that to be the same case heading into 2024. His 4.67 ERA didn’t help fantasy managers, but the nearly 10 percentage points drop in his strikeout rate was a massive hit to his overall fantasy value. On top of that, he doesn’t induce many ground balls, so when the strikeouts dropped, the hard hit rate went up, and hard hit balls in the air will do damage at some point, and that happened this year. Despite a similar HR/FB ratio as last year, a higher quantity of fly balls did him in, resulting in a 1.44 HR/9 (1.03 HR/9 in 2022). The strikeouts returned down the stretch of the season, but the home runs and hard contact remained. If his price is reduced enough, he could be a nice bounce back candidate, but we will not be seeing him drafted in 2024 where he was in 2023.

Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com