We kick off Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season with a matchup straight out of the AFC North featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers making the two-hour trek across I-76 to take on the Cleveland Browns. 

The Steelers have been the class of the division this year despite the subtle quarterback controversy earlier this season. But the offense has looked better under Russell Wilson as they now sit at 8-2 and have a fighting chance to potentially earn the top seed in the AFC.

 

 

 

The Browns, on the other hand, are once again looking at a lost season with the hopes of once again drafting a franchise quarterback in the upcoming 2025 NFL Draft. But at the end of the day, it’s a short week and anything can happen in this game. 

Let’s take a look at this week’s Steelers vs. Browns DFS picks for Thursday Night Football!

Steelers vs. Browns DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 11/21

Thursday Night delivers a rather underwhelming matchup from the AFC North. The Browns haven’t been very good and it’s another year where they’re left eating millions of guaranteed money that was promised to Deshaun Watson, who suffered a season-ending injury for the second consecutive year.

Jameis Winston has filled in admirably. He’s raised the Browns pass catchers to fantasy relevance because of his passing volume, but the Browns have dropped back-to-back games amidst some defensive struggles.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are faring much better. They’re winners of five straight games, sit at 8-2 and are fresh off a crucial 18-16 win over the Baltimore Ravens. Four of their next five games are against AFC North division rivals. 

It’s also worth mentioning that four of their next five games are on the road. But we’re talking about games that are in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Philadelphia. So, none of these games call for significant travel.

But the Steelers are rolling. They’re a mix of a strong defense and an offense that can move the ball and either blow teams out like we saw against the Raiders and Jets. Or they can go out and win close, ugly games like we saw them do against the Falcons, Broncos, and last week against the Ravens. 

Thursday’s game shapes up in a way where they could, and should, get their ninth win of the season. So, let’s dig in and take a look at our Steelers vs. Browns DFS picks and lineup building strategies for the latest Thursday Night Football DFS slate.

 

 

 

Steelers vs. Browns TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Steelers -3.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Steelers (-198)
    • Browns (+164)
  • Game Total: Over 36.5 (-110) / Under 36.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Steelers -3.5 (-112)
  • Money Line:
    • Steelers (-196)
    • Browns (+164)
  • Game Total: Over 36.5 (-115) / Under 36.5 (-105)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Steelers vs. Browns TNF, November 21st 

This will be arguably the first game all year with significant elements. Temperatures will be in the low 40’s all day Thursday in Cleveland with winds between 20-30mph and gusts over 40mph. 

There’s a 50% chance of rain during the day and as we get into the evening in, we have temperatures in the high 30’s with winds dipping a little to 15-20mph. But there is a rain/snow mix in the forecast for around kickoff that will transition to just light rain later in the night. 

It’s bad enough this is a short week, and the weather is unwilling to cooperate which is standard for Cuyahoga County at this point in the year.

 

 

 

Steelers vs. Browns Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 12

As always, I will remind you all that Monday injury reports for Thursday Night Football are always estimated. Teams in this weekly game do not practice on Monday, but they are required to release an injury report. With that said we will provide updates in this article and in Discord ahead of Thursday’s game.

The Steelers injury report actually looks quite clean. Following Tuesday’s reporting it looked like Alex Highsmith, Isaac Seumalo, Cameron Heyward, and Larry Ogunjobi were DNPs, but it was for rest, which they’re entitled to at this point in their careers. Nobody carries an injury designation at this point which is a great sign for a short week of preparation.

For Cleveland, Myles Garrett is dealing with a hip injury, and he should be monitored leading up to this game. It’s expected that he’ll play but if he missed this game, for whatever reason, a bad defense would certainly get much worse. Elijah Moore has been limited with a shoulder injury and David Njoku is battling a knee issue as well. 

I expect both pass catchers to be active for this game but inactives will drop around 6:50pm ET Thursday night and we’ll know their status for certain 90 minutes before kickoff. 

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $13,500

Pickens has been a different player since Russell Wilson was named the quarterback. He seems like a safer play with each passing week now and he’s easily the top target in this offense. Against the Ravens he caught 8-of-12 targets for 89 yards. 

He had a 33.3% target share in Week 11 along with a 45.8% first-read target share which was second among all pass catchers behind only Brock Bowers. Following Week 11, only three receivers have more receiving yards than George Pickens: Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb. And given the landscape of Dallas, it wouldn’t surprise anyone of Pickens passed Lamb at some point.

The Browns allow the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers (second-most over expected according to Mike Clay of ESPN). It’s a solid matchup for Pickens given how bad the Cleveland secondary has been and how heavily targeted Pickens is.

Now we can look at Pickens from a larger scope and see that he’s been awesome and is Wilson’s favorite target. However, we do need to be mindful that these teams could run far more in this game because of the weather. I’m not going to downgrade Pickens too much as I still think he’ll see at least eight targets and we’re expecting lighter winds at night than during the day.

