MLB Best Bets Today, 7/12: Expert Picks, Predictions & Props On Friday
Time to check in with the top MLB Best Bets and Props for today and Fantasy Alarm has everything you need. This is the final weekend of action before the MLB All-Star break and Friday is loaded with a 15-game slate that features plenty of betting opportunities.
We get pitching aces like Tarik Skubal, Cole Ragans, Freddy Peralta and Hunter Brown on the mound as well as Gerritt Cole, though we need to see which version of Cole will tangle with the Baltimore Orioles. And we should also see some strong hitting with home games for the Cincinnati Reds against the Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies who get a real soft matchup against the Oakland Athletics.
We’ll check in with the latest Vegas lines and odds to find the best value bets available, so let’s get to it.
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 7/12
Before we dive into Friday’s slate, it’s always nice to check in with where we are at betting wise. The Thursday MLB predictions were strong, once again, as we continue to nail a lot of these pitching props.
It was a good day for the “unders” as we’ve found some really nice pockets to bet on for guys like Jordan Hicks, Nestor Cortes and Roddery Munoz and expose their current struggles. The bankroll is growing and we’re looking to finish this first half strong, so it’s time to dive in!
- Yesterday’s Record: 7-3
- Season Record: 330-276-6
- Bankroll: +15.93 units
Twins vs. Giants Prediction: Friday, July 12
The Twins remain one of the hottest-hitting teams in MLB with a .381 wOBA and .205 ISO over the past week and they absolutely crush lefties with a .345 wOBA and .181 ISO over the course of the season. They also have a sub-20-percent strikeout rate against southpaws too. Giants starter Kyle Harrison is still working his way back from an extended injury absence over June and only lasted 3.1 innings in his first start back last week.
The Guardians put up four runs on him that day as he threw 72 pitches, gave up four hits, one home run and walked four. The Twins can probably do that and more. On the other side of these MLB best bets, the Giants are ice cold right now, posting a soft .287 wOBA with a 27.1-percent strikeout rate.
They aren’t hitting for a world of power and both the ballpark dimensions and cool, damp air in the Bay Area will help Ryan, who is more of a fly-ball pitcher. He should be able to limit the hits, punch out more than just a few guys (he’s topped his K prop in each of his last two starts) and help the Twins hold a lead through the first half of this game.
- Expert Twins vs. Giants Picks:
- Minnesota First 5 Innings Money Line (-130 on Bet365)
- Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120 on BetMGM)
Athletics vs. Phillies Prediction: Friday, July 12
The Phillies just got done sweeping the Dodgers, they have the most players headed to the All-Star game and they are looking to finish this first half with some fireworks at home. Enter Oakland, one of our favorite punching bags. The A’s have lefty Hogan Harris taking the mound and while he may have some big dad energy just coming off the paternity list, this Phillies team is absolutely loaded and crushes left-handed pitching.
We’re talking about four players, including Trea Turner, posting a wOBA over .400, while the team as a whole has a .337 wOBA against southpaws. And best of all, we don’t even care about Ranger Suarez struggling on the mound. Not that I think Oakland is going to beat him up, but we’re just going to stay focused on the Philadelphia offense with our MLB picks today.
- Expert Athletics vs. Phillies Picks:
- Philadelphia F5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-135 on DraftKings)
- Trea Turner Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-115 on BetMGM)
Pirates vs. White Sox Prediction: Friday, July 12
While the Pirates have been hitting the ball well in recent games, we’re going to focus on their 21st-ranked .302 wOBA against southpaws which comes with a 24.7-percent strikeout rate. Garrett Crochet knows he is on the trade block right now and as he gets ready to go to his first All-Star game, you know he wants to put on a show for any prospective teammates. While I do worry about his workload in the second half, he’s got one more start here to really shine bright.
While I don’t like backing the White Sox offense and they have struggles against lefties, the Pirates are running out Marco Gonzales for his first start since returning from a forearm injury. I’m not sure how deep he goes into this game, but Gonzales is a guy who pitches to contact and is likely to have some command issues his first time out. Our MLB predictions today will back the Pale Hose here, at least early on.
- Expert Pirates vs. White Sox Picks:
- Chicago First 5 Innings -0.5 Run Line (-125 on Bet365)
- Garrett Crochet Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125 on Bet365)
Best MLB Prop Bets Today, 7/12: Pitchers
- Bryan Woo Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Ryne Nelson Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Randy Vasquez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
- Carlos Carrasco Over 1.5 Walks (-110 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.