MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for July 3
The clock is ticking on the 2023 MLB season and we are nearly at the official mid-point of the season with the All-Star break just about a week away. The MLB Bet Bets and Betting picks have been grinding away and we’ll keep going strong until the break and see if we can’t finish the first half on a positive note. I’ve been chipping away at my own personal deficit from this column by adding in a number of MLB prop bets and that seems to be helping augment our play whether you’ve chosen to bet them straight-up or tie them into a same game parlay. We’ve got an abbreviated slate here on Monday, so let’s just dive in and see what MLB bets for today look good.
- Saturday’s Record: 3-2
- Season Record: 105-101-4
- Bankroll: -8.38 units
MLB Best Bets for July 3
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
While Twins starter Joe Ryan has had some recent ups and downs, most recently getting annihilated by the Atlanta Braves, this is a much different situation against the Royals. Not only does Kansas City have the second-lowest team wOBA against righthanded pitching (.289) for the season, but they’ve been ice cold at the plate with a .263 wOBA and .052 ISO over the last week. They’re also striking out 24.4-percent against righties, so that should help our cause for what we want to bet today. The Royals are throwing lefty Austin Cox who has been moved out of the bullpen in the wake of some of their pitching injuries. He struggled against Cleveland his last time out and failed to pitch out of the fourth inning. We’ll see how long he goes, but it should help that the Twins have a .291 wOBA with a 26.5-percent strikeout rate against lefties. We’re not expecting Cox to dominate the Twins lineup, but we also don’t have a lot of confidence in Minnesota to put up big numbers based on their struggles this season. Even the struggles of the Royals bullpen are giving us enough concern to stray from betting the under.
Pick: Royals/Twins under 9 runs (-105 on Caesars Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres
While some sites have Blake Snell listed as the Padres starter, the books have it listed as undecided so that affects some of the lines, obviously. But in this case here, we aren’t even concerned with who is pitching for San Diego. Instead, we are going to stay focused on the fact that the Angels are giving Shohei Ohtani an extra day to let his cracked fingernail heal and that means they are pushing righthander Jaime Barria to pitch tonight on four-days rest. Lefthanded hitters are crushing him this season with a .345 wOBA and righties are hitting for power against him. The Padres may have lost seven of their last 10 games, but they are averaging 5.5 runs per game in that span. With Barria on short rest and the Padres back at home, we expect them to put some runs on the board tonight.
Pick: San Diego Padres team total over 4.5 runs (+100 on Draft Kings Sportsbook)
Pick: Jake Cronenworth over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)*
*This player prop is more gut feeling than anything else. I am betting it on its own, but I could certainly understand you being a little gun-shy with Cronenworth.
Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians
I know everyone loves Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams and in his last outing, he blanked the Royals for seven innings, but while this kid may have a bright future, this Braves lineup is absolutely ridiculous right now. Not only have they won eight in a row, but they’ve also won 16 of their last 17 games and have averaged 7.65 runs per game over that span. That’s just ridiculous. They lead the league in every offensive category (including nose hair) against righthanded pitching and they have a .415 wOBA with a .372 ISO over the past week. Again, just ridiculous. Williams may be a high-end prospect but no one wants a piece of this Braves lineup. On the other side, the Braves are throwing Bryce Elder who may not be Mr. Strikeout, but he’s thrown three-straight quality starts and has given up just three earned runs over his last 19 innings. Expect Atlanta to jump out to an early lead and hold it, at least through the first five innings. They’ll probably win outright, but there’s not a lot of value on the money line.
Pick: Atlanta Braves 1st 5 Innings -0.5 run line (-105 on BetMGM)
Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.