MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Saturday Playbook
Published: Aug 17, 2024
Welcome to another day of MLB DFS here at Fantasy Alarm. We get a great 8-game main slate on DraftKings kicking off at 7:05 PM EST.
Luckily weather shouldn’t play much of a role on this slate with three games being played in domes and the only weather issues appear to be in the Red Sox vs Orioles game. Pitching is headlined by Chris Sale who takes on the Angels while the most expensive hitter is Shohei Ohtani.
Make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel so you never miss a show! Also, join the Fantasy Alarm Discord to get your DFS lineup questions answered by our MLB DFS team! Plus, as always, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the Daily MLB Projections, MLB DFS Rostership Projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting!
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook
MLB Weather: Today, 8/17
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
This game could see a delay or late start with rain in the area.
MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
There are a lot of interesting pitchers on this slate, but most of my builds are landing on Hunter Brown and Dylan Cease. Chris Sale was electric in his last start and has as much upside as anyone, but I prefer to save on pitching in favor of more expensive bats.
Offensively, the Padres are in Coors which makes them the most obvious stack on the board. Outside of that game, I have a ton of interest in the Astros against Chris Flexen and the Rangers against David Festa, followed by the Braves. Bobby Miller has been recalled by the Dodgers and considering how terrible he has been, the Cardinals make a ton of sense too.
Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
- Chris Sale (7.5 Ks -130) vs Los Angeles Angels
- Dylan Cease (7.5 Ks -115) vs Colorado Rockies
- Hunter Brown (6.5 Ks -125) vs Chicago White Sox
- Nathan Eovaldi (6.5 Ks +110) vs Minnesota Twins
Best Odds for a Win
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
Chris Sale is the most expensive pitcher on the board coming off an incredible 12-strikeout game against the Giants. He’s tallied 22 strikeouts over his last 11.2 innings and has tallied at least nine in three of his last four starts. Over the last 30 days, the Angels have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at just 15.9%, while ranking near the middle in most categories.
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Hunter Brown gets one of the best matchups on the board against the dreadful White Sox. Chicago ranks near the bottom of the league in almost every offensive category while holding a 25.2% strikeout rate over the last 30 days. Hunter Brown has had at least eight strikeouts in three of his last four starts and has huge win equity in this game. Over his last 10 starts, he has a 2.75 ERA and is averaging 20.4 DK points per game. Luis Robert is coming off a double home run game on Friday but outside of him, this lineup has been terrible.
Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
Dylan Cease gets the salary discount today as he heads into Coors Field to take on the Rockies. Colorado’s offense actually ranks 10th or better in most categories over the last 30 days, but it comes with the highest strikeout rate at 26.4%. Cease is striking out 31.9% of batters and had eight strikeouts in both starts against Colardo this season, including one in Coors. He’s had a problem with home runs at times this season but has only allowed one in his last six starts and should see success in this matchup.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
Freddy Peralta is not one of my favorite pitchers in this price range, but I do have some interest in tournaments from a rostership perspective. He’s walked at least two batters in five straight games and has allowed seven home runs over his last 22.1 innings. Obviously these numbers are not good, but Cleveland ranks near the bottom of the league in almost every offensive category against RHP over the last 30 days with a 20.9% strikeout rate. He’s very risky considering his recent outings, but if he can keep the ball in the park and hold down this team that struggles against righties, he has upside in tournaments.
Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- San Diego Padres (6.5)
- Houston Astros (5.5)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (5.2)
- Atlanta Braves (4.9)
Core MLB DFS Hitters
Note: Will Be Updated as Official Starting Lineups Are Released
Yordan Alvarez, OF, Houston Astros
With Chris Flexen on the hill, The Astros are one of my favorite stacks, headlined by Yordan Alvarez. Yordan has five home runs and 10 RBI over his last 10 games while holding a .259 ISO against RHP on the season. He actually has better numbers against lefties but 19 of his 25 home runs have come against righties. Flexen on the other hand is allowing a .549 SLG and 2.12 HR/9 to lefties.
Corey Seager, SS, Texas Rangers
Corey Seager is only batting .220 over his last 10 games, but he’s hit four home runs and tallied nine RBI. David Festa is starting for the Twins and he has a ton of talent in the strikeout department, averaging 10.73 K/9, but is allowing a ton of power to both splits. Against lefties, he is allowing a .515 SLG and 2.16 HR/9, and his 46% FB rate could see him getting into trouble.
