Welcome to another day of MLB DFS here at Fantasy Alarm. We get a solid 7-game main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel kicking off at 1:05 PM EST.

 

 

This looks like a pretty fun slate with some solid options for pitching at each price range. There are some weather concerns in a few games so keep an eye on the weather and check for updates heading into roster lock.

With that being said, let’s dive into the slate and see what we can find for top spends and value plays. 

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MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook 

MLB Weather: Today, 5/4

Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals

This game will likely have rain for the entire game, with a chance it gets postponed.

Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Consistent light rain is expected during the game.

Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics

There is heavy rain in the forecast but it should clear out by game time. There’s a chance that we see a late start and possibly a delay during the game.

MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts

This slate offers a variety of solid options for pitchers. The top-priced option is Jared Jones, who is in a fantastic matchup with the Rockies, but Erick Fedde might just be my favorite on the board. Pablo Lopez is in an interesting spot against the Boston Red Sox, where he has big strikeout potential, but Boston ranks seventh in wOBA against right-handed pitching so I am mostly getting to him in multi-entry contests.

When it comes to stacking, I have a lot of interest in both the Cubs and Twins. Most of my builds tend to feature two-man stacks, rather than going for four-man stacks, but there are plenty of possibilities.

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers

Top Options for Strikeouts

Best Odds for a Win

 

 

Core MLB DFS Pitchers

Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

Few matchups are as appealing for a pitcher as being home against the Rockies. Granted, I would likely still use Jared Jones even if this game were in Coors, but the fact it’s at home gives him immediate upside. He’s been terrific this year, with a 3.18 ERA and at least seven strikeouts in five of his six starts, and let’s face it, the Rockies are awful.

The Rockies sit around the middle of the league in wOBA against right-handed pitching at .301, but the value comes from their 27.7% strikeout rate, good for third worst in baseball. Attacking Colorado has been a viable strategy all season and this matchup will be no different.

Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals

Lance Lynn is an interesting play here against the White Sox. He has been decent this season, holding a 2.64 ERA, but he did lead the league in home runs allowed last season so that is a risk we will have to consider. We know Lynn has strikeout potential in any given game, with two seven-strikeout games on the year, but he has not been consistently striking batters out, most notably in his seven-inning outing against the A’s where he somehow managed only a single strikeout.

We used every pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays last weekend against Chicago and it backfired seemingly every time, but I am still willing to consider Lynn while the White Sox rank in the bottom five in nearly every offensive category. If he can keep the ball in the park and avoid Eloy Jimenez, Lynn should be able to put together a solid start against the White Sox.

Erick Fedde, Chicago White Sox

Even more appealing than Lance Lynn may be the pitcher on the other side of the matchup, Erick Fedde. Fedde has been solid all year and may be the only bright spot for the White Sox, but he’s been even better in his last two starts. He’s only allowed three runs over his last 14 innings while collecting an impressive 20 strikeouts. He doesn’t carry a ton of win equity playing for Chicago, but he is 2-0 on the year.

The Cardinals rank 26th in wOBA with a .291 while holding the seventh-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching at 24.6%. Both sides of this matchup have bad offensive numbers, but the Cardinals at least have some players you would expect to be scary like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. With Fedde’s recent strikeout numbers and the Cardinals’ propensity to strikeout, he is easily my favorite value arm on the slate.

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Hitters

Highest Expected Run Totals  

Core MLB DFS Hitters

Note: Will Be Updated as Official Starting Lineups Are Released

Christopher Morel, 3B, Chicago Cubs

Christopher Morel is not a player I often target, but when he’s hot, you have to consider him. He has hits in four of his last five games, including three home runs, two of which came in his last two games. In 2023, Morel hit 19 of his 26 home runs off right-handed pitchers while holding a .240 ISO on the season. 

Tobias Myers has only made two starts for the Brewers, but he has already given up three home runs over his 10 innings of work, all of which came to right-handed hitters. It’s a very small sample size, but it makes Morel an interesting play at the position.

Riley Greene, OF, Detroit Tigers

Riley Greene has been heating up lately, with hits in six straight games, including two multi-hit games and two home runs. The Tigers are not an offense I tend to stack but Riley Greene has four home runs and seven RBI over his last 10 games in a solid matchup against Clarke Schmidt.

Schmidt has been solid but has given up a home run in three straight starts. During his 2023 campaign, he allowed a .376 wOBA and .500 SLG to left-handed hitters which may bode well for Riley Greene who holds a .259 ISO against righties this season.

Willi Castro, OF/SS, Minnesota Twins

Willi Castro has been awesome lately, with three multi-hit games over his last five and four extra-base hits. The Twins have moved him all over the lineup and he hit from the eighth spot in Friday’s game. He’s only stolen three bases on the year, but his speed always provides upside, as he stole 33 last season.  

The Red Sox are pitching from their bullpen which won’t really give us a bias on Castro, but he’s a very cheap option with multiple-position eligibility and has scored double-digit DK points in six of his last seven games.

Willy Adames, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

Willy Adames is having a great season thus far, with six home runs and 22 RBI on the year. He has hits in four of his last five games, including three home runs and two steals. Against right-handed pitching, Adames has a .400 wOBA and .212 ISO, giving him a lot of upside for his price tag. Jameson Taillon has been solid in his three starts, but he has given up two home runs and Adames has power.

 

Player Pool

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Stacks

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