MLB DFS Playbook April 21: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel

Welcome to the MLB DFS Playbook for April 21! The 2023 MLB season is cruising along very nicely and we are finally starting to which hot starts we can believe in and which ones are nothing more than over-inflated flash-in-the-pan stats. The Fantasy Alarm team is dissecting players every day and with that, we have built some outstanding playbooks for our subscribers. So, who are the top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel for the DFS main slate tonight? Let’s get to it, and, as always, let me remind you, as you move through today’s DFS Playbook, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, take in the daily MLB projections, follow the MLB DFS Ownership projections and maybe even take our MLB DFS Lineup Generator for a spin. With so much knowledge at your fingertips, it’s going to be tough to not see green no matter if you’re playing cash games or GPP tournaments. 

MLB DFS Playbook: April 21

MLB Weather Updates

• MIA/CLE – Storms during the day which should clear by the first pitch but more moving in late which could affect the game.
• WAS/MIN – They’re saying snow in addition to cold and windy so keep a watchful eye on potential postponement

DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts

If you listened to the Friday morning MLB DFS Livestream with me and James Grande, then you already have a pretty good idea as to where I am headed tonight. Pitching-wise, Shohei Ohtani is going to be a lock for me. I could build a lineup to two high-priced pitchers, but I am leaning towards a serious pay-down so I can get some prime, high-priced bats into the lineup as well. For hitters, we are targeting against a few hurlers such as Steven Matz, Joey Lucchesi and Michael Lorenzen, but don’t be surprised to see me also picking on Braxton Garrett with right-handed bats and even Nick Pivetta with a multitude of Brewers.

Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers

Top Options for Strikeouts

• Shohei Ohtani vs Kansas City Royals
• Aaron Nola vs Colorado Rockies
• Zac Gallen vs San Diego Padres
• Jon Gray vs Oakland Athletics
• Tyler Mahle vs Washington Nationals

Best Odds for a Win

• Aaron Nola vs Colorado Rockies (-125)
• Shohei Ohtani vs Kansas City Royals (-115)
• Jon Gray vs Oakland Athletics (+115)
• Tyler Mahle vs Washington Nationals (+120)
• Freddy Peralta vs Boston Red Sox (+155)
• See More

Bullpens Most Likely to Blow Your Starters’ Win & Boost Your Stacks

• Kansas City Royals – 6.89 ERA (last 7 days)
• Oakland A’s – 6.78
• Philadelphia Phillies – 5.99
• San Francisco Giants – 5.40
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 5.20

Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels

As I stated above and on the Livestream, my lineup build will start with Ohtani as my primary pitcher. The Royals have lost their last six-straight games and nine of their last 10. They have the league’s lowest wOBA against righties (.262), they’re not hitting for any real power and they have a 25-percent strikeout rate against them. Yes, he will be super-chalky, but it’s very difficult to imagine him not being worth the spend-up. 

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

Overall, I really like Nola against the Rockies today. He’s had some early-season struggles, particularly against left-handed bats, but the skill-set remains dominant and he is steadily moving into mid-season form. The issue I have with the Phillies is strictly on the offensive front and that was evident in yesterday’s loss to Colorado. They have the fourth-highest wOBA against righties, but they can’t seem to advance runners enough to create runs. Nola should be able to handle the Rockies lineup, but can he get the run support he needs to comfortably pitch into the sixth or seventh inning and garb the win?

Tyler Mahle, Minnesota Twins

We’re going to have to keep an eye on the weather in this one as there is snow in the forecast apparently. If they play, though, then I’m in on Mahle tonight. He’s got a solid track record against the Nationals and while he’s had some struggles early on, we’re talking about a Nationals team that sports a dismal .264 wOBA with a league-worst 58 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus). He may not dominate with strikeouts, but he should minimize any damage and could steal the win.

Tyler Wells, Baltimore Orioles

The most unlikely hero is Wells and he is going to be my pay-down for the evening. Just like Kyle Bradish from a couple of days ago, I’m a believer in this Orioles team and expect Wells to get the run support he needs. He won’t be a dominant hurler, but he is capable of going at least five innings to be eligible for the win and can give you a handful of strikeouts as well. At his current price tag, we don’t need him to do much more than that to earn value.

