MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Saturday Playbook
Published: Aug 17, 2024
Welcome to another day of MLB DFS here at Fantasy Alarm. We get a great 8-game main slate on DraftKings kicking off at 7:05 PM EST.
Luckily weather shouldn’t play much of a role on this slate with three games being played in domes and the only weather issues appear to be in the Red Sox vs Orioles game. Pitching is headlined by Chris Sale who takes on the Angels while the most expensive hitter is Shohei Ohtani.
Make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel so you never miss a show! Also, join the Fantasy Alarm Discord to get your DFS lineup questions answered by our MLB DFS team! Plus, as always, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the Daily MLB Projections, MLB DFS Rostership Projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting!
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook
MLB Weather: Today, 8/17
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
This game could see a delay or late start with rain in the area.
MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
There are a lot of interesting pitchers on this slate, but most of my builds are landing on Hunter Brown and Dylan Cease. Chris Sale was electric in his last start and has as much upside as anyone, but I prefer to save on pitching in favor of more expensive bats.
Offensively, the Padres are in Coors which makes them the most obvious stack on the board. Outside of that game, I have a ton of interest in the Astros against Chris Flexen and the Rangers against David Festa, followed by the Braves. Bobby Miller has been recalled by the Dodgers and considering how terrible he has been, the Cardinals make a ton of sense too.
Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
- Chris Sale (7.5 Ks -130) vs Los Angeles Angels
- Dylan Cease (7.5 Ks -115) vs Colorado Rockies
- Hunter Brown (6.5 Ks -125) vs Chicago White Sox
- Nathan Eovaldi (6.5 Ks +110) vs Minnesota Twins
Best Odds for a Win
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
Chris Sale is the most expensive pitcher on the board coming off an incredible 12-strikeout game against the Giants. He’s tallied 22 strikeouts over his last 11.2 innings and has tallied at least nine in three of his last four starts. Over the last 30 days, the Angels have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at just 15.9%, while ranking near the middle in most categories.
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Hunter Brown gets one of the best matchups on the board against the dreadful White Sox. Chicago ranks near the bottom of the league in almost every offensive category while holding a 25.2% strikeout rate over the last 30 days. Hunter Brown has had at least eight strikeouts in three of his last four starts and has huge win equity in this game. Over his last 10 starts, he has a 2.75 ERA and is averaging 20.4 DK points per game. Luis Robert is coming off a double home run game on Friday but outside of him, this lineup has been terrible.
Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
Dylan Cease gets the salary discount today as he heads into Coors Field to take on the Rockies. Colorado’s offense actually ranks 10th or better in most categories over the last 30 days, but it comes with the highest strikeout rate at 26.4%. Cease is striking out 31.9% of batters and had eight strikeouts in both starts against Colardo this season, including one in Coors. He’s had a problem with home runs at times this season but has only allowed one in his last six starts and should see success in this matchup.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
Freddy Peralta is not one of my favorite pitchers in this price range, but I do have some interest in tournaments from a rostership perspective. He’s walked at least two batters in five straight games and has allowed seven home runs over his last 22.1 innings. Obviously these numbers are not good, but Cleveland ranks near the bottom of the league in almost every offensive category against RHP over the last 30 days with a 20.9% strikeout rate. He’s very risky considering his recent outings, but if he can keep the ball in the park and hold down this team that struggles against righties, he has upside in tournaments.
Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- San Diego Padres (6.5)
- Houston Astros (5.5)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (5.2)
- Atlanta Braves (4.9)
Core MLB DFS Hitters
Note: Will Be Updated as Official Starting Lineups Are Released
Yordan Alvarez, OF, Houston Astros
With Chris Flexen on the hill, The Astros are one of my favorite stacks, headlined by Yordan Alvarez. Yordan has five home runs and 10 RBI over his last 10 games while holding a .259 ISO against RHP on the season. He actually has better numbers against lefties but 19 of his 25 home runs have come against righties. Flexen on the other hand is allowing a .549 SLG and 2.12 HR/9 to lefties.
Corey Seager, SS, Texas Rangers
Corey Seager is only batting .220 over his last 10 games, but he’s hit four home runs and tallied nine RBI. David Festa is starting for the Twins and he has a ton of talent in the strikeout department, averaging 10.73 K/9, but is allowing a ton of power to both splits. Against lefties, he is allowing a .515 SLG and 2.16 HR/9, and his 46% FB rate could see him getting into trouble.
Alec Burleson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Alec Burleson has slowed down but is still in a good spot here against Bobby Miller. He has only one home run and four RBI over his last 10 games but Miller has not put together a good outing since his first game of the season. It is a small sample size but he is allowing a .596 SLG and 2.84 HR/9 to lefties on the year. He’s also had terrible issues with control, averaging 5.59 BB/9 and an even worse 6.65 BB/9 during his stint in AAA. Burleson has 20 home runs and a .220 ISO against righties on the year and if Bobby hasn’t figured it out yet, it’s going to be a tough day for him.
Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves
Matt Olson has been so inconsistent this season I can understand not wanting to pay up for him, but he is in a great matchup here against Griffin Canning. Canning is allowing a .346 wOBA, .506 SLG, and 1.79 HR/9 to lefties on the season. Olson has hits in seven of his last eight games and three home runs over his last 10. Atlanta has one of the highest implied run totals on the slate and getting exposure through Olson could pay off. He has two home runs off Canning in his career.
Player Pool
Stacks
| Astros | Jeremy Peña | Yainer Diaz | Yordan Alvarez |
 DraftKings | 4300 | 4700 | 6000 |
 Fanduel | 3100 | 3100 | 4000 |
| Padres | Xander Bogaerts | Manny Machado | Jurickson Profar |
| DraftKings | 4800 | 5600 | 5400 |
| Fanduel | 3500 | 3700 | 3800 |
| Rangers | Nathaniel Lowe | Marcus Semien | Corey Seager |
| DraftKings | 3800 | 5000 | 5600 |
| Fanduel | 3000 | 3200 | 3700 |
| Braves | Austin Riley | Matt Olson | Michael Harris |
| DraftKings | 5700 | 5400 | 4200 |
| Fanduel | 3400 | 3400 | 3200 |
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.