With an early start here on Thursday, it’s time to check in with the MLB Best Bets and Prop Bets for today!

We open the day with a fair warning that this is not a slate we are going to play heavily. Not only do we have the early start – and I have never been shy about my disdain for betting day games – but we also only have seven games from which to choose. On top of that, there are potential weather issues to pay attention to as there is projected rain in both Cincinnati and Chicago. There was some concern in the Colorado area as well, but it looks like the rain should miss the stadium. That means our focus and our options are much more limited.

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/9

What really bums me out is that we are coming off such a great day yesterday and it would have been nice to carry that momentum into today’s MLB picks and predictions. Surprisingly, it was the Phillies coming up short against Chris Bassitt and the Rays going back into the offensive tank that kept us from a really wild Wednesday, but anytime you can walk away from a day of MLB betting up four units, it’s a great day.

One note, before we move forward – I received an email from a subscriber asking for more full-game bets because some first-five inning bets are not available at some books. While it’s very easy to say yes, I don’t want to make too many promises. How many times have we seen a pitcher dominate only to watch the bullpen blow a money line bet for us? Or how about when the bullpen coughs up runs, the game goes to extra-innings and, with that stupid ghost-runner on second, the game total gets blown up? 

Anyone watch Wednesday’s Orioles/Nationals game? Baltimore was up 3-1 until Craig Kimbrel gave up two runs in the bottom of the ninth and the next thing we know the game is 7-6 in 12 innings? The first-five inning bet helps minimize that risk. All I can say is I will do my best, but I won’t make any promises. We look for lines that have value and we want to minimize risk. We don’t want to be guessing here and we don’t want to pin our financial hopes on shaky bullpens.

Anyway, let’s get to it.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 7-2
  • Season Record: 108-85-1
  • Bankroll: +11.80 units

*Each of my top MLB picks will be accompanied by their respective odds.

Cardinals vs. Brewers Prediction: Thursday, May 9

Sonny Gray takes the mound for the Cardinals again and he’s flat-out on fire right now. At some point regression will kick in and his overall numbers will normalize, but for now, we are lavishing in a 0.89 ERA and 0.86 WHIP with 38 strikeouts over just 30.1 innings. The Brewers may have gotten Christian Yelich back into the lineup recently, but the team is still mired in an offensive slump, having lost four of their last five with a .296 wOBA, a 24-percent strikeout rate and averaging just 3.4 runs per game over that span. I wanted to take them on the early money line but the value is lost so we’ll incur a but of risk and hope the Cardinals bats support him early.

Tobias Myers is on the bump for the Brewers and he’s been roughed up in back-to-back outings, allowing eight earned runs over his last eight innings. Granted, this Cardinals lineup is nowhere near as potent as those of the Cubs and Yankees, but Myers just isn’t experienced enough. The Cardinals tend to whiff a little too much but they’ve shown some improvement over the past week. 

Expert Cardinals vs. Brewers Picks:

  • Cardinals First 5 innings -0.5 run line (+100 on BetMGM)
  • Tobias Myers over 3.5 strikeouts (-125 on Bet365)
  • Cardinals vs. Brewers Total Runs under 8 runs (-115 on BetMGM) 
 

Diamondbacks vs. Reds Prediction: Thursday, May 9

It’s a struggling Cincinnati offense against a struggling Slade Cecconi that highlights this match-up and with the game being in Great American Smallpark, we’ll take the Reds bats in this one, but minimize the risk and stay on an early money line bet. Cecconi got wrecked in his last outing and could have some lingering issues knowing just how hitter-friendly this park is and, on the other side we have Hunter Greene who has seemingly worked through his early-season struggles. In fact, Greene hasn’t allowed a run in his last 12.2 innings. The DBacks continue to struggle against right handed pitching, posting a .290 wOBA against them on the year. 

Expert Diamondbacks vs. Reds Picks:

  • Reds First 5 Innings Money Line (-130 on Bet365)
  • Diamondbacks/Reds Total Runs under 8.5 (-108 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
 

Giants vs. Rockies Prediction: Thursday, May 9

It’s another Coors Field extravaganza and after yesterday’s 14-run explosion, we’ll look to more runs being scored here today, at least in the first half of the game. Giants righty, Keaton Winn, who typically averages a strikeout per inning, is looking to bounce back after getting shelled by the Phillies his last time out, but even with the strong ground ball rate, could have some issues with the park.

Cal Quantrill, on the bump for the Rockies, is having his own issues in Colorado, sporting a 4.76 ERA over just 17 innings at Coors. With the Giants bats waking up – 13 runs scored over the last two games in Coors – they should get to him a little early.

Expert Giants vs. Rockies Picks:

  • Giants/Rockies First 5 Innings over 4.5 runs (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Keaton Winn over 4.5 strikeouts (-105 on BetMGM)