MLB DFS Picks & Playbook For Today’s Games: Sunday, April 21
Published: Apr 21, 2024
With no potential rainouts on today's MLB slate, today's already off to a fantastic start.
Let's keep the good vibes coming. There are so many enticing matchups that you'll want to consider today.
Check out today's MLB playbook below before you get your lineups in on DraftKings and FanDuel as we present our MLB DFS picks for today, April 21st.
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, April 21
MLB Weather Today, 4/21
- It's a miracle! There are no games with any rain issues!
MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
I'm rarely someone who will risk it for lower-tier pitching, but I've found two lower-cost starters I'd be okay with starting if that means adding elite hitting to your lineup.
That message is more geared towards the DraftKings people.
On DraftKings, play one higher-tier and one lower-tier pitcher. Meanwhile, on FanDuel, you'll likely still want to go with one of the higher-tier players on the list.
Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Luis Gil (6.5, +105) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Tanner Bibee (6.5 +105) vs. Cleveland Guardians
- Aaron Nola (6.5 +110) vs. Chicago White Sox
- Edward Cabrera (6.5 +115) vs. Chicago Cubs
Best Odds For A Win
- Aaron Nola (-130) vs. vs. Chicago White Sox
- Christian Javier (+130) vs. Washington Nationals
- Tanner Bibee (+140) vs. Oakland Athletics
- Edward Cabrera (+180) vs. Chicago Cubs
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola has a 3.47 ERA in four starts this season, with 19 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. While his strikeout rate is lower than last year, he's getting more grounders and has been elite against right-handed batters to begin the year.
That said, he's facing a White Sox projected lineup that has hit a .126 ISO and wOBA of .275 with just 6.4% of walks since last season. Not a single bat in the White Sox lineup has hit above a .164 ISO against righties or a wOBA of better than .345.
That's ultimately why Nola has heavy odds for a win at -130. You'd also have to imagine his strikeout rate will eventually increase with a larger sample size this season.
Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals
Against his first 39 batters faced, Sonny Gray has earned 28.2% of strikeouts while adding no walks.
He's also held opponents to a .026 ISO and woBA of .215 while inducing more than 46% of ground balls. Beyond that, Gray has limited teams to 14.3% line drives and has only allowed 32.1% of hard contact, which is really good.
He'll face a projected Brewers lineup that has struck out 24.8% of the time against righties since last season. The lineup has also walked under 9% of the time and has hit a wOBA of just .314.
Gray was ultimately this good last year. Against nearly 800 batters, he limited teams to a .278 wOBA. So, although we've only got a small sample from Gray this year, I'm confident these types of performances will come regularly for Gray.
Martin Perez, Pittsburgh Pirates
Martin Perez won't rack up strikeouts. But he could get you a ton of outs and last pretty deep in today's game.
Perez has only struck out 15.5% of batters this season. But he's also held opponents to a .084 ISO and wOBA of .291 with 45.6% of grounders and just 19% of fly balls allowed. He's got terrific stats to begin the year and has the potential to be in line for a win after his day is done today.
I say this because he's facing a Red Sox projected lineup that has hit a .092 ISO and wOBA of .276 against lefties since last season. This lineup would be without Rafael Devers and Triston Casas, who are both injured and left-handed hitters.
The Red Sox's projected lineup has struck out 29.1% of the time against lefties and has walked just 6.8% of the time. Perez has been dealing, and the Red Sox have no consistency against lefties. He's a fun, low-cost option if you want to go that route.
Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers
Another low-cost option would be Casey Mize. Mize is a right-handed pitcher who has held his first 65 batters to a .082 ISO and wOBA of .279 with 53.1% of ground balls.
Although Mize hasn't struck out a high rate of batters to begin the year, he's facing a Twins projected lineup that has struck out 25.6% of the time against righties since last season.
Mize is coming off his first quality start of the season after going six innings against a difficult Texas lineup. He allowed five hits and walked no one while adding six strikeouts. That's probably around the stat line you'll see out of Mize today.
Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Houston Astros (5.5, +110) vs. Washington Nationals
- Philadelphia Phillies (4.5, -125) vs. Chicago White Sox
- Cincinnati Reds (4.5, -115) vs. Los Angeles Angels
- Pittsburgh Pirates (4.5, +100) vs. Boston Red Sox
- Kansas City Royals (4.5, +100) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Core MLB DFS Hitters
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B, Spencer Steer, OF, Cincinnati Reds
The Angels will start Jose Soriano for another game. The former righty reliever has already thrown against 37 righties this season.
Those 37 righties have hit a .226 ISO and wOBA of .314.
Last season, he faced 106 righties as a righty and allowed a .198 ISO and wOBA of .376.
He's way worse against right-handed hitting. Meanwhile, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer will be two of the few righties in the lineup against Soriano.
Encarnacion-Strand has hit a .232 ISO and wOBA of .345 against righties since last season, while Spencer Steer has slugged a .183 ISO and woBA of .356. If the Reds plan on scoring today, they'll have to work walks with lefties and slug with the righties.
Bobby Witt, SS, Kansas City Royals
Bobby Witt will take on another lefty today. This time, it's Cole Irvin of the Orioles, who has already allowed a .174 ISO and wOBA of .384 to his first 50 righties this season.
Irvin has also allowed 40.5% of fly balls and has induced only 40.5% of ground balls against righties to begin the season.
This has been a common theme for Irvin. Last year, Irvin allowed a .188 ISO and wOBA of .324 to 267 righties.
On the other hand, Bobby Witt has smacked a .235 ISO and wOBA of .367 against lefties since last season. He's also smashed 33.6% of fly balls against lefties and has hit a 53.8% hard contact rate against lefties since last season.
Riley Greene, OF, Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers will take on Louie Varland of the Twins. He's a right-handed pitcher who has given up a .277 ISO and wOBA of .454 to his first 72 batters this season.
Even Varland's strikeout rate has dipped since last season.
That said, since last year, Riley Greene has hit a .189 ISO and wOBA of .364 against righties. He's also walked 10.8% of the time and has smashed 29.6% of line drives against righties in his previous 389 plate appearances.
This is a fun, sneaky matchup for Greene.
Jazz Chisholm, OF, Miami Marlins
It's Kyle Hendricks day!
You know what that means!
To begin the season, Hendricks has been getting torched. The veteran righty has allowed a .350 ISO and wOBA of .503 to his first 88 batters. Hendricks has also struck out just 12.5% of batters and has averaged under 80 pitches per start.
That said, he's been slightly worse against lefties. Lefties have knocked a .463 ISO and wOBA of .530 in 46 plate appearances.
Today, he'll have to face Jazz Chisholm, a lefty, who has hit a .237 ISO and wOBA of .368 against right-handed pitching since last season.
Chisholm has been super consistent against righties since last year. While the Marlins haven't done much offensively this year, Luis Arraez should get on base in this game specifically. He's struck out just 3.7% of the time against righties since last season. Meanwhile, Bryan De La Cruz, who is projected to bat second, has had somewhat decent numbers against righties since last season.
There could be legitimate RBI chances for Chisholm today.
Player Pool
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