It’s been a very interesting run through the first six weeks of the 2024 NFL season, and it sounds like the Fantasy Alarm #FAmily is having a solid DFS season. 

Our cash game play has been strong and should be keeping you in the green if you are using 50/50 contests to offset any GPP losses. That’s the name of the game, actually, though a lot of people miss it, so before we jump into the best NFL DFS Week 7 Watch List, a reminder on contest selection is always helpful.

 

 

 

Most casual DFS players are blinded by the big payouts. You see someone on social media posting a screenshot of a six-figure win and immediately you wonder, “why not me?” You start looking at that $3 entry fee for the Play-Action on DraftKings or the NFL Rush on FanDuel and the next thing you know, you’re 20 lineups deep in each contest and wondering why you’re not turning a profit. 

We can discuss “donkey contests” and why you should avoid them all we want, but people are still going to chase the dream of the million-dollar win. I’m not here to lecture you. I can advise, something I’ve been doing here for years, but you are your own person and it’s your money. 

So rather than berate you for buying a scratcher at the corner bodega (basically the same as entering the Milly-Maker, I choose to point you towards the direction of cash games to keep you from losing your money and your mind at the same time. Weeks of GPP losses add up and if you are just funneling money to the DFS sites with only scraps in return every few weeks, you’re going to get frustrated and walk away.

This is why I preach cash-game play. It’s not exciting and you’re not winning big money until you start to level-up on your entrance fees (another conversation for us to have), but what you are doing is covering your GPP entry losses. When you build your lineups for GPP tournaments, you’re looking for ceiling, not floor. You want high-upside guys who appear primed to hit it big in a game. 

You’re doing things like stacking and worrying about lineup correlation to maximize points. Problem is, when you shoot for the moon, you often miss. That’s just the nature of the game. If Xavier Worthy gets four catches for 110 yards that includes a 50-yard touchdown, that’s GPP gold. But he stands as great a chance of catching one pass for 20 yards. High ceiling, low floor. You can’t expect to hit it big with every GPP lineup you build.

But when you play in a cash game – a 50/50 – you’re looking for high-floor, reliable players. You might want to paid a quarterback with his favorite pass-catcher, but things like stacking aren’t necessary. In fact, you want to avoid it in a cash game unless you truly believe that game is going to pop and even then, it’s risky. 

If your stack doesn’t hit, you’re screwed. But if you build a sensible, no-fat, high-floor lineup based off the research we do here and the suggestions we provide, you can beat half the field, double your money and cover any potential GPP losses.  That way, you don’t take losses when your GPP lineup fails and when it hits, you end up turning a good week into a great one.

We can certainly talk more on this if you need to, but I’m pretty sure you get the gist. If not, hit me up in the Fantasy Alarm Discord and we can go over it, as well as things like proper contest selection and leveling-up in entrance fees, something you should always strive fore each week. For now, let’s get to the players I’m watching this week in the best NFL DFS Week 7 Watch List.

 

 
 

 

Best NFL DFS Week 7 Watch List For 2024

With another Monday Night Football double-header, the Week 7 DFS main slate is just 10 games on DraftKings and 11 on FanDuel as they continue to keep the Sunday Night game on their main slate. I actually don’t hate it. Some do. I don’t mind it, especially if it’s a game that has some potential. 

Two weeks ago, my FanDuel lineup was cruising and I still had Najee Harris and Jalen Tolbert to go while the majority of the competitors around me were done. Every time Tolbert caught a ball and, eventually that touchdown, I watched my lineup creep up the standings. Had Arthur Smith not taken a dump on Najee Harris, it would have been better, but I’ll still take green.

This week’s Sunday Night game could be interesting if Davante Adams is available to us, but I don’t want to get ahead of myself here. I’ll wait and see what happens over the next few days. Chances are he will be available, so when I know for sure, I’ll update here. In the meantime, here are some of my favorite picks I’m watching this week for the best NFL DFS Week 7 Watch List.

 

 

 

Top DraftKings DFS Week 7 Watch List

Andy Dalton, QB Carolina Panthers ($5,200)

The game total for the Commanders vs. Panthers is sitting at 51.5 right now and I am more than ready to get a piece of the action. While most flock to Jayden Daniels, I’m going to play the narrative that Dalton is the one who is going to need to throw more often. 

