What is better than a holiday slate, folks? The nation will join together with single, national games on throughout the day. 

And there’s just enough action with six teams for us to make some diverse lineups and chase riches.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Thanksgiving TE Coach For FanDuel & DraftKings Fantasy

The tight end position is no exception, so we’ve got picks for you at every tier, a fade, and even a bonus dart throw! 

It is a special occasion, after all!

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Top Tier Picks For Thanksgiving

Jonnu Smith, TE Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $4,300 | FanDuel: $6,300

Nothing brings out the casual gamblers and fantasy gamers like a holiday slate. And anyone who hasn’t been paying attention is probably going to gravitate towards Sam LaPorta in this price range since he’s cheaper. Why pay up for Jonnu Smith?

You pay up for Jonnu Smith because Smith has finally fully taken over the “George Kittle role” in this scheme. Just like we see in San Francisco, the use of a fullback and blocking tight ends highly consolidates the targets among the top two wide receivers, the tight end, and the backs. That’s led Jonnu Smith to have at least 6 targets in 6 of his last 7 guys.

Not only does Smith have big play ability (he’s behind only Travis Kelce and the aforementioned George Kittle in 40+ yard plays over the last 7 years) but Green Bay has not been good against the tight end since DeVondre Campbell left to join the 49ers. They are currently the third worst team vs. the TE behind only the Jaguars and Panthers per DVOA over at FTN Fantasy. 

I’m going to make a LaPorta lineup or two as well just to differentiate a little as I do think they want to get him going and he played a 93% snap share last week but, if I was making only one lineup, I would use Jonnu Smith. He’s been very good.

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Mid-Tier Picks For Thanksgiving

Tucker Kraft, TE Green Bay Packers - DraftKings: $3,700 | FanDuel: $5,500

I’ll be honest with you - I don’t love the mid-tier tight ends here. But I really don’t love Cole Kmet, as you will see below in the Fades.

With Kraft we like the player a lot, especially in dynasty. We don’t like the target competition but, without Romeo Doubs this week, will at least be limited to Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and the sporadic rotational WR. 

Kraft is one of only a handful of pass-catchers with multiple 60+ yard plays this year and obviously the only tight end to do so. So, he doesn’t need a ton of targets to make things happen.

And just look at the other mid-tier tight ends in Cole Kmet, Luke Schoomnmaker, and Jake Ferguson (who is likely out). Kraft has by far the better quarterback and better matchup. The only argument for Schoonmaker is his spot on the target pecking order but we’ll get to that below. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Value Picks For Thanksgiving

Theo Johnson, TE New York Giants - DraftKings: $2,900 | FanDuel: $4,900

The Giants managed to claim Greg Dulcich off the waiver wire after he was released by the Denver Broncos. But there is zero chance they get him up to speed, let alone activate him for this game. So, Theo Johnson is your starter here.

Some folks might be scared away when they see Johnson on the injury report. If they were paying attention, they would know that this is the third week in a row the lingering back issue has landed him on the injury report.

In the last two games he’s played 92% and 73% of the snaps (and he only missed snaps in the last one because it was a 30-7 blowout, and they pulled the starters. In the first two games after Andrew Thomas got hurt, they asked him to block on 7 pass plays in each game but, over the last two, he’s only blocked in 3 in each. 

Outside of the Eagles game (also a 28-3 blowout) Theo Johnson has caught at least three passes in every game dating back to September. For a value play, it doesn’t get much better.

BONUS THANKSGIVING DART THROW: Brevyn Spann-Ford, TE Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $2,700 | FanDuel: $4,400

Luke Schoonmaker is going to be the paydown choice of many here. And he’s not a bad option. But last week he was really bailed out by the touchdown. And, if we are chasing touchdowns, this one might be a little closer to a toss-up than folks think. Schoonmaker is $3,400 while Spann-Ford is $2,700. 

Schoonmaker did have the advantage in snaps and routes run. He played 43 and ran 24. But Brevyn Spann-Ford quietly played 33 snaps and ran 16 routes. He caught 2 passes for 24 vs. 3 for 55 for Schoonmaker. In redraft, we obviously look at that and prefer Schoon Man. But in DFS we have to factor in both price and ownership numbers. 

And what it boils down to on such a small slate is this - if there is a tight end touchdown and it goes to Spann-Ford instead of Schoonmaker, we pull the rug on everyone. We aren’t talking Tucker Kraft running ~30 routes and Ben Sims running 3 here. This one is much closer than folks realize. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Fades For Thanksgiving

Cole Kmet, TE Chicago Bears - DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $5,200

Every few weeks fantasy gamers are tricked into thinking Cole Kmet is a viable fantasy option. He got 11 targets in a game without Keenan Allen when they threw 52 times. Then he scored 2 TDs against the worst TE defense in the league. Then this past week he got some targets again when they threw 47 times.

What we need to keep in mind here is that, in each of those games, two other wide receivers ALSO got double digit targets. We don’t expect Kmet to get 10 targets this week just like we don’t expect Keenan Allen to get 15 again. It’s why we use target share. And the target share for Kmet this season is 13.5% which isn’t even in the top 20 tight ends. 

On top of that he has the worst possible matchup for tight ends with the Detroit Lions. Do not get fooled. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS Week 13 TE Projections