MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Saturday Playbook

Welcome to another day of MLB DFS here at Fantasy Alarm. We get a great 8-game main slate on DraftKings kicking off at 7:05 PM EST.

Luckily weather shouldn’t play much of a role on this slate with three games being played in domes and the only weather issues appear to be in the Red Sox vs Orioles game. Pitching is headlined by Chris Sale who takes on the Angels while the most expensive hitter is Shohei Ohtani.

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MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook 

MLB Weather: Today, 8/17

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles

This game could see a delay or late start with rain in the area.

MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts

There are a lot of interesting pitchers on this slate, but most of my builds are landing on Hunter Brown and Dylan Cease. Chris Sale was electric in his last start and has as much upside as anyone, but I prefer to save on pitching in favor of more expensive bats.

Offensively, the Padres are in Coors which makes them the most obvious stack on the board. Outside of that game, I have a ton of interest in the Astros against Chris Flexen and the Rangers against David Festa, followed by the Braves. Bobby Miller has been recalled by the Dodgers and considering how terrible he has been, the Cardinals make a ton of sense too.

Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers

Top Options for Strikeouts

• Chris Sale (7.5 Ks -130) vs Los Angeles Angels
• Dylan Cease (7.5 Ks -115) vs Colorado Rockies
• Hunter Brown (6.5 Ks -125) vs Chicago White Sox
• Nathan Eovaldi (6.5 Ks +110) vs Minnesota Twins

Best Odds for a Win

• Chris Sale vs Los Angeles Angels
• Dylan Cease vs Colorado Rockies
• Hunter Brown vs Chicago White Sox

Core MLB DFS Pitchers

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

Chris Sale is the most expensive pitcher on the board coming off an incredible 12-strikeout game against the Giants. He’s tallied 22 strikeouts over his last 11.2 innings and has tallied at least nine in three of his last four starts. Over the last 30 days, the Angels have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at just 15.9%, while ranking near the middle in most categories.      

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Hunter Brown gets one of the best matchups on the board against the dreadful White Sox. Chicago ranks near the bottom of the league in almost every offensive category while holding a 25.2% strikeout rate over the last 30 days. Hunter Brown has had at least eight strikeouts in three of his last four starts and has huge win equity in this game. Over his last 10 starts, he has a 2.75 ERA and is averaging 20.4 DK points per game. Luis Robert is coming off a double home run game on Friday but outside of him, this lineup has been terrible.

Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres

Dylan Cease gets the salary discount today as he heads into Coors Field to take on the Rockies. Colorado’s offense actually ranks 10th or better in most categories over the last 30 days, but it comes with the highest strikeout rate at 26.4%. Cease is striking out 31.9% of batters and had eight strikeouts in both starts against Colardo this season, including one in Coors. He’s had a problem with home runs at times this season but has only allowed one in his last six starts and should see success in this matchup.

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

Freddy Peralta is not one of my favorite pitchers in this price range, but I do have some interest in tournaments from a rostership perspective. He’s walked at least two batters in five straight games and has allowed seven home runs over his last 22.1 innings. Obviously these numbers are not good, but Cleveland ranks near the bottom of the league in almost every offensive category against RHP over the last 30 days with a 20.9% strikeout rate. He’s very risky considering his recent outings, but if he can keep the ball in the park and hold down this team that struggles against righties, he has upside in tournaments. 

Recommended MLB DFS Hitters

Highest Expected Run Totals  

• San Diego Padres (6.5)
• Houston Astros (5.5)
• Los Angeles Dodgers (5.2) 
• Atlanta Braves (4.9)

Core MLB DFS Hitters

Note: Will Be Updated as Official Starting Lineups Are Released

Yordan Alvarez, OF, Houston Astros

With Chris Flexen on the hill, The Astros are one of my favorite stacks, headlined by Yordan Alvarez. Yordan has five home runs and 10 RBI over his last 10 games while holding a .259 ISO against RHP on the season. He actually has better numbers against lefties but 19 of his 25 home runs have come against righties. Flexen on the other hand is allowing a .549 SLG and 2.12 HR/9 to lefties.

