If you’re looking for some real Fourth of July fireworks, let's check in with the top MLB Best Bets and Props for today. The Thursday MLB schedule is packed with a full 15 games spread out throughout the day. 

 

 

 

We have an early start in our nation’s capital as Jake Irvin and the Washington Nationals host Jose Quintana and the New York Mets to start things off at 11:05 AM ET. While the overall action is abundant, we’ve been digging into the latest Vegas lines and odds and despite the run we’ve been on lately, we may not be loading up for the holiday. Things look tight and, you know, daytime baseball and all.

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 7/4

The momentum has been outstanding lately and Wednesday’s MLB predictions showed us just that. We nailed a variety of pitching props from Yusei Kikuchi and Ronel Blanco to David Fest and the return of Gavin Williams.

We’ll probably attack today’s slate in similar fashion as there are a number of props I’m already looking at while trying to avoid investing too much in a day that messes with everyone’s normal routine.

  • Wednesday’s Record: 9-3
  • Season Record: 299-255-6
  • Bankroll: +11.51 units

 

 

 

Padres vs. Rangers Prediction: Thursday, July 4

We’ll get our MLB best bets rolling with an interesting pitching matchup between Michael King and Max Scherzer. If you watched the most recent MLB DFS Show, you’ve heard about the Scherzer quality-start bet Jon Impemba and I have. 

I’m not so sure Scherzer reaches that quality start, but I also don’t think he gets blown up. In fact, my real concern is how far into the game he goes against a Padres team that, even without Fernando Tatis in the lineup, has feasted on right-handed pitching all year (.332 wOBA). But can he help keep the score down through the first five innings? I’m banking on it. 

On the other side, while Michael King has had some inconsistent moments this season, he’s coming off a great start against a lefty-heavy Boston lineup and whole the Rangers numbers look a little padded coming off 18 runs in two games against the Orioles and Padres, we’ve got some serious slumps going, most notably, Marcus Semien. Corey Seager has also been banged up lately and is still working himself back. Don’t care who wins – just keep the score down early. 

  • Expert Padres vs. Rangers Picks:

 

 

 

Rays vs. Royals Prediction: Thursday, July 4

While Royals lefty Alec Marsh is coming off a quality start against the Guardians, we watched him give up 10 earned runs over the two starts prior and has gone through stretches where he’s coughed up some serious runs. The Rays have been middle-of-the-pack against southpaws this season and same with their overall performance over their last five games, but can they eke out an early lead against Marsh? 

The Vegas lines say yes, and I have to agree with them here. I also think Zach Eflin can turn out a decent outing through at least the first five innings. The Royals aren’t a big strikeout team, and they like to put bat-to-ball. That’s why I’m actually eyeballing this Eflin walk prop at such tasty plus-money odds. 

He’s walked one batter in each of his last three starts so there is risk, but the payoff looks great, especially when you see that prior to those three starts, he didn’t walk a single batter in six straight outings, completing a run of no walks in nine of 10 games. This is a great opportunity for our MLB picks to hit a strong plus-money bet on a day when the lines are tightening up with every minute that passes.

 

 

 

Best MLB Prop Bets For Today: Pitchers