The Panthers run defense is atrocious and I expect to see a lot of Brian Robinson (if healthy, see below). That’s not to ay you don’t throw on Carolina, but it’s more a matter of need than anything else. If they don’t have to throw it heavily, they won’t.

But for the Panthers, it could be all about chucking the ball downfield in an effort to keep pace. If the Panthers are playing from behind, Dalton is going to be slinging the rock against a defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass, has allowed an average of 216.3 passing yards per game and 10 touchdowns through the air. Opposing quarterbacks are posting a 114.7 passer rating against them and Dalton has the weapons to get the job done. For this price? Yes, please!

Brian Robinson, RB Washington Commanders ($6,400)

So, if you’re looking for a little correlation to your Andy Dalton/Panthers stack, then Robinson is my guy. We’ll check in on his health during the week and see if he’s back at practice. 

If he plays, he’s running against a defense that is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game, has allowed a league-high 12 rushing touchdowns this season and is giving up the most fantasy points per game to the running back position. If he’s out, we’ll look to pivot to either Jeremy McNichols or even Austin Ekeler.

DK Metcalf, WR Seattle Seahawks ($6,800)

Listen, if DraftKings isn’t going to price him up with the high-end guys then I am going to keep using him each and every week. Wil there be some games he doesn’t produce? Sure, but knowing his upside is 100-plus yards and a touchdown each week, we’re going to hit with Metcalf a lot more than we are going to miss.

And this week against Atlanta is going to be a hit as their pass defense ranks 21st in DVOA overall and 26th against the opposing WR1. The Falcons sit in zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL and Metcalf’s numbers against zone are all spectacular, from routes run to targets share. Big week coming. 

George Kittle, TE San Francisco 49ers ($6,000)

If we were to look at this as a core group for your DFS lineup, using Dalton and a discounted Metcalf is going to allow you to pay up at tight end and Kittle is in a prime spot facing the Chiefs this week. Kansas City has struggled to cover the tight end this season and are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position. 

Kittle has found the end zone in each of his last four games, including a two-score performance against the Seahawks last week. If he can get his usual seven-targets-per-game average, he should be able to post numbers that make the juice worth the squeeze.

 

 

 

Best FanDuel DFS Week 7 Watch List

Geno Smith, QB Seattle Seahawks ($7,600)

Reading the Metcalf section up above should put you on Smith as well and rightfully so. This game against the Falcons has some serious shootout vibes with its 51-point game total and with the way Smith is slinging the rock in Ryan Grubb’s offense, it makes sense to be invested in the Seattle passing attack. 

Smith is throwing roughly 40 times a game and with the zone defense the Falcons play, he should have no trouble reaching his targets. Expect a strong back-and-forth in this one and look for Smith to approach another 300-yard effort.

Kyren Williams, RB Los Angeles Rams ($8,600)

There is plenty of value to be found at the wide receiver position which is going to allow us to pay up for a high-end running back. So many people dismiss Williams and this week, with the possibility that Cooper Kupp returns, won’t be any different. 

Sean McVay loves running this offense through Williams and he will look to establish the run early on. The Raiders rank 28th in DVOA against the run, allow the ninth-most rushing yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. It’s wheels-up for Williams in Week 7.

Christian Watson, WR Green Bay Packers ($5,900)

The oft-injured wide receiver with the asymmetrical hamstrings is back on the field and showed you last week that he is still the favorite field-stretcher for Jordan Love. This game against the Texans should be a nice battle of Love and C.J. Stroud trying to show each other up and the receivers will be the primary beneficiaries. 

The Texans rank 23rd in DVOA against the opposition’s WR2 and they’re allowing an average of 62.5 receiving yards per game to them. Watson’s perpetual injury-risk and low-floor keep him as a GPP play, but there is some cash-game potential down the road if he stays healthy and consistent.

Dalton Schultz, TE Houston Texans ($5,200)

If we’re paying up at running back and want to get at least one mid-to-high-priced wide receiver into our lineups then perhaps we pay down a little at tight end. Like I said with regard to Watson, there are definitely some shootout vibes in this game as Stroud and Love go toe-to-toe and the Packers have been struggling to contain the tight end this season. 

They rank 23rd in DVOA against the tight end, allowing almost 60 receiving yards per game. They are also allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position.

 

 
 

 

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