Jameis Winston, QB, Cleveland Browns – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $15,000

This matchup is brutal, but we also know Winston airs it out. He’s attempted 40+ pass attempts in each of his last three starts. In two of those games, he’s recorded multiple touchdowns with the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings.

But we know the Steelers have an elite defense. Last week the Steelers limited Lamar Jackson to a sub-50% completion rate and just 207 yards of offense. Only two quarterbacks all year have thrown for over 250 passing yards on Pittsburgh. 

So, Jameis will be a frustrating play. He has a ton of variance. But for a Showdown slate we can lean into the variance and get exposure at Captain and just hope he once again throws the ball over 40 times.

Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $12,000

Simply put, here’s the volume play for our TNF DFS picks. And that’s not to say Jaylen Warren won’t get work, we’ll get to him below. But Harris has touched the ball at least 16 times in every game this season. In his last four games, he’s touched the ball at least 21 times in each contest.

The overall results are fine. His efficiency has been dreadful the last couple weeks, but it’s oscillated quite a bit this year. In Weeks 6-8 he averaged 5.96 yards per carry. The last two weeks he’s down to 2.97 YPC. But he’s still getting production because of the volume, and he gets high-value touches in the red zone as all three of his touchdowns have come in his last five games. 

Yes, Taysom Hill did damage last week against the Browns and that’s a heavy outlier of a performance. But overall, the Browns have given up 120+ rushing yards to four of their last seven opponents and his workload is secure if this does play out to be a game impacted by wind/rain/snow.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $11,000

Jeudy offers salary relief off Nick Chubb on both sites. The Browns may take a run-heavy approach and Chubb had his snaps limited on Sunday specifically for this matchup on a short week. However, the matchups on the ground and through the air aren’t great for either.

I prefer targeting the Cleveland receivers because of game script and because I have a hard time paying for Chubb’s price tag given what we’ve seen from him. Since Winston took over, Jeudy has 22 catchable targets from Winston with 257 catchable air yards. More importantly, he has a 25.7% first-read target share from Winston, which leads all of the “Big Four” pass catchers on Cleveland.

Jeudy could face shadow coverage from Joey Porter which would definitely be unfortunate. But he has back-to-back games with 11 targets and at least 70 receiving yards in three straight games. I am trying to remain bullish on this Browns passing attack regardless of the weather and matchup. It’s a risky approach but there’s still volume and upside on a short week.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Play

Russell Wilson, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $15,500

He’s the most expensive player on the FanDuel slate but I’m not entirely convinced he has the highest ceiling on the board Thursday night. He correlates well with Pickens, Harris, and any other pass catcher from Pittsburgh you plug in there. But the performances have been solid, but unspectacular so I prefer using him as a flex play given the salary.

The Browns secondary has given up 240+ passing yards to four of their last five opponents. Wilson can get there with some touchdown upside. But given the implied total for this game, and the weather, Wilson strikes me more as a “floor” play in a flex spot. He’s gone over 20 fantasy points on DraftKings just once in four starts.

Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $10,500

Nailing the Browns pass catcher that can pop off is essential for our TNF DFS picks. Tillman was the one kept in check last week against the New Orleans Saints as he finished with just 7.7 PPR points. But he’s still a featured part of the offense and target distribution is still in his favor.

Tillman also carries such a large down-field threat and both Elijah Moore and David Njoku are beat up at the moment. Tillman has four straight games with at least eight targets, and with Winston under center he has 179 air yards and a 23.8% first-read target share which is better than Moore and Njoku.

From Weeks 7-9 he had three straight games with at least 75 receiving yards and if the Steelers do put Porter on Jeudy then that might open things up for Tillman as a down-field threat. According to Jacob Gibbs, Tillman may have some untapped upside as he has 207 uncatchable air yards which is almost double what Jeudy has seen.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $12,500

Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $9,000

We know there’s enough volume to go around in this passing game. The question for this particular game is if the Browns are able to throw it as much as they have been. If the game script dictates it, then weather be damned. Jameis Winston will throw against the elements.

Njoku caught all nine of his targets on Sunday for 81 yards. He has five straight games with at least seven targets. In three of his last four games, he’s posted 17+ fantasy points in PPR formats. In three games with Jameis Winston under center Njoku has performed, on average, as a top five tight end. 

Now he isn’t targeted as deep as the wide receivers in this offense and he’s dealing with a knee injury which may be difficult to play through in colder elements. But again, we have four capable pass catchers in this offense. Moore is also a little beat up as he’s battling through a shoulder injury, but he’s coming off his best game of the season. 

Moore caught six-of-eight targets against the Saints and finished with 66 yards and a touchdown. As the cheapest option of Jameis Winston’s four favorite targets, he’s a reasonable play if he’s active due to the 29 targets in his last three games. He likely avoids any coverage from Joey Porter in this matchup so that’s certainly a plus.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $9,000

The production has been brutal and I’m saying this as someone with more shares of Warren than Harris in Best Ball. However, the efficiency is coming back. Heading into the 2023 season that was the big reason why everyone wanted to see more of Warren than Najee, but Warren was injured and beat up to start the year.

