Thursday Night Football delivers a rather lukewarm AFC East matchup as the New England Patriots head to the Meadowlands to take on the New York Jets in what could be considered the Bill Parcells Bowl. Or maybe the Bill Belichick Bowl? He coached there long enough for a cup of coffee, after all. 

 

 

 

It’s a great rivalry and, although it’s a short week for both teams, I actually think this could be a fairly competitive game between a pair of 1-1 teams. The sportsbooks aren’t expecting a ton of offense in this game, but divisional games are always competitive, and we’ve got the Patriots vs. Jets DFS picks below.

Patriots vs. Jets DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 9/19

For our Thursday Night Football DFS preview, we get quite the matchup as both teams look to go to 2-1 on the season. The Patriots have played to the level of their opponents so far through two weeks and arguably should’ve beaten the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2. They went to overtime and ultimately lost, but they’ve been dominating time of possession so far through two games.

Jacoby Brissett doesn’t offer much in terms of fantasy upside. In fact, the TNF DFS picks are rather consolidated to just a few players on the Patriots side for this potential low scoring affair.

The New York Jets are fairly similar in that regard. A majority of the offense runs through two players: Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Aaron Rodgers certainly looks the part of a 40-year-old quarterback coming back from an Achilles tear. However, no one is expecting him to put up MVP caliber numbers like he did earlier in his career.

If he can simply distribute the ball effectively, and stay upright, the Jets offense will hum along smoothly in this matchup. New England has been great at generating long possessions, so that may impact New York’s ability to find rhythm.

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Jets TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Jets -6.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Patriots (+225)
    • Jets (-278)
  • Game Total: Over 37.5 (-110) / Under 37.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Jets -6.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Patriots (+215)
    • Jets (-260)
  • Game Total: Over 37.5 (-110) / Under 37.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Patriots vs. Jets TNF, September 19th

As of Tuesday morning, there is a 24% chance of rain Thursday night in East Rutherford, New Jersey. I’m not downgrading any of our Patriots vs. Jets DFS picks as of right now. 

The matchups are more concerning than the rain if we’re being honest. But temperatures will stick in the low-to-mid 60’s with very light winds. All in all, very cool conditions for Thursday Night Football between these two division rivals.

Patriots vs. Jets Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 3

The Patriots were dealt a heavy blow to their defense early in the week. Ja'Whaun Bentley, a player who has recorded over 100 tackles in each of the last three years, will be out for the remainder of the season with a torn pec. That’s a huge blow to this defense that traded Matthew Judon just ahead of Week 1.

Moreover, on Monday’s injury report a few of the starting offensive linemen appeared on the as well and didn’t participate in practice. David Andrews is dealing with a hip injury. Sidy Sow has been inactive for two weeks with an ankle injury sustained in the preseason. Neither player practiced Monday while Mike Onwenu, and Layden Robinson were limited participants. All in all, the Patriots are beat up on both sides of the ball and the timing couldn’t be any worse.

For the Jets, most of their injury report pertained to the defense, but I don’t believe any are serious. Linebackers Jermaine Johnson and C.J. Mosley did not practice Monday, while cornerbacks Michael Carter II and D.J. Reed were limited participants. I don’t believe New York’s vaunted secondary is at risk of being short a man.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets - DraftKings: $11,800 | FanDuel: $16,000

Hall is the most expensive option in the player pool on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the TNF DFS picks. Hall gets volume and that’s all we care about in this matchup. Through two games he has 30 carries and a dozen receptions on 14 targets. Not to mention, he’s found the end zone in each of the first two games for the Jets.

The Patriots have actually allowed a rushing touchdown to opposing running backs in each of their first two games. However, they haven’t been burned terribly in terms of rushing yardage. But Hall’s involvement in the passing game is noteworthy because Zach Charbonnet caught all five of his targets against New England last week for 31 yards. 

Hall sported a 71% route participation rate in Week 1 and then 64% in Week 2. Both times he ranked top five at the running back position. Hall’s in a smash spot after he carved up this defense to the tune of 190 total yards and a touchdown on 39(!) touches in Week 18 last year.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots - DraftKings: $11,400 | FanDuel: $15,000

Similar to Breece Hall, Stevenson has courted volume and a pair of touchdowns through two games. He’s fresh off a new contract extension and while there were concerns about his production for the 2024 NFL season, he hasn’t disappointed.

He’s mostly getting there on volume, but who cares? He’s rushed for 201 yards through two games. The big difference between Stevenson and Hall is that the latter offers more upside in the passing game. But if the Patriots have their way and can slow this pace down to keep the New York offense off the field, they’ll need to get Stevenson heavily involved.

He had a 72% route participation rate in Week 1 and 63% rate in Week 2 so that’s roughly on pace with Hall, but the Patriots aren’t as aggressive through the air as New York. But he could see 20+ touches if the game script is in his favor.

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets - DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $13,000

I’m a little surprised Wilson isn’t the second-most expensive option on both DFS providers. Even Aaron Rodgers is priced over Wilson on FanDuel, which just speaks to how the optimal lineups usually unfold over on that site.

