Saturday brings us another full slate of MLB action as we lock in top baseball picks today. Our MLB bets feature two American League matchups with Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles picks and then Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox picks. Plus, we wrap up our Saturday betting card with some top MLB props. Enjoy the weekend baseball as we cash our MLB picks! 

 

 


 

MLB Picks, Predictions, & Best Bets Today, 6/1

As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds and lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and baseball predictions for Saturday, June 1st!

 

 

 

Rays vs. Orioles Prediction Today, 6/1

After getting swept by the Cardinals last week, the Baltimore Orioles are back to their winning ways with a 7-1 record over the past eight. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays are slumping with a 3-8 mark over their past 11 contests. The O’s have Kyle Bradish starting on Saturday and has us looking the home team’s way again. 

Bradish has looked very strong over five starts this season with a 1.75 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and .174 batting average against. We shouldn’t see much negative regression either, according to his 2.27 xERA and 2.12 FIP. The Baltimore right-hander is also coming off seven no-hit innings with 11 strikeouts last time out. Check out how Bradish’s advanced stats paint a clearer picture of his dominance. 

 

2024 Bradish

MLB Percentile

xERA

2.27

97th

K %

32.1

92nd

Hard-Hit %

19.3

100th

xBA

.163

98th

Avg Exit Velo

83.5

99th

Let’s back Bradish to keep it going at home in a favorable matchup. The Tampa Bay Rays have one of the worst offenses against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks with a .275 wOBA (29th in MLB), 81 wRC+ (27th), .208 BA (27th), and .602 OPS (29th). This continues the Rays’ season-long struggles vs righties as a bottom-five offense in the split. 

On the other side, Baltimore’s bats should provide run support against Tampa starter Taj Bradley. The righty has a solid 3.13 ERA through four starts but his 4.74 xERA is glaring. Remember, this is the same guy who struggled to a 5.59 ERA last year. Bradley’s low .235 BABIP is one thing, but his high hard-hit rate (44.4%), barrel rate (18.5%), and average exit velocity (91.1 mph) are even more concerning. 

The Orioles are crushing right-handed pitching lately. They have a .348 wOBA (5th), 129 wRC+ (5th), .187 ISO (5th), and .274 BA (2nd) over the past week vs righties. Let’s take Baltimore to win and cover the runline for both the first five innings and the full game. The Orioles’ last 9 wins have all been by 2+ runs, including last night’s 3-1 win over Tampa. The Rays, conversely, have failed to cover the runline in 10 of their last 11 games. 

Expert Rays vs. Orioles Picks

  • Orioles -1.5 Runline (+134 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Orioles 1st 5 Innings -0.5 RL (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)

 

 

 

Tigers vs. Red Sox Prediction Today, 6/1

Reese Olson has been a surprising breakout player for the Detroit Tigers in his second season so far. The 24-year-old right-hander is rocking a 1.92 ERA and 1.05 WHIP through 10 starts and he just posted a 0.64 ERA across five May outings. Despite the hot start, it may be a good time to sell high on Olson.

The Detroit starter is likely due for negative regression soon based on some shaky underlying metrics. Olson’s 3.26 xERA and 3.82 xFIP suggest he’s gotten a bit lucky compared to that 1.92 ERA. His .245 BABIP and 74.3% left-on-base rate are two reasons for that. Some more concerning numbers are his very low 2.1% HR/FB rate, a 44.4% hard-hit rate (15th MLB percentile), and an average exit velocity of 90.5 mph (16th MLB percentile). Olson’s 20.5% strikeout rate is also worrisome. 

Let’s fade Olson today in a road matchup at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are about league-average against right-handed pitching this season and, honestly, don’t offer much confidence. This is more of a fade of Olson, though, and banking on his negative regression. 

The Detroit offense should also add to the total as we grab the over in this one. Boston starter Cooper Criswell is having an up-and-down season with a 3.96 ERA and 3.79 FIP through nine outings. The right-hander hasn’t been as sharp lately with a 6.50 ERA over his past four starts, including 7 runs allowed to Baltimore last time out. 

The Tigers, meanwhile, are crushing righties over the past two weeks with a .349 wOBA, 128 wRC+, .203 ISO, .275 BA, and .811 OPS. They can get to Criswell here. Detroit games are 11-3 to the over in the past 14 contests and 18-7 to the over in the past 25 games. That includes last night’s 7-3 loss to Boston in the series opener. 

Expert Tigers vs. Red Sox Picks

  • Over 8.5 Total Runs (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Over 4 Runs (-120 BetMGM)

 

 


 

Best MLB Player Props Today, 6/1