Sunday’s MLB slate brings us another full day of baseball as we dive into MLB picks and predictions. Our top MLB bets today focus on the Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays matchup and then the Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals game. Plus, we wrap up our Sunday baseball betting card with some top MLB props. Enjoy the weekend baseball as we cash our MLB picks! 

 

 


 

MLB Picks, Predictions, & Best Bets Today, 6/16

As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds and lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and baseball predictions for Sunday, June 16th!
 

Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction Today, 6/16

On the surface, the starting pitching matchup of Ben Lively vs. Jose Berrios may point to a lower-scoring outcome between the Cleveland Guardians and Toronto Blue Jays today. However, we’re going in the other direction with some advanced metrics pointing that way. 

Jose Berrios owns a 2.93 ERA for Toronto this season, but he’s a major negative regression candidate. The right-hander’s 4.56 FIP and 4.38 xERA are both notably higher than that sub-3.00 ERA. He has an unsustainable 88.0% strand rate to go along with an 18.9% strikeout rate – his lowest since his rookie season. Berrios’ 44.1% hard-hit rate (15th percentile) and 20.8% whiff rate (18th percentile) are also very concerning. 

Put it all together and we should expect some shaky outings for Berrios moving forward. He’ll face a Guardians offense that’s hitting right-handed pitching well lately. Over the past week vs. righties, Cleveland has a .366 wOBA, 144 wRC+, .284 BA, and .852 OPS. This is a tough spot for Berrios to continue over-performing. 

On the other side, Guardians starter Ben Lively has an impressive 2.59 ERA but he’s due for a shaky outing soon. The righty’s underlying metrics (3.86 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, 3.51 ERA) suggest he’s been a bit lucky. His 88.1% strand rate is also hard to trust. Plus, check out some of Lively’s Statcast numbers: 23.3% chase rate (10th MLB percentile), 19.6% whiff rate (12th), 90.6 average fastball velocity (13th), 42.7% hard-hit rate (23rd). 

The Blue Jays offense is middle-of-the-pack against right-handers this season, so there’s not much to go off there. This is more of a fade of Lively, who could easily revert back to the pitcher who had a 5.38 ERA last year. Grab the over for the full game and first five innings as we hope either or both Berrios and Lively come back down to Earth. 

Expert Guardians vs. Blue Jays Picks

  • Over 7.5 Total Runs (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 Runs (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

 


 

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Prediction Today, 6/16

Sunday’s game between the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals doesn’t exactly carry a ton of interest for the casual MLB fan. Still, there’s some betting value in this matchup – even if you don’t want to tune in. 

The starting pitchers, Jesus Luzardo and Mitchell Parker, admittedly aren’t the best. Yet, both left-handers are in very favorable spots. Both the Marlins and Nationals are arguably the two worst offenses against left-handed pitching this season. Miami’s .266 wOBA, 70 wRC+, .599 OPS, and .099 ISO vs. lefties are all dead-last in the majors. Washington, meanwhile, is second-worst in all of those categories. 

Jesus Luzardo has a poor 5.11 ERA overall this season. However, he’s actually been decent besides a few blowups. The Marlins’ southpaw has allowed 5+ runs in three different starts but if we factor those out, he has a 2.64 ERA across his 8 other outings. Obviously, it’s hard to ignore those duds but he’s still been effective more often than not this year. Plus, Luzardo’s 3.83 FIP is notably lower than that high ERA. Over the past two weeks vs. lefties, the Nats have a .255 wOBA, 64 wRC+, .200 BA, and .559 OPS.

Washington starter Mitchell Parker has been solid with a 3.21 ERA in his rookie season so far. He’s been better at home, where he has a 2.45 ERA with 3 quality starts across four outings. We get Parker at home here and, again, he has a good matchup. As mentioned above, the Marlins are the MLB’s worst against left-handed pitching this season and aren’t much better over the past two weeks (.272 wOBA, 75 wRC+, .613 OPS). 

Let’s take the under for both the full game and first five innings with these two weaker offenses. Just hope the bullpens don’t blow some likely good outings from Parker and Luzardo. 

Expert Marlins vs. Nationals Picks

  • Under 8.5 Total Runs (-122 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-125 BetMGM)

 

 


 

Best MLB Player Props Today, 6/16

  • Tylor Megill Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Huston Waldrep Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130 BetMGM)
  • Dylan Cease Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)