Corey Seager, SS, Texas Rangers

Corey Seager is only batting .220 over his last 10 games, but he’s hit four home runs and tallied nine RBI. David Festa is starting for the Twins and he has a ton of talent in the strikeout department, averaging 10.73 K/9, but is allowing a ton of power to both splits. Against lefties, he is allowing a .515 SLG and 2.16 HR/9, and his 46% FB rate could see him getting into trouble.

Alec Burleson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

Alec Burleson has slowed down but is still in a good spot here against Bobby Miller. He has only one home run and four RBI over his last 10 games but Miller has not put together a good outing since his first game of the season. It is a small sample size but he is allowing a .596 SLG and 2.84 HR/9 to lefties on the year. He’s also had terrible issues with control, averaging 5.59 BB/9 and an even worse 6.65 BB/9 during his stint in AAA. Burleson has 20 home runs and a .220 ISO against righties on the year and if Bobby hasn’t figured it out yet, it’s going to be a tough day for him.

Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves

Matt Olson has been so inconsistent this season I can understand not wanting to pay up for him, but he is in a great matchup here against Griffin Canning. Canning is allowing a .346 wOBA, .506 SLG, and 1.79 HR/9 to lefties on the season. Olson has hits in seven of his last eight games and three home runs over his last 10. Atlanta has one of the highest implied run totals on the slate and getting exposure through Olson could pay off. He has two home runs off Canning in his career.

Player Pool

• DraftKings
• FanDuel

$ Tier	SP	C	1B	2B	3B	SS	OF
High	Chris Sale $11,000	William Contreras $3,300	Shohei Ohtani $4,700	Jose Altuve $3,700	José Ramírez $4,100	Corey Seager $3,700	Yordan Alvarez $4,000
	Dylan Cease $10,700	Kyle Higashioka $3,400	Matt Olson $3,400	Xander Bogaerts $3,500	Austin Riley $3,400	Gunnar Henderson $4,400	Marcell Ozuna $3,700
			Freddie Freeman $3,600		Manny Machado $3,700	Mookie Betts $4,100	Anthony Santander $3,700
							Jurickson Profar $3,800
							Teoscar Hernández $3,500
Medium	Hunter Brown $9,900	Yainer Diaz $3,100	Paul Goldschmidt $3,100	Marcus Semien $3,200	Josh Smith $3,000	Ha-Seong Kim $3,300	Wyatt Langford $3,000
	Tanner Bibee $8,800	Willson Contreras $3,200	Alec Burleson $3,000	Brice Turang $3,000	Josh Jung $3,100	Jeremy Peña $3,100	Luis Robert $3,100
							Jackson Chourio $3,100
							Michael Harris $3,200
							Adolis García $3,100
Low	Freddy Peralta $8,600	Jonah Heim $2,700	Nathaniel Lowe $3,000	Gavin Lux $2,700	Joey Ortiz $2,800	Ceddanne Rafaela $3,000	Jarred Kelenic $2,600
		Connor Wong $2,800	Ryan O'Hearn $2,800	Jackson Holliday $2,900		Nick Sogard $2,700	Jake Cave $2,900
							Brendan Donovan $2,800
							Cedric Mullins $2,900

Stacks

Astros	Jeremy Peña	Yainer Diaz	Yordan Alvarez
DraftKings	4300	4700	6000
Fanduel	3100	3100	4000

Padres	Xander Bogaerts	Manny Machado	Jurickson Profar
DraftKings	4800	5600	5400
Fanduel	3500	3700	3800

Rangers	Nathaniel Lowe	Marcus Semien	Corey Seager
DraftKings	3800	5000	5600
Fanduel	3000	3200	3700

Braves	Austin Riley	Matt Olson	Michael Harris
DraftKings	5700	5400	4200
Fanduel	3400	3400	3200