Welcome back to another Sunday of MLB picks as we take a closer look at all of today’s games. Let’s dive into MLB Best Bets and Props as you enjoy the weekend action!

Our top MLB predictions today feature the Orioles vs. Guardians and Red Sox vs. Rangers matchups. Plus, we wrap up our Sunday baseball betting card with some top MLB props. Enjoy the afternoon and night baseball as we cash our plays! 

 

 


 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 8/4

As always, be sure to shop around for the best Vegas Odds And Lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. 

Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and props for Sunday, August 4th.

 

 


 

Orioles vs. Guardians Prediction Today, August 4th

This weekend’s series between the Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians has been an entertaining one with two of the American League’s top teams facing off. Let’s break down how to bet the series finale on Sunday afternoon. 

Corbin Burnes starts for Baltimore as he looks to continue a Cy Young-caliber season. Burnes owns a 2.47 ERA and 1.04 WHIP this season. If you take one look at his Statcast page, it’s easy to see how dominant he’s been. Here are some highlights: 33.3% chase rate (90th percentile), 30.8% hard-hit rate (94th), 6.0% walk rate (79th), 28 pitching run value (100th). 

Burnes has posted a quality start in 16 of his last 17 outings and boasts a 2.34 ERA over his past 11 starts. The Orioles’ right-handed ace is as consistent and trustworthy as it gets. He’ll take on a Guardians offense that has some poor numbers against righties since the All-Star break (.272 wOBA, 76 wRC+). Over the past month, Cleveland has a .282 wOBA (29th in MLB), 83 wRC+ (29th), .228 BA (26th), and .650 OPS (29th) vs. right-handed pitching. 

While Burnes does his thing on the mound, bank on the Baltimore hitters to provide run support in their own matchup. Guardians starter Gavin Williams has been up and down since returning from injury a month ago. He has a 3.72 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through 6 starts. Now the right-hander has to face a dangerous Orioles offense that’s been very tough on righties lately. They have a .367 wOBA, 141 wRC+, .276 BA, and .850 OPS against right-handers since the All-Star break. 

Take the Orioles on the moneyline for both the first five innings and full game. You can look at the runline too, since they’re on the road and could stretch a lead out late. 

Expert Orioles vs. Guardians Picks

  • Orioles Moneyline (-140 BetMGM)
  • 1st 5 Innings Orioles ML (-140 BetMGM)

 

 


 

Red Sox vs. Rangers Prediction Today, August 4th

When the season began, the defending champion Texas Rangers were viewed as a clear tier above the Boston Red Sox. Well, the Rangers have succumbed to the World Series hangover while the Red Sox are right in the thick of the AL Wild Card race. The teams face off on Sunday afternoon in their series finale and there’s an angle to dive into. 

Nick Pivetta starts for Boston and there are a few reasons to back him today. First off, the right-hander is a positive regression candidate with a 3.30 xFIP and 3.53 xERA compared to a much higher 4.47 ERA. Pivetta’s 30.0% strikeout rate (90th MLB percentile), 5.9% walk rate (81st), and .227 xBA (72nd) are all encouraging advanced metrics. 

Pivetta recently had a blowup outing in Colorado (understandable), but had a 2.39 ERA and a 38:6 K:BB ratio across his four other July starts. He’s been much more effective than he was earlier in the season. The Red Sox starter will take on a Rangers offense that has poor numbers vs. right-handers lately. Since the All-Star break, Texas has a .254 wOBA, 59 wRC+, and .195 BA against righties. Pivetta, meanwhile, has better road numbers (3.75 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) than at home (5.27 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). 

On the other side, we can fade Texas starter Nathan Eovaldi in his own matchup against the Boston hitters. Eovaldi has a solid 3.38 ERA but his 3.92 xERA and 3.87 FIP are both a bit higher. After a good start to the season, Eovaldi has been shakier lately. He has a 4.09 ERA since mid-June (9 starts) and a 3.94 ERA over his past five outings. 

Besides Eovaldi’s current form, he’ll have to face a Red Sox offense that’s been hitting righties hard recently. Since the break, Boston has a .370 wOBA, 136 wRC+, .215 ISO, and .303 BA vs. right-handed pitching. This is a much tougher lineup than it was earlier in the year. 

Take the Red Sox on the moneyline for the full game and first five innings. There’s clear value to back Pivetta and the Boston offense here to get it done on the road. 

Expert Red Sox vs. Rangers Picks

  • Red Sox Moneyline (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Red Sox ML (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

 


 

Best MLB Player Props Today, 8/4

  • Robbie Ray Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Paul Skenes Over 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Tobias Myers Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140 BetMGM)