MLB DFS Playbook July 27: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Published: Jul 27, 2023
We have a three-game MLB DFS main slate on Thursday, July 27th, on DraftKings and FanDuel. It’s an interesting slate that’s loaded with top talent on the mound despite it being a small slate. Kodai Senga, Justin Steele, and Dylan Cease are all toeing the rubber and in fairly decent spots overall. We have some hot weather in New York that could help the offenses flourish and a pitchers on the trade block that are looking to increase their stock. Be sure to check out all of our tools including the MLB Lineups page, MLB DFS Projections – powered by FanJections –, MLB DFS Ownership, and all of the rest of our tools HERE! Let's dive into today's playbook, core plays, and top stacks of the day!
MLB DFS Weather Center
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
There could be a delay here, possibly a late-start, but nothing overly concerning. It’s going to be really hot weather with winds blowing out, which gives a boost to the hitters here.
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: 6.5 Ks (+125)
Kodai Senga, New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: 5.5 Ks (-175)
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: 5.5 Ks (-120)
Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 5.5 Ks (-115)
Best Odds for a Win
Kodai Senga, New York Mets: -196
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox: -116
Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals: -110
Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Kodai Senga, New York Mets
Kodai Senga at home has been a different pitcher than Kodai Senga on the road this season. He has a 2.50 ERA at home compared to a 4.17 on the road. He has a .177 BAA compared to a .231 BAA on the road. He averages 21.5 DKP/game compared to 17.6. He’s just more comfortable in New York, and that’s where this game is being played. In July, Washington’s been middle of the pack against right-handed pitching ranking 16th in OPS and 15th in wOBA. Senga faced this Nats team once this year, a team that doesn’t strike out much, and he whiffed seven bats over five innings. He is an elite strikeout arm.
Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs
Look, the Cardinals offense is pretty good against left-handed pitching, but where they’ve struggled most this month is where Steele thrives. Strikeouts. The Cardinals have a 27.3% K-rate in July against lefties, which is the third highest mark in the league, but have an .806 OPS as a team. Steele struck out nine Cards just the other day and has 5+ K’s in five straight games, 6+ in four of five. Steele is 3-0 against St. Louis this year with a 2.95 ERA and a 22.3 DKP/game. Steele profiles well in tournaments considering the Cardinals have one of the highest implied totals of the day.
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
One of the best pitching options of the day is Tanner Bibee who’s flashed an extremely high ceiling this season. He’s put up 30+ DKP in two of his last four outings and has 25+ in three of five. In the month of July, the Chicago White Sox are dead last in OPS and wOBA against right-handed pitching. They also have struck out 25.6% K-rate against right-handers as well. He’ll be quite the popular play at his price point and with the match-up he has.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
New York Mets - 5.00
St. Louis Cardinals - 4.89
Chicago White Sox - 4.65
Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs
It’s hard to get hotter than Cody Bellinder right now who once again went yard yesterday. He’s homered three times over his last five games and has eight bombs since July 8th. Whether he’s traded or not, Bellinger is raking for the Cubs right now. He has a .189 ISO and a .359 wOBA against right-handed pitching this year. Miles Mikolas has struggled a bit with lefties allowing a .150 ISO and .324 wOBA to boot.
Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets
I like the Mets today, but that’s no secret around the industry. The weather is warm and the wind is blowing out. Nimmo has been great against right-handed pitching this year notching a .223 ISO and .357 wOBA. Lefties have a .337 wOBA against Josiah Gray this year, and over the last 30 days, he’s allowed a .250 ISO and a .452 wOBA against LHP.
CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals
As much as I like Kodai Senga tonight, there is no doubt how good CJ Abrams has been of late. During the month of July, Abrams is hitting .338 with a .936 OPS, .213 ISO, and .398 wOBA and has 11 SBs to boot. That’s helped him ramp up his numbers this year to a .179 ISO and .326 wOBA against righties overall. Over the last 30 days, those numbers spike to a .204 ISO and .367 wOBA. If and when he gets on, he’s going, and he can poke one out of the park from time to time as well, especially with 15 MPH winds blowing out tonight.
Miles Mastrobuoni, Chicago Cubs
Mastrobuoni has been surprisingly good lately and although he doesn’t have a massive ceiling, he’s been contributing across the board. He’s stolen a bag in back-to-back and homered the other day as well. He’s batting .321 over his last 10 games with four stolen bases. He’s a really solid value overall.
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Player Pool
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