Alec Burleson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Alec Burleson has slowed down but is still in a good spot here against Bobby Miller. He has only one home run and four RBI over his last 10 games but Miller has not put together a good outing since his first game of the season. It is a small sample size but he is allowing a .596 SLG and 2.84 HR/9 to lefties on the year. He’s also had terrible issues with control, averaging 5.59 BB/9 and an even worse 6.65 BB/9 during his stint in AAA. Burleson has 20 home runs and a .220 ISO against righties on the year and if Bobby hasn’t figured it out yet, it’s going to be a tough day for him.
Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves
Matt Olson has been so inconsistent this season I can understand not wanting to pay up for him, but he is in a great matchup here against Griffin Canning. Canning is allowing a .346 wOBA, .506 SLG, and 1.79 HR/9 to lefties on the season. Olson has hits in seven of his last eight games and three home runs over his last 10. Atlanta has one of the highest implied run totals on the slate and getting exposure through Olson could pay off. He has two home runs off Canning in his career.
Player Pool
Stacks
| Astros | Jeremy Peña | Yainer Diaz | Yordan Alvarez |
 DraftKings | 4300 | 4700 | 6000 |
 Fanduel | 3100 | 3100 | 4000 |
| Padres | Xander Bogaerts | Manny Machado | Jurickson Profar |
| DraftKings | 4800 | 5600 | 5400 |
| Fanduel | 3500 | 3700 | 3800 |
| Rangers | Nathaniel Lowe | Marcus Semien | Corey Seager |
| DraftKings | 3800 | 5000 | 5600 |
| Fanduel | 3000 | 3200 | 3700 |
| Braves | Austin Riley | Matt Olson | Michael Harris |
| DraftKings | 5700 | 5400 | 4200 |
| Fanduel | 3400 | 3400 | 3200 |
Player News
Yankees activated RHP Yerry De los Santos from the 15-day injured list.
De los Santos rejoins New York’s relief corps prior to Saturday afternoon’s showdown against the Phillies. The 27-year-old reliever compiled a strong 1.80 ERA across 20 innings (14 appearances) before hitting the injured list back on June 19 with right elbow discomfort. He’ll operate in middle relief and can be safely ignored for fantasy purposes.
Yankees optioned INF Jorbit Vivas to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
There simply isn’t a spot for Vivas within New York’s infield mix following the acquisition of veteran third baseman Ryan McMahon from the Rockies. The 24-year-old rookie has batted .161 (9-for-56) with one homer and five RBI in 29 games this season at the big-league level.
Yankees optioned RHP Scott Effross to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Effross was shipped back to the minors following Friday’s blowout loss to the Phillies where he was crushed for four runs in his lone inning of work. The 31-year-old righty should return at some point during the final two months of the season.
Spencer Jones was held out of Friday’s lineup for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre with back spasms.
There doesn’t appear to be any truth to social media speculation that Jones was pulled from Friday’s lineup because of a potential trade. The 24-year-old slugging prospect has crushed 13 home runs in 19 games at the Triple-A level, but has also struck out 31 percent of the time during that span. The 6-foot-7 power hitter’s omnipresent contact issues remain his largest obstacle to sustained fantasy relevance at the highest level, but his over-the-fence power ceiling is virtually unmatched in the prospect landscape.
Orioles C/1B prospect Samuel Basallo went 5-for-5 with a solo homer and two RBI on Friday for Triple-A Norfolk.
Basallo’s first career five-hit effort included three extra-base knocks, including a seventh-inning homer, as he reached the 20-homer threshold for the second time in his career. The 20-year-old power-hitting prodigy missed time earlier this week with an oblique injury, but didn’t show any lingering effects in one of the strongest performances of his career. Basallo would be capable of making an instant impact at the highest level, and offer immediate fantasy relevance, but the Orioles have shown zero sense to promote him to the majors before the 2025 season wraps up.
Kyle Tucker (knee) went 1-for-4 with an RBI on Friday in his return to the lineup.
Tucker returned to Chicago’s lineup for Friday’s series opener against the White Sox after sitting out Wednesday’s contest against Kansas City with a right knee contusion. It doesn’t sound like a serious concern moving forward.