The 2023 MLB season has been an interesting one with regard to betting. We were successful in attacking the bottom-feeders such as the Oakland Athletics, Washington Nationals and Detroit Tigers, but as the season has moved on and the books begin to correct themselves and the odds, it’s been a much more difficult task. The Athletics are 8-13 against the run line this season which, considering the lineup and starting pitching, is almost as surprising as seeing the Nationals as 12-8 against the run line. Before you just blindly assume a blowout because a favorite it minus-320 on the money line, be sure to research trends we are seeing. This is one of those reasons I urge people to take it slow to start. The MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks were off to a fantastic start, but reality has set in and now people are understanding why betting baseball is not just some easy task.

  • Yesterday’s Record: 0-2-1
  • Season Record: 36-26-1
  • Bankroll: +5.17 units

Lots of early action today, so let’s get started.

 

 

MLB Best Bets for April 23 

Boston Red Sox at Milwaukee Brewers

The Red Sox are going to give Brayan Bello another turn in the rotation here despite watching the difficulties he had in his first start against the Angels. He allowed eight hits and walked one while giving up five runs in 2.2 innings and never looked comfortable on the bump, even at home in Fenway. Now he squares off against a Brewers team that has won five of their last six, is 6-2 at home this season and has averaged roughly five runs per game this season. They have a .341 wOBA against righthanded pitching this season and while they aren’t hitting a boatload of homers, they are still the seventh-best team at creating runs. I don’t love the juice on the money line and I don’t feel like chasing long odds on their run line as the home team. Still, I want a piece of this Brewers offense today so we’ll dive into their team total.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Team Total over 4.5 runs (-105 on BetMGM)

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels

We’ve spent so much time picking on Oakland, Detroit and Washington that maybe we’ve overlooked picking on the Royals a little too much. They have a minus-50 run differential on the season, have averaged just over three runs per game and they continue to lose at an incredibly rapid rate. They also happen to be 6-15 against the run line this season, so seeing them put Jordan Lyles on the mound and watching them face Reid Detmers, it makes me want to be a part of this Angels team today, especially coming off a loss. The Royals have the lowest wOBA against righties (.255) and they strike out 26-percent of the time. Detmers has been solid this season and his 19 strikeouts over 16 innings gives a little more allure to this match-up. Meanwhile, Lyles continues down his path of mediocrity and should struggle in today’s effort. We’re going to push towards the Royals struggles against the run line and side with the Halos today.

Pick: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 Run Line (-110 on Caesars Sportsbook)

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs

There is no doubt in my mind that the Cubs are one of the biggest surprises in baseball right now. They’re 12-8 on the season with a plus-43 run differential and they are 10-1 in their last 11 games against a lefty. With Clayton Kershaw on the mound, it has me leaning towards some plus-odds here. Marcus Stroman has been fantastic this season, going at least six innings in each of his four starts with just two runs allowed all season. Yes, the Dodgers have hit right-handed pitching well this season, but Stroman also has great history against this Dodgers lineup, limiting them to just a .209 average against him. Kershaw, believe it or not, has not had as much success against them and he’s actually below .500 in his career at Wrigley Field. We’ve got to try to build that bankroll up a bit with risking more than we want to spend, so we’ll side with recent trends and take a stab at some plus-odds.

Pick: Chicago Cubs Money Line (+118 on Caesars Sportsbook) 

**all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned