The 2024 NFL season kicks off Thursday night with the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens meeting in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game! That game was a bit underwhelming if we’re being honest. 

The Chiefs took a 17-7 lead into halftime and won 17-10. It was far from an offensive barn burner. But hey, football is back and we’re ready to absolutely crush our contests on DraftKings and FanDuel with our Ravens vs. Chiefs DFS picks!

 

 

 

Ravens vs. Chiefs DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 9/5

This game obviously features two of the best quarterbacks to play the game: Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. They both have been named league MVP twice although Mahomes is carrying more Super Bowl hardware than Jackson. Despite winning their second straight Super Bowl last season, the Chiefs ranked just 14th in points scored. But they do jump off the page as a team on the cusp of positive regression as they make another Super Bowl run.

For Baltimore, they saw a lot of personnel turnover on the defensive side, which I’ll elaborate on in the sections below. But they do bring in Derrick Henry to make scrambling less of a burden on Lamar Jackson, and if they can get a full season out of Mark Andrews then the offense should click on all cylinders especially with Zay Flowers entering his second year.

This is also the first time we’ll see the NFL’s new kickoff rules in effect for a game that matters. We saw a little bit of it in the preseason, but I’m of the mindset that teams really weren’t showing their hands with their formations. I anticipate a few teams like the Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Rams, and San Francisco 49ers to find creative ways to draw up elaborate designed runs for the new kickoff procedure. 

If you need a breakdown of the new rules and the strange formation(s) you’ll see Thursday night before getting into my TNF DFS picks, I recommend this article from USA Today.

 

 

 

Ravens vs. Chiefs TNF Odds At DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chiefs -3 (-102)
  • Money Line:
    • Chiefs (-148)
    • Ravens (+124)
  • Game Total: Over 46.5 (-108)/Under 46.5 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chiefs -3 (-102)
  • Money Line:
    • Chiefs (-152)
    • Ravens (+128)
  • Game Total: Over 46.5 (-115)/Under 46.5 (-105)

NFL Weather: Ravens vs. Chiefs TNF, September 5th

The weather in Kansas City looks great for a September evening. Temperatures will rise to about 88°F during the day, with mostly sunny skies creating a warm atmosphere before the game. 

When the game starts at around 8:20 PM ET, the temperature cools down to a pleasant 64°F with some clouds. A gentle breeze from the southeast will bring a slight chill, but it won't affect the game. Overall, it’s looking like a perfect night for football, with no weather issues expected!

Ravens vs. Chiefs Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 1

Both teams are mostly healthy, but a few important injuries could affect the outcome. 

For the Chiefs, wide receiver Hollywood Brown is doubtful to play because of a shoulder injury, creating a big hole in their offense. However, head coach Andy Reid believes Justin Watson can fill in. While Watson may not be as fast as Brown, he’s proven to be a dependable target. 

On the Ravens' side, they have no starters on the injury report, which is a good sign. Still, running back Rasheen Ali has a neck issue that’s been limiting him, and linebacker Adisa Isaac missed practice due to a hamstring injury.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens ($11,400 DK, $17,000 FD)

Kicking off the Ravens vs. Chiefs DFS picks, we’re going with a quarterback with plenty of rushing upside. The reigning NFL MVP leads off the top plays for the NFL season opener. Look, the back-to-back defending champs have to go through a lot of pageantry, ceremonies, and all that jazz ahead of the opener. They lost their Week 1 opener last year to the Lions under similar circumstances. The Ravens at least come in fully focused, and Jackson is fresh off his second MVP season. 

Jackson may not come with a ton of passing volume. Even last year he only had three games where he registered that precious 300-yard passing bonus on DraftKings. But we love targeting quarterbacks with rushing upside for this crucial slot when constructing lineups. Jackson totaled 821 rushing yards last year with five touchdowns, so that sort of upside is what we’re seeking out.

The Chiefs certainly kept him in check during their playoff match-up last year. But even in a rather sub-par game, Jackson still posted 20+ fantasy points on DraftKings. That sort of performance won’t be optimal at Captain, but it still provides a good floor, and he still has a 35+ point ceiling, which would be over 50 fantasy points at the captain position. 

