MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Thursday Playbook
Published: Oct 03, 2024
We've got a one-game slate tonight in the MLB.
The Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, and San Diego Padres advanced to the Divisional Round in their respective conferences. However, the Mets and Brewers must play another game to decide their fate.
That game is tonight at 7:08 pm ET in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at American Family Field.
The starters have been announced. But since it's just one game, instead of looking at a classic lineup, you can consider playing in showdown captain mode, single stat RBI's mode, a snake showdown, or Pick6.
I'll provide the best MLB DFS picks and projections, and you can decide which mode best fits your desired lineup for October 3rd.
MLB September Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, October 3rd
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MLB DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator Today
I like the Mets to win tonight's game. They've got the veteran pitcher, who has limited line drives and fly balls more.
If I had to choose one pitcher, it'd be Quintana. Meanwhile, I'd be looking at Pete Alonso if you're looking for a 2X (FanDuel) and 1.5 X (DraftKings) player. At FanDuel, I'd consider slotting Alonso into 2X and Lindor at 1.5X.
While Alonso hasn't produced much recently, he's still hit a .232 ISO and wOBA of .357 against his last 70 righties. Alonso seems to believe he's putting good swings together, and his manager, Carlos Mendzona, acknowledged Alonso is one swing away from launching one.
Against Myers, this is a good spot for Alonso to hit one out of the yard. He's one of the most dangerous power sluggers in the MLB.
MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Jose Quintana (4.5, +110) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
- Tobias Myers (4.5, +115) vs. New York Mets
Best Odds For A Win
- No odds
MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Pitchers
The Mets match up better against Tobias Myers and the Brewers. Myers is a young pitcher with no playoff experience who has allowed lots of line drives and fly balls recently. It's why, even on the road, I'd instead back the Mets and their bats against the Brewers.
If you're looking for a 1.5x player to choose from out of the Mets-Brewers, I'd roll with Pete Alonso.
He's got the best chance to launch a home run. I know he's been weak over the last few weeks. But he told the media he's feeling good, and his manager, Carlos Mendoza, seems to think he's one swing away from hitting a homer.
Alonso would be my favorite play of the night for that 1.5X spot, thanks to some MLB DFS projections.
Tobias Myers, Milwaukee Brewers
Tobias Myers will take the hill for the Brewers tonight. The right-handed pitcher has struck out nearly 26% of batters over the last 30 days and has held his previous 101 batters to a .105 ISO and wOBA of .278.
Myers has also allowed just 32.4% of hard contact and has walked only 4% of batters over the last 30 days.
However, Myers has still allowed 31% of line drives and 28.2% of fly balls over the last 30 days. He's also induced just 35.2% of ground balls over the previous month. Additionally, Meyers hasn't added a high whiff or swinging strike rate against righties.
There are ways to attack Myers, so he wouldn't be one of my top MLB DFS picks at the pitcher spot.
Jose Quintana, New York Mets
I'd be more comfortable with Jose Quintana, even on the road. The veteran lefty has allowed a .035 ISO and wOBA of .202 with more than 60% of ground balls over the last month.
Additionally, he's allowed just 17.5% of fly balls and line drives and has struck out 25% of batters over the last 30 days. Quintana has also walked only 6.5% of batters in the previous month and has thrown deeper in games for the Mets over the last month.
MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Milwaukee Brewers (3.5, -125) vs. New York Mets
- New York Mets (4.5, -110) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters
Milwaukee Brewers: Jackson Chourio, OF, William Contreras, C, Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Joey Ortiz, 3B
The Milwaukee Brewers haven't had many consistent bats against lefties. It's also unlikely the Brewers have a ton of success against Quintana.
However, Jackson Chourio launched a home run against lefty Sean Manaea yesterday and added two home runs. He's the hottest hitter between the Brewers and Mets and deserves a look despite his struggles against lefties before the playoffs.
William Contreras has added a .217 ISO and wOBA of .426 against his last 29 lefties. He's been patient at the plate and typically gets good counts to hit with.
There's also Rhys Hoskins, who is a Mets' killer. He's added a .304 ISO and wOBA of .423 and has been the hottest hitter for the Brewers against lefties over the last 30 days.
You'll also want to consider Joey Ortiz. The young right-handed third baseman has earned a .222 ISO and wOBA of .323 and has struck out only 15.2% of the time against lefties over the last month.
Those would be my top MLB DFS picks for the Brewers' side of things.
New York Mets: Francisco Lindor, SS, Mark Vientos, 3B, Brandon Nimmo, OF, Pete Alonso, 1B, Francisco Alvarez, C
Tobias Myers might have a low ISO and wOBA. He's also seen an increased strikeout rate and has limited walks well.
But he's still allowed a high line drive rate and a high fly ball rate with little walks. If some of the Mets' power sluggers get good wood, they can launch a baseball against Myers.
Francisco Lindor has hit a .300 ISO and wOBA of .414 against his last 55 righties. Behind him, Mark Vientos has hit a .239 ISO and wOBA of .343 against his last 73 righties.
Brandon Nimmo has a .242 ISO, and Pete Alonso has earned a .232 ISO and a wOBA of .357 against righties over the last 30 days.
Finally, Francisco Alvarez also has contributed a .157 ISO against his last 58 righties and deserves a look. These would be the top MLB DFS picks for the Mets' side.
Player Pool
| $ Tier | C | 1B | 3B | SS | OF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High |  William Contreras  $9,000 |  Francisco Lindor $9,500 | Brandon Nimmo $8,000 | ||
| Medium | Pete Alonso $7,000 | Mark Vientos $7,500 | Jackson Chourio $7,500 | ||
| Rhys Hoskins $6,000 | |||||
| Low | Francisco Alvarez $5,000 | Joey Ortiz $5,500 | Sal Frelick $5,000 |
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.