MLB DFS Playbook May 17: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Published: May 17, 2023
Time for Wednesday baseball! There are some exciting games happening today across the league and plenty of different ways to put together a winning MLB DFS lineup. There is a 5-game slate in the morning available, but today we will be focused on the 7-game main slate kicking off at 7:07 PM EST on both DraftKings and FanDuel. We again have Spencer Strider and Gerrit Cole taking the mound on the same day facing the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers, respectively. Nathan Eovaldi has also been proving himself to be the ace of the Texas Rangers in Jacob deGrom’s absence and gets to face the Atlanta Braves today. Now that all the drama of the Aaron Judge side-eye seems to have dissipated (for what it is worth, I despise the Yankees and don’t think he was cheating, the man is just good at baseball), we can turn our attention back to the rest of the league and a lot of players who are red hot right now. The other exciting news is the New York Mets called up Mark Vientos, who has been tearing up the minor leagues this year. There is no shortage of exciting arms and hitters to target today, and be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the daily MLB projections, MLB DFS rostership projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting!
MLB DFS Playbook: May 17
MLB Weather Updates
Speaking of heating up, it is mostly sunny across the league! Some wind to keep an eye on, though.
Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners 20-25 MPH winds blowing in from the green monster in left field, which for hitters is better than it blowing in from center or right. The wind likes to shift in Boston, though, so keep an eye as it could die down or possibly start blowing out.
DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
There is no Coors to consider in the main slate, and quite a few decent pitchers taking the mound lowers the number of offenses that look super stackable. There are still some great options, though, that we will get into on the hitting side. Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, and Nathan Eovaldi have easily been the best pitchers that are taking the mound today, but you have to pay for them. While they are good enough to warrant paying for them, my preference today is to take a few of the middle pitchers between Corbin Burnes, Chris Bassitt, and J.P. France, who I rank in that order and will discuss further down below. They are still quality arms that you get for a lot cheaper to allow you to pay up for hitting today. On the offensive side, the Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners (although remember to keep an eye on the wind for those two), Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets, and Houston Astros are the best places to target today.
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
Spencer Strider vs Texas Rangers
Gerrit Cole vs Toronto Blue Jays
Nathan Eovaldi vs Atlanta Braves
Best Odds for a Win
Spencer Strider vs Texas Rangers
Corbin Burnes vs St. Louis Cardinals
Brayan Bello vs Seattle Mariners
Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
Corbin Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last couple of years. You are getting him at a discount right now because he has been struggling to start the season. However, struggling Corbin Burnes still has a 3.35 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, which are ace-level numbers. The strikeout numbers have been low, but still has at least 5 strikeouts in his last 4 starts, with 7 in his last outing against the Kansas City Royals. The St. Louis Cardinals have been picking it up a bit more recently, winning 7 of their last 10 but have had an incredibly disappointing season so far. I don’t really care who Corbin Burnes is facing when he is this price, though I am going to trust that he is an ace, and he will get back to complete dominance levels sooner rather than later.
Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays
Chris Bassitt has been downright fantastic over his last two starts. He faced the Pittsburgh Pirates and then the Atlanta Braves, where he pitched 16 innings of scoreless baseball striking out 13 batters and only giving up 6 hits. That included a complete game shutout in his last outing against the Atlanta Braves. Anytime a pitcher can shut out an offense like the Atlanta Braves; they should have your attention. Facing the New York Yankees today, I expect Bassitt to come out firing again today. The Yankee's offense isn’t necessarily scary outside of Aaron Judge and getting to pitch in Toronto today. I think Bassitt is easily the best value play of the day at an insanely low price on DraftKings, but I would still be willing to pay the price on FanDuel as well.
Coming up, it looked like J.P. France was a bullpen arm at best, but so far, he is proving that he can handle starting in the major leagues. His fastball has not been very good, but he is getting by despite that because he is throwing it less than 35% of the time, and his other pitches have all been working great for him. He mostly relies on a fastball, cutter, slider, and curveball mixed with an occasional changeup to left-handers. All those pitches have been working for him, which is allowing him success as a starter for Houston. It is hard to stay if he will be able to stick in the rotation long term, but for now, I am trusting he can keep the quality pitching going against the Chicago Cubs today and you get him at a very reasonable price.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
Boston Red Sox vs Marco Gonzales
Chicago White Sox vs Peyton Battenfield
Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
Justin Turner, 1B Boston Red Sox
Justin Turner, in his last 7 games, is slashing .292/.379/.6.25 with 2 home runs. While Turner might not be the masher he was for a while with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he is still a great hitter and is batting 3rd or 2nd every day in a strong Boston Red Sox offense. The Red Sox have the highest implied run total today, getting to face Marco Gonzales. The Red Sox are possibly my favorite stack today if they can avoid the 20-25 MPH winds blowing in, and Turner is ridiculously cheap for a quality hitter getting to bat right in the heart of the lineup.
Mark Vientos, 3B New York Mets
The New York Mets have called up 23-year-old prospect Mark Vientos. If he gets the start today, he is definitely worth taking at the minimum salary. I don't think the Mets would bother calling him up if he wasn't at least going to be holding a strong-side platoon spot and batting most days. At AAA this year, Vientos is slashing .333/.416/.688 as well as 13 home runs which is only 1 behind the league lead in AAA. Vientos has great raw power but has struggled with his bat-to-ball skills in the past. This season he has cut his strikeout rate from 28.6% in 2022 in AAA to 20.5%, which is his lowest strikeout rate since 2018 in rookie ball. If he can continue the improved plate skills, Vientos has great potential and I am definitely willing to bet on his bat when you get him at the minimum price.
Luis Robert Jr., OF Chicago White Sox
Luis Robert Jr. has been one of the best hitters in baseball since May 1st. He has been the best by wRC+ with a 278 and the second best by OPS with a 1.430, and yet he is still being priced way too low. Facing Peyton Battenfield today, the Chicago White Sox have the third-highest implied run total, so I am not sure why you wouldn’t want to take this discount for the guy who has been their best hitter. This is the biggest lock of the day in my opinion, and I will be putting Luis Robert Jr. in every lineup possible.
Luke Raley, 1B/OF Tampa Bay Rays
Luke Raley continues to tear the cover off the ball. He continues to only start against right-handed pitching, but when the Tampa Bay Rays are facing a right-handed starter, Raley should be a consideration for your lineup. He is slashing .417/.462/.583 in his last 7 games, with 4 of those 7 being multi-hit games for him. He also has a .913 OPS against right-handed pitching this season and already has 8 home runs on the year. I believe his price continues to stay reasonably low because he isn’t playing every day because whenever he is in the lineup, he seems like a steal for DFS lineups.
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