The price tag is definitely tough to swallow, but you can build a solid lineup with savings by correlating him with Justin Tucker at the flex to hopefully open up some salary to try and fit in Patrick Mahomes as well. Thursday Night Football DFS will offer up plenty of salary saving options for you to do so.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs ($10,400 DK, $17,500 FD)

Last year saw some regression for Mahomes. 2022 was a year where he was the league MVP throwing for 5,250 yards, 41 touchdowns, and rushing for four more. Last year was a different story as he threw for just 4,183 yards, 27 touchdowns (with 14 interceptions), and zero touchdowns on the ground.

But at the end of the day the organization accomplished their goal of winning the Super Bowl and even he would tell you that’s all that matters. But as it were, last year was a very underwhelming version of the Kansas City Chiefs. They averaged just 22.2 points per game, which ranked 14th in the NFL.

All this is to say that I expect a ton of positive regression for Mahomes and his pass catchers this year. I am a little weary on Travis Kelce just given the age. But there are other weapons at Mahomes’ disposal. 

He wasn’t great against Baltimore in the playoffs, and he doesn’t quite have the rushing upside that Lamar Jackson does. However, this is still Patrick Mahomes, and he still has the upside to throw for 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns. I believe he can go out and get that bonus on DraftKings and throw for at least three touchdowns, something he hasn’t done since Week 7 of last year.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($8,400 DK, $12,500 FD)

Pacheco had a good regular season last year, but he definitely emerged as a “bell cow” running back in the postseason. In the four games during the Chiefs playoff run, Pacheco had 81 carries, 12 receptions, and three touchdowns. His running style is a bit wonky as he has zero wasted movements, but there’s volume here. And without Hollywood Brown for this game, Pacheco may have a little extra work in the passing game.

Baltimore historically has been tough to run on, but there was a massive exodus out of Baltimore on the defensive side of the ball. Patrick Queen joined the Pittsburgh Steelers. Ronald Darby and Geno Stone departed from the secondary as well. Jadeveon Clowney is also gone. And their former defensive coordinator, Mike Macdonald, is now the head coach for the Seattle Seahawks. Add in some other coaching changes and we’re looking at a defense that has some holes in it for the upcoming season.

If the Chiefs can get out to a big lead, they may just ultimately lean on the run game later on. I’m thinking Pacheco finds his way into the end zone at least once behind one of the league’s best offensive lines.

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens ($6,400 DK, $11,000 FD)

A bit risky as he dealt with some injuries last year. Hey, he even got into a mild car accident in the preseason and the Ravens held him out for a while. However, he does return and when he’s on the field he’s a target hog for Lamar Jackson. And it also helps that he’s just the ninth most expensive option on the slate. 

Last year was a career low aDOT for Andrews at just 7.3 yards but that’s generally okay because that can lead to more targets, and he still scored nine touchdowns in as many games. That red zone involvement is specifically why I’m fine utilizing him at the top of lineup constructions.

Pricing is a bit soft on this slate. On DraftKings, you can use all your salary and build a lineup of Andrews at the top, followed by Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Rashod Bateman. I don’t like giving away free lineups, but that’s one of the most popular lineups that optimizers are going to spit out.

I will also note, you will not see Zay Flowers in the player pool below. Based on what we saw last year, Flowers saw his target share drop whenever Andrews was on the field. And there are more affordable pass catchers on the Ravens we can turn to. By all means play him at your own risk. But we do need to take some stands on this slate.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs ($9,600 DK, $14,000 FD)

It feels weird not listing Kelce as a top play for these Ravens vs. Chiefs DFS picks. By all means, Kelce is 100% an elite play at full strength. And his girlfriend will probably be in attendance if I had to guess? In Kansas City’s playoff run last year he caught three touchdowns and had double-digit targets in three of the four games. Now, age is a concern because he hasn’t looked as explosive as he has in previous seasons. He’ll turn 35 in about five weeks.

But he is one of Patrick Mahomes’ favorite targets and we already touched on the personnel turnover on the defensive side of the ball for Baltimore. But it is Week 1 and by all accounts he’s good to go and will see his regular allotment of targets as the Chiefs look to make another Super Bowl run.

Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens ($9,000 DK, $14,500 FD)

Henry comes over from the Tennessee Titans and immediately inserts himself as the lead back, and one that can handle a huge workload. Henry is now 30 years old and the track record for 30-year-old running backs isn’t great. Especially one with a lot of tread on the tires.

But Henry also isn’t built like most guys at this position. He was relatively healthy in his final two years in Tennessee and has scored double-digit touchdowns in six straight seasons. Henry is a big, bruising running back that is tough to bring down and typically averages about 3.5 yards after contact per rush attempt. There’s clear touchdown equity here if the Ravens get on the goal line and don’t want to risk injury with Lamar Jackson. The Chiefs were about middle-of-the-pack last year in terms of run defense, so volume and matchup bode well for Baltimore’s RB1.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($7,600 DK, $10,000 FD)

It feels weird to not include a lot of players as top plays, and Rice is definitely one of them. It also feels like Rice is going to play most of, if not, the whole season. Any suspension could come later in the year or just be handled ahead of the 2025 season.

Once Rice became a full-time player and earned the trust of Patrick Mahomes, he began to average about 17 fantasy points per game in PPR formats. Moreover, he averaged about eight targets per game in the postseason and likely sees about a 25% target share this year as one of Mahomes’ favorite targets. He may not have had many 100-yard performances last year but entering his second year there’s room for growth. 

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,800 DK, $8,500 FD)

With Hollywood Brown missing this game, there’s a big opportunity for the Chiefs rookie receiver. Worthy set the record at the NFL Draft Combine with a 4.21 40-yard dash so he’s reminiscent of Tyreek Hill just a bit.

And try to think back to when the Chiefs offense was humming along as the best in the league a few years back. Teams couldn’t account for both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Now they go out and draft one of the fastest receivers in this draft class and he emerges as a big play threat in this matchup. In the preseason, Patrick Mahomes had 18 drop backs and Worthy was on the field for 16 of them and saw four targets.

When Brown is back, Worthy might come off the field for two-wide receiver sets. But in this game, against a great team, this kid has big play potential that could break the slate, and it also helps that the Chiefs currently list him as the team’s punt returner as of Sunday night.

Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens ($5,200 DK, $7,500 FD)

We don’t really have a ton to go off of with regard to Bateman. If you look at his game log from a year ago, he was mostly a three-target-per-week player. But Odell Beckham. is gone and if you buy into coach speak then you’ll at least like that offensive coordinator Todd Monken expects big things from Bateman this year.

He still carries the pedigree of being a former first-round pick and this really is a bit of a make-or-break year for the fourth-year receiver. Obviously, it’s far more likely that Zay Flowers is featured more. But we get a $2,800 discount on Bateman.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (TBD DK, TBD FD)

Full disclosure, he has not yet been added to DraftKings’ player pool at the time of this writing. Smith-Schuster signed with the Chiefs toward the end of August. If the Chiefs are willing to say Samaje Perine is available, then I don’t see how they don’t make Smith-Schuster available as well. 

He has familiarity with the playbook as he played for the Chiefs two years ago and was arguably Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target that year. Sure, there are more mouths to feed during Smith-Schuster’s second tenure with the team. For that reason, get some exposure to Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, and Mecole Hardman if you feel so inclined. But if I’m not paying up for Kelce, Rice, or Worthy then I’m fine pivoting to at least one of the cheaper pass catchers on this offense.

Nelson Agholor, WR, Baltimore Ravens ($3,400 DK, $6,500 FD)

I give preference to Rashod Bateman, but obviously Agholor has some appeal. It’s hard to imagine him breaking the slate because he likely needs multiple touchdowns. But he did catch five in 2023 and it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibilities that he catches five passes for maybe 30-40 yards and a score.

Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens ($2,600 DK, $8,000 FD)

Obviously, we would feel much better about this play if Mark Andrews were out. But that won’t be the case for the batch of TNF DFS picks to start the 2024 season. Starting in Week 14 and going through the playoffs, Likely caught six touchdowns last year so the trust with Lamar Jackson is certainly there. And he’s one of my favorite paydowns for Thursday Night Football DFS.