He’s seen double-digit touches in each of his last four games, but it almost feels like he’s knocking on the door of a big game. In his last three games, he’s averaging 4.78 YPC with multiple receptions in each game since coming back from injury.

What’s missing are the touchdowns. He hasn’t scored at all this year, but he does have 10+ PPR points in back-to-back games. If the elements hold up, I actually don’t think Harris’ workload changes at all. I’d still say he gets over 20 touches. 

But maybe if there’s an added emphasis to run the ball more Thursday night then we could see Warren get 15 touches as well. We noted how the Browns have bled rushing yards to opposing offenses and Warren is incredibly affordable for a player who should see double-digit touches.

I will be mixing in some shares of him at Captain but not a ton. By doing so, I’m just hoping to play him with heavy volume and maybe he scores his first touchdown of the season.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $8,000

I think that given the usage of tight ends in this offense that we need to mention Darnell Washington considering the target distribution between Wash and Muth are near identical. And to his credit, Washington had a nice pair of catch-and-run efforts last week against the Ravens.

I didn’t even give Freiermuth much consideration until I saw his price tag. He’s clearly been a disappointment this year. He hasn’t seen more than three targets in a game since Week 4 and we all thought that Muth’s value would improve when Wilson took over as the starting quarterback and that just hasn’t been the case.

But the matchup is a bit skewed for tight ends because of what Taysom Hill did last week against the Browns and most of that production was as a runner. So, I don’t want to say the green “25th” for the opponent position ranking on DraftKings is accurate. But the price tag is so low that if he finds the end zone it’s likely he’s providing double-digit fantasy points.

Mike Williams, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $9,500

This play is risky for a few reasons. We obviously know George Pickens commands such a massive target share, there are weather concerns, and the Steelers could easily go for a run-heavy approach.

Williams went from the game winning touchdown in Week 10 to not really having a role (or target) in Week 11. But it is worth mentioning he’s still learning the offense as he was acquired nearly two weeks ago. 

But if we’re chasing the ceiling in this value tier among any of the receivers on Pittsburgh, Williams likely still has the most upside from a talent and size perspective. It’s just a matter of how comfortable he is with the offense now in addition to passing volume in this matchup.

Jordan Akins, TE, Cleveland Browns – DraftKings: $1,600 | FanDuel: $7,500

Assuming there were no weather concerns for this game, Akins would actually be a fun punt play on both sites. In three of his last four games, he has four targets. Obviously, that isn’t great, but again he’s dirt cheap and in this tier, you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel for any production.

Jameis Winston has been throwing it so much of late that you feel good about guys like Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Cedric Tillman, and Elijah Moore all seeing at least seven targets each week. 

But Winston throws so much that even a guy like Jordan Akins has been getting looks. On top of that, David Njoku is questionable with a knee injury and on a short week, we need to monitor inactives leading up to lineup lock for our TNF DFS picks.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

The D/ST’s will be very popular on both sides of the ball for our Steelers vs. Browns DFS picks. For starters we have a very low implied total. And the weather might be sloppy above all else. 

The Steelers will be trendy as the favorites because the Browns have an implied total of about 16.5 points and the Steelers just forced three turnovers against the Ravens last week. Moreover, Jameis Winston is on the other side of the ball and, despite the weather concerns, I still expect him to throw the ball and he’s prone to turnovers.

The Browns defense isn’t very good but even the Steelers have an implied team total of about 19.5 points. The Browns have forced just two turnovers in their last five games, and they’ve allowed every opponent, except for the Jacksonville Jaguars, to score at least 20 points. They aren’t a full fade, but I just don’t know if they have enough upside to really stall the run game for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Chris Boswell has been phenomenal but low totals don’t correlate well for kickers. And it’s not just the low total but some aggressive wind gusts as well. We’ll have a better read on the wind for this matchup when Thursday rolls around. 

But Boswell’s been outstanding with five performances of at least 14 fantasy points on the season. He’s 29-for-30 on the year and a perfect 20-for-20 with XPA’s. According to Sleeper, Boswell would rank as the RB18, WR16, and TE1 based on his production compared to those positions.

Dustin Hopkins doesn’t quite project well if we expect the Steelers to frustrate the Browns offense. Again, the weather isn’t on the side of anyone in this game. But it also doesn’t look great for Hopkins considering he’s missed a field goal in four of his last five games, and in that span he’s 4-for-8 while converting just 70% of his attempts on the year. 

Hopkins is still in play if you’re building out 4:2 or 5:1 Cleveland stacks, and that’s a good way to get contrarian. But I’d much rather play a D/ST over Hopkins in this spot.

 

 

 

Steelers vs. Browns DFS Player Pool: TNF, 11/21

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-