Welcome back to another Sunday of MLB picks as we take a closer look at all of today’s matchups. Let’s dive into MLB best bets and props as you enjoy the weekend action!

Our top MLB predictions today feature the Tigers vs. Angels AL matchup and an inter-league contest between the Nationals and Rays. Plus, we wrap up our Sunday baseball betting card with some top MLB props. 

Enjoy the afternoon and night baseball as we cash our plays! 

 

 

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 6/30

As always, be sure to shop around for the best Vegas odds and lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. 

Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and props for Sunday, June 30th!

 

 


 

Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels Prediction Today, June 30th

The Los Angeles Angels have been a team to bet against for the most part this season, but we’re backing them today. Tyler Anderson gives us that opportunity in a favorable matchup against the Detroit Tigers. Let’s break it down. 

Anderson has an impressive 2.63 ERA through 16 starts for LA so far. The veteran left-hander is having a bounceback season after posting a 5.43 ERA a year ago. Although Anderson’s advanced metrics (4.77 FIP, 4.71 xERA) suggest negative regression, it likely won’t come this weekend. The Tigers have poor season-long numbers vs. left-handed pitching with a .287 wOBA and 84 wRC+. Anderson, meanwhile, boasts a 2.34 ERA over his past 8 starts. 

On the other side, let’s hope the Angels provide some run support for Anderson. It’s Casey Mize on the mound for Detroit as he brings a 4.54 ERA and 1.49 WHIP into this start. The right-hander has had some decent outings, but we can usually count on him to cough up a few runs. Mize has a 4.18 ERA over his past 5 starts and a 5.36 ERA over the past 10 starts. 

The Los Angeles offense has been just average vs. right-handers over the past two weeks (.304 wOBA, 92 wRC+), but this is more of a fade of Mize. The Tigers are 3-7 over his past 10 starts and he’s pitched less than 5 innings in 5 of his last 7 outings. Mize also has a 5.93 ERA on the road this season.

There’s value on backing the Angels today. Let’s take them on the moneyline for the full game and first five innings. 

Expert Tigers vs. Angels Picks

  • Angels Moneyline (-110 BetMGM)
  • 1st 5 Innings Angels ML (-115 BetMGM)

 

 


 

Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction Today, June 30th

Happy “Fade Patrick Corbin” Day! It’s everyone’s favorite holiday that, thankfully, comes around once every five days or so. It’s become pretty popular to bet against Corbin when he starts for the Washington Nationals, but the stats and trends support it this weekend against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Corbin has an ugly 5.46 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 16 starts this season. Though he’s had some decent outings lately, the Washington left-hander still has a 4.37 ERA over his past 4 starts and a 4.71 ERA over his past 10 starts. His 6.48 xERA is also very worrisome.

In turn, the Nationals are not faring well overall when Corbin is on the mound. They are 5-11 in Corbin’s starts this year, including 1-7 over the past eight games. Furthermore, 10 of those 11 losses have come by multiple runs. The Nats are also being outscored 92-55 in Corbin’s outings. 

The Rays are a league-average offense vs. left-handed pitching this season (.308 wOBA, 104 wRC+). They are a bit better over the past two weeks against lefties with a .315 wOBA and 109 wRC+. Either way, Tampa Bay is good enough in the split to get to Corbin like most of his opponents are doing these days. 

Meanwhile, Taj Bradley starts for the Rays and there are reasons for optimism there. The right-hander has a so-so 3.81 ERA this season, but that looks worse due to two poor outings. He allowed 9 runs to the Orioles and 5 runs to the Red Sox. If we factor those out, Bradley has an impressive 1.60 ERA across his 7 other starts this year. His 29.6% strikeout rate (90th MLB percentile) is also encouraging. 

Washington is an average offense against right-handed pitching this year with a .302 wOBA and 94 wRC+. We’re really focusing on Bradley, though, to have another good start like he’s done pretty much all season – outside of those two blowups. It’s worth noting that the Tampa righty is on the positive end of his home/road splits with a stellar 2.04 ERA at home this year compared to an 8.16 road ERA. 

Expert Nationals vs. Rays Picks

  • Rays -1.5 Runline (+118 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Rays -0.5 RL (-130 FanDuel Sportsbook)

 

 


 

Best MLB Player Props Today, 6/30