A heated battle between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football kicks off the 2024 NFL season and Fantasy Alarm is here to provide you with the best NFL Survivor Pool strategy!

 

 

 

As a subscriber, you have probably read the Fantasy Alarm NFL Draft Guide cover-to-cover, including my article, "2024 NFL Survivor Pool Strategy: How I Won A $25,000 Pool Last Year." If not, you better go back and check it out right now. In the article, I lay out exactly what a Survivor Pool is, the best survivor pool strategy, including my seven steps to winning your survivor pool, and how best to go about making your survivor pool picks each week. 

It’s a quick and easy read if you haven’t, and if you have, let’s get ready for Week 1.

Best NFL Survivor Pool Strategy For 2024 NFL Week 1

Each week in this column, I will be providing you with my favorite survivor pool picks and as the season rolls on, some thoughts on the best survivor pool strategy. Things will start out fairly simple here in the opening weeks of the season. Depending on the size of your pool and the picks available to you each week, you will find times where it is important to be contrarian. 

Week 1 is not that week. Ever hear of the KISS system? It stands for Keep It Simple Stupid, and it takes center stage this week. The best survivor pool strategy is to pick winning teams. OK, I’m kidding, but yes, it’s true. Pick a winner and move on to next week. Live to fight another day. There is nothing worse than losing your survivor pool in Week 1, so there is absolutely no reason to get cute. 

As a Jets fan, I would love nothing more than to see Robert Saleh and Aaron Rodgers go into San Francisco and beat the 49ers. But am I going to use the Jets as one of my survivor pool picks? Absolutely not. You don’t have to use the chalkiest of the chalk, but when it comes to Week 1, my best survivor pool strategy to offer is you take one of the biggest favorites and move on to the next week.

 

 

 

NFL Survivor Pool Picks For Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5 Favorite; -395 Money Line)

The Bengals are the biggest favorites on the board this week and they will likely be the most-picked team this week. I am playing in a few different survivor pools this year, including Circa Survivor (thank you Winners Circle Proxy), and I will definitely be using them. Not for all of my picks, but definitely some. 

Even with Ja'Marr Chase in the midst of a contract dispute, the Bengals are a massive favorite over the New England Patriots and now that we’ve heard Chase returned to practice on Wednesday, it sounds like he could be on the field Sunday giving the Bengals an even bigger advantage.

Even without Chase, this game feels like a lay-up. Yes, “any given Sunday” and all that, but the Patriots are a team in transition right now, they’re using Jacoby Brissett to start the season and outside of Rhamondre Stevenson, they don’t really have much in the way of scoring weapons. Nothing wrong with eating some chalk in Week 1.

Buffalo Bills (-6.5 Favorite; -305 Money Line)

The Bills are a big home favorite over the Cardinals this week and should also be a popular pick. I definitely prefer using the Bengals over them, but you cannot overlook the consistency with which Buffalo provides. Sean McDermott and Joe Brady had things moving well last season after the firing of Ken Dorsey and while Josh Allen no longer has Stefon Diggs, he’s got solid receiving weapons in Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel, as well as a strong, supportive ground game. 

The Cardinals offense is going to have a tough match-up with this Bills defense and while I’m very bullish on Kyler Murray this season, along with his new receiving toy in Marvin Harrison, they are still putting things together for the long haul. They could be a surprise team later on in the year, but traveling across the county and playing against a team that suddenly has a chip on its shoulder, I’m not confident they will put all the pieces together just yet. Their defense is also a little suspect, as our Game Preview points out.

 

 

 

Seattle Seahawks (-6 Favorite; -250 Money Line)

It’s a new regime in Seattle and if you’ve followed me throughout the preseason, you know I am very bullish on Ryan Grubb’s offense, specifically DK Metcalf. But it’s more than that as Grubb, a former offensive line coach, knows how important it is to run the ball and control the clock. The Seahawks should put together a game plan that will make it very difficult for the Denver defense to keep pace. 

You also have a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix leading this Broncos offense. While he may be considered “local” having played his college ball in Oregon, it will be a hostile crowd in Seattle, as always. Nix is still learning the NFL ropes and you can bet some mistakes will be made. Going on the road for your first NFL experience is going to be jarring and while he may have a promising future, I don’t see him leading the Broncos past Seattle in this one.

New Orleans Saints (-3.5 Favorite; -185 Money Line)

As far as Week 1 survivor pool picks go, this might be the riskiest of them all. But the Saints at home are always tough and with Klint Kubiak and Rick Dennison running this offense, I expect to see a lot of Alvin Kamara against a run defense that was dead last in almost every metric. Yes, the Panthers have a new coaching regime as well, but the personnel on defense hasn't improved enough for me to believe they will be able to stop the run.

From there, the Saints will be able to put that new west coast passing attack to work and we should see Derek Carr and Chris Olave start connecting as they march up and down the field. The point spread isn’t big, but I do like the -185-money line in favor of New Orleans. If we can scamper out of here with a win against a soft opponent, we never have to worry about the Saints again.