There is a part of me that thinks Baltimore could lean into 12 personnel (two-tight end sets) a little more in 2024. They were toward the bottom in 12 personnel usage last year. However, they were very efficient and successful with this formation because Baltimore was among the league best in expected points added when utilizing two tight ends. But Todd Monken does love 11 personnel (three-wide receiver sets) so this may be a pipe dream. But I’m optimistic they give Likely more looks in this formation because it worked very well for them in 2023.

Noah Gray, TE, Kansas City Chiefs ($1,600 DK, $5,500 FD)

Gray is a paydown option that doesn’t deliver much excitement. But even during the team’s postseason run a year ago he had a catch in every game including 10 targets over the team’s last three postseason outings. You’re really hitting a home run if he finds the end zone. But at $1,600 on DraftKings you just need a couple receptions and maybe 20-30 receiving yards to get your money’s worth.

If you want a real deep dive into the player pool, all the way at the bottom of DraftKings you’ll find Jared Wiley. Sure, the Chiefs just traded for Peyton Hendershot, but the Chiefs used a fourth-round pick in this year’s draft to select Wiley, who stands at 6’6”, out of TCU. He’s a bit of a raw product but he’s the bare minimum on DraftKings.

Samaje Perine, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($3,000 DK, TBD FD)

Perine was let go by the Denver Broncos when rosters were trimmed to 53 and the Chiefs scooped him up. To make matters worse they did announce that he would be available for Week 1, but as of Sunday night he had not been added to the FanDuel player pool, similar to JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Honestly, I was looking forward to listing Carson Steele as a cheap value play. The Chiefs have said they’re treating him as a fullback which isn’t very fun because the kid looked pretty good in the offseason.

Hopefully we get a little more clarity about this backfield situation, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Pacheco get a ton of run thus rendering every other running back on this team useless for Thursday Night Football DFS.

Deonte Harty, WR, Baltimore Ravens ($1,200 DK, $5,000 FD)

Rounding out the Ravens vs. Chiefs DFS picks, I’m going with a player I targeted frequently whenever he was on a Showdown slate last year. Harty comes over from the Buffalo Bills and joins the Ravens receiving room. I doubt there’s much of a ceiling here. But the good news is that he’s only $800 on DraftKings. Maybe a couple catches can push him to value. After all, he started last year with Buffalo with at least two receptions in each of the team’s first five games.

He is severely undersized at just 5’6” but he is also listed as the team’s punt and kick returner. Early on I am rather underweight on the D/ST’s, especially Baltimore’s given the defensive personnel turnover. But Harty at least has a chance to find the end zone through a special team’s touchdown.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

In previous seasons I’ve tried going in depth regarding kickers, but at the end of the day it is somewhat difficult to predict opportunity. This position correlates well with the quarterback at Captain. But even then, you need volume from this position to reach double-digit points while also hoping your Captain is the optimal play as well. 

For this game, obviously both Justin Tucker ($7,500 DK, $9,000 FD) and Harrison Butker ($6,900 DK, $9,000 FD) are in play. There is more positive correlation if you play them in the Flex with their respective quarterback at Captain.

I don’t have a great read on the defenses and special teams for these Ravens vs. Chiefs DFS picks. For this game, I prefer playing the kickers at their price tags over the defenses/special teams. If you ask me to pick one D/ST over the other, I’m leaning towards Kansas City ($5,400 DK, $8,000 FD) over Baltimore ($6,000 DK, $8,500 FD).

Ravens vs. Chiefs DFS Player Pool: TNF, 9/5

When finalizing your TNF DFS picks for Ravens vs. Chiefs, pay attention to the standout players on each team.

With Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes at the helm, expect exciting plays and a number of chances to score. Consider including top players like Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce, along with promising options like Isaiah Pacheco, to enhance your lineup. 

It's important to create a balanced team with a combination of high-scoring stars and budget-friendly choices to boost your chances of winning in this exciting Thursday night matchup, so good luck!

Player Pool

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