Recommended DFS Hitters

Highest Expected Run Totals 

• 4.93 – New York Yankees vs Yusei Kikuchi
• 4.80 – Philadelphia Phillies vs Noah Davis
• 4.80 – Los Angeles Angels vs Taylor Clarke
• 4.75 – Texas Rangers vs JP Sears
• 4.73 – Baltimore Orioles vs Michael Lorenzen
• See More 

Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups

Adley Rutschman, C Baltimore Orioles

If I’m paying up at catcher, Rutschman is easily my favorite. Michael Lorenzen is not an intimidating pitcher and Rutschman should be able to get to him and maybe start back up another eight-game hitting streak like he is recently coming off. That .982 OPS and .416 wOBA against righties this season has me drooling.

Matt Olson, 1B Atlanta Braves

I really hope I don’t need to break down Olson too much for you. He’s listed here in the write-up just to remind you about how much I love him. He’s going to lead the league in home runs this year and while Hunter Brown has seemingly found a groove, Olson’s numbers against righties are frightening. Lock him in.

Gleyber Torres, 2B New York Yankees

After a white-hot start, Torres came back down to Earth, but has started to show some more signs of life again. The Yankees have a strong track-record against Yusei Kikuchi and Torres is sporting a .407 wOBA against southpaws this season. If you can afford the salary and maybe even squeeze in a Yankees stack, we’re in full support of it.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B Seattle Mariners

Funny how Grande and I both locked in on Suarez during the livestream. In fact, we are both bullish on the Mariners tonight against Steven Matz and will happily build a stack around Suarez. No shift has certainly helped him, but it’s all about how he’s punishing left-handed pitching right now. A .452 wOBA with a .988 OPS? Yes, please.

Willy Adames, SS Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee is on quite the tear right now, winning four-straight and six of their last seven. They’ve done some nice damage against right-handed pitching, posting a .343 wOBA with a 110 wRC+ and Adames is helping to lead the charge. He’s got three hits with a double, three RBI and a walk over his last three games and should have no trouble in helping to chase Nick Pivetta off the mound early.

Teoscar Hernandez, OF Seattle Mariners

If I’m stacking around Suarez, then I’m definitely using Teoscar who now has four multi-hit games over his last seven. He hasn’t gone yard since April 12, but again, this match-up with Matz is going to be too tough to pass up.

Joey Gallo, 1B/OF Minnesota Twins

While Trevor Williams is one of those guys who has some weird reverse-splits, I’m still going to look at Gallo for my GPP tournament lineups. It’s just pure, raw power and he’s rocking a .452 wOBA against righties. He’s actually hitting lefties really well right now too, so even if they Twins have to deal with the Nationals bullpen (pause for laughter), Gallo should be strong.

Player Pool

• DraftKings
• FanDuel

$ Tier	SP	RP	C	1B	2B	3B	SS	OF
High	Shohei Ohtani $11,400		Adley Rutschman $3,900	Matt Olson $4,400	Andrés Giménez $3,600	Alec Bohm $3,600	Jorge Mateo $4,100	Aaron Judge $4,200
	Aaron Nola $9,300			Pete Alonso $4,300	Gleyber Torres $3,200		Trea Turner $3,600	Mike Trout $4,000
				Paul Goldschmidt $3,700				Julio Rodríguez $4,000
Medium	Tyler Mahle $9,000		Jonah Heim $3,300	Anthony Rizzo $3,500	Bryson Stott $2,900	Eugenio Suárez $3,000	Willy Adames $3,500	Joey Gallo $3,500
				Rowdy Tellez $3,400		Josh Jung $3,000		Jarred Kelenic $3,400
								Kyle Schwarber $3,100
								Jorge Soler $3,100
Low		Tyler Wells $8,100	Cal Raleigh $2,900	Wilmer Flores $2,900	Edouard Julien $2,600	Ramón Urías $2,800	Edmundo Sosa $2,600	Jazz Chisholm $3,000
								Teoscar Hernández $2,900
								Byron Buxton $2,800

Stacks

Orioles	Ryan Mountcastle	Adley Rutschman	Cedric Mullins
DraftKings	4900	5500	5600
Fanduel	3600	3900	3900

Phillies	Trea Turner	Bryson Stott	Kyle Schwarber
DraftKings	6100	3900	6000
Fanduel	3600	2900	3100

Rangers	Adolis García	Josh Jung	Jonah Heim
DraftKings	5300	3900	3600
Fanduel	3400	3000	3300

Brewers	Rowdy Tellez	Willy Adames	Jesse Winker
DraftKings	4000	5200	3100
Fanduel	3400	3500	2900