When drafting your fantasy baseball team, finding value in the later rounds can make all the difference. Today, I’m highlighting some of my favorite late-round starting pitcher targets—guys who are being drafted after pick 250 and have the potential to significantly outperform their ADP, using NFBC ADP over the last month. 

In this 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, we’ve identified several arms that could provide sneaky upside, whether it’s a bounce-back candidate, a breakout prospect, or a converted reliever stepping into a rotation role. These pitchers may not be household names or early-round locks, but they have the tools and opportunity to deliver major fantasy value in 2025.

 

 

 

SP Fantasy Baseball ADP - Starting Pitcher Late Round Targets

Walker Buehler, Boston Red Sox, ADP 257

Everything came together for Walker Buehler in his age-26 season in 2021 when he threw 207.2 innings with a 2.47 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP and finished 4th in the NL Cy Young voting, but then he was shut down and had Tommy John the following year and missed the entire 2023 season. 

He struggled in his return from surgery last season, posting a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP through 75.1 innings for the Dodgers, but ended the season strong for the Dodgers's championship run, throwing 15 innings with a 3.60 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. I think that Buehler has a great chance to rebound this season with the Red Sox getting a fully healthy offseason.

 He may not get all the way back to the strikeout rates and complete dominance from his early career, but I think there is a ton of room for the 30-year-old to get back to being a solid top-end rotation starter and return a ton of value at his current ADP. 

Clay Holmes, New York Mets, ADP 329

Clay Holmes has the stuff to make the transition to the rotation work. He has a great arsenal of pitches, and his stuff is fantastic with a 124 Stuff+. He will likely see that number come down slightly in the rotation, but he can afford to lose a little and still be dominant. He has a deep arsenal that should make the transition easy for him without changing how he pitches too much. 

There could be some questions about how many innings he can pitch in his first season as a full-time starting pitcher, but we just saw Michael King make the transition and throw 173.2 innings. I wouldn’t be surprised if he can do a similar level of production, and the Mets' lack of starting pitching means they will have to rely on him and should push him to put up a good number of innings this season. 

 

 

 

Jose Soriano, Los Angeles Angels, ADP 407

Jose Soriano had a solid season last year for the Angels, going 113 innings with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. His biggest struggle was staying healthy, but it looks like he should be entering the season healthy, and if he can manage to build on his number of innings, the results could take another step forward as well. 

He has an elite fastball with a sinker that sits at 99 MPH, yes, sits. He pairs that with an above average slider and changeup with a passable fastball to mix in with the sinker and the emergence of a Splitter that has the potential to be his best pitch.

 He checks so many boxes of things you want from a great starting pitcher with an elite fastball, multiple fastballs, and multiple above-average off-speed pitches. Going after pick 400 Soriano has incredible upside and could return a lot of value late in drafts. 

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels ADP 455

Going after another Angel here. Reid Detmers has shown flashes of being fantastic and then also has had stretches where it looks like he shouldn’t be a major league pitcher. Last season was rough for Detmers, posting a 6.70 ERA and 1.56 WHIP through 87.1 innings (and his 78 innings in AAA weren’t much better).

The strikeout numbers have still been fantastic despite the poor results, and I think some bad luck made his season look even worse than it was with a .357 BABIP, and he had a 4.14 xERA and 3.86 xFIP. His slider is amazing and will help him continue to get a ton of strikeouts, but I think he can still figure out something to get more consistent results and take a step forward this season. If it doesn’t come together this season, it might be time to finally move on.

 

 

 

Luis L. Ortiz, Cleveland Guardians ADP 465

Luis L. Ortiz is being overlooked, and he could be a really solid pitcher for the Cleveland Guardians this season. The move to Cleveland from Pittsburgh helps him across the board, as he should get more wins, have a better defense, and have a more pitcher-friendly home park. The strikeout rate isn’t great, and while I don’t think he will ever develop into a big strikeout pitcher, I believe he has room to improve it a bit.

 Even without the big strikeout rate, he should be able to pitch his way to solid results, and I think this Cleveland team will need innings from him and should give him the opportunity to take a big step up in innings pitched this season if he can stay healthy and the ratios should continue to be pretty good for a pitcher you can get this late. 

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins, ADP 534

Zebby Matthews is one of my favorite young prospects in the league right now. His little taste in the big leagues last season wasn’t great, but it was only 37.2 innings, so I’m not holding the 6.69 ERA and 1.65 WHIP against him too much. He has a fantastic arsenal with a decent fastball and cutter and an above-average slider and curveball. He has also been working on his changeup over the off-season, which could be a big difference-maker. 

I don’t want to let 5 spring training innings confirm my love for him too much but seeing 7 strikeouts and 0 walks in those first 5 innings is a pretty great start and if he keeps pitching well I don’t think that Chris Paddack and Simeon Woods Richardson will stand in his way of breaking into this rotation right away. 

Osvaldo Bido, Sacramento Athletics, ADP 561

Osvaldo Bido looked great in his 63.1 innings last season with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Bido has three above-average fastballs with a fastball with a fantastic slider. He had a solid 24.3% strikeout rate last season, and he could move that even higher with his stuff. 

The innings projections are coming in a bit light for him as well. They all have him in a hybrid role moving between the rotation and the bullpen, but he has a chance to stick in the rotation all season and potentially push closer to the 150 inning mark. 

There are also questions about how many wins he will get and what the ballpark will play like in Sacramento, but at this late of an ADP, the upside that he brings is well worth a shot, even with the question marks around his role and the team I am willing to bet on the talent at this point in the draft.