Wilson has just 10 receptions on 17 targets through two games and he’s yet to find the end zone. This might draw more casual players to give Captain exposure to Breece Hall, and I get it. But if they’re just looking at the box score and disregarding Wilson’s actual talent then this is absolutely a spot I want to be overweight in terms of Captain exposure on Wilson.

Wilson ranks eighth among all wide receivers with a 29% target share through two games, but what I like is that he has 45% of the team’s air yards so far. The big games are going to come. Christian Gonzalez did okay covering Ja'Marr Chase in Week 1, but Chase was also limited. 

Last week, while trying to cover DK Metcalf, the star receiver for Seattle went off for 10 receptions and 129 yards and a score. Garrett Wilson can absolutely get separation in this matchup.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets - DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

I’m not particularly excited to play either quarterback at Captain. Neither really offers rushing upside, and I anticipate the DFS lineup scores to be relatively low. But we have two Jets in the top section and most of the volume and touches are consolidated to Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson.

I’m not going to write up Jacoby Brissett, but to give you an idea of what has taken place through two games, both Rodgers and Brissett have combined for 102 pass attempts, which is hilariously low. And neither quarterback has even eclipsed 200 passing yards in a game.

But I do have more faith in Rodgers because Brissett has a very tough matchup, and Rodgers has the two best weapons in this game. Despite the modest fantasy output, he still correlates well with either Hall or Wilson at Captain.

Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots - DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $11,000

This kind of feels like chasing points, right? In Week 2, Henry caught 8-of-12 targets for 108 yards. Ja'Lynn Polk was second on the team with a dozen receiving yards. 

But mind you, Henry had just two receptions on three targets in Week 1. But we still like Henry, because as Andrew Cooper has taught us, we like tight ends that can be a top two target on their team. As it stands through two weeks, Henry has a 32% target share (first among tight ends), and a 52% air yardage share (seventh among all pass catchers).

Now a lot of that production came last week so the numbers are a bit skewed. But if we’re looking for a reliable play for New England, it might just be Henry playing second fiddle to Rhamondre Stevenson. We want to avoid receivers against the Jets secondary. But tight ends running routes over the middle are still in play.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Mike Williams, WR, New York Jets - DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $9,000

The price is better on FanDuel than it is on DraftKings. The guy is frustrating, but I think this is a leverage spot. I tend to “big brain” a lot of things writing these Showdown Playbooks. Seriously, there was a moment on Monday where I thought the Atlanta Falcons could start 0-10 (which obviously is not possible anymore).

But anyway, Mike Williams is probably the WR2 in this offense in a few weeks. There is a bit of a “ramp up” period with this guy. And I fully understand there’s the negative stigma with the injuries and all that. But sometimes you need to follow the money. The Jets signed him to a one-year deal. But they also gave him $8.3 million in guaranteed money. At some point, they would like a return on investment.

In Week 1, Williams only ran six routes. In Week 2, that number went up to 24. On a short week? Maybe they get him on the field for 30. I’m the kind of guy that threw Michael Penix into a pair of my DraftKings lineups on Monday for the sake of getting contrarian. I’m more than fine playing Williams in this game and getting leverage.

We should also remember that this is a Showdown slate. I don’t care if he’s been a bust for you on your season-long teams in the past. And I likely won’t ever play him on any NFL DFS Sunday main slate. This is a Showdown slate, and we do need to take some risks if we want to win big.

Allen Lazard, WR, New York Jets - DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $9,500

I’m curious how many people take the bait with Lazard on DraftKings since he’s cheaper than Mike Williams. Lazard was the optimal play for the Showdown slate in Week 1 on Monday Night Football. At the time of kickoff for this game, the Jets will have played three games in 11 days. And Lazard is bumped up to $5,800.

It is worth mentioning that while he did score twice in Week 1, he had just two receptions on four targets for 11 yards against the Tennessee Titans in Week 2. My big concern with Lazard is that he ran 31 routes in Week 1… But 26 in Week 2. 

That’s odd when you consider Mike Williams started running more routes in Week 2. Again, follow the money. The Jets want more out of Williams. If you’re a “play it safe” kind of DFS player then Lazard is the kind of play you can plug in, but he likely carries more ownership than Williams.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Antonio Gibson, RB, New England Patriots - DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $11,500

Gibson isn’t really a value on FanDuel, but he definitely is on DraftKings. The Patriots offense is ugly. And yet, they find ways to dominate time of possession. In Week 1 against the Cincinnati Bengals, they had the ball for 34:03. In Week 2 against the Seattle Seahawks, they had the ball for 35:42. All this is to say, that time of possession correlates to how often you run the ball.

The Patriots have 75 rushing attempts through two games. It’s ugly. It’s boring. I’m a Patriots fan and I hate it. But Gibson is an affordable play, and he has 18 carries through two games. Everyone thought he’d be used more as a third-down/passing option out of the backfield, and they’ve primarily used him whenever they feel Stevenson needs a breather.

Against the Seahawks he ran the ball 11 times for 96 yards. Getting a guy who can touch the ball 8-to-10 times is incredibly valuable in this range. This could be an ugly game, but he is my favorite value option.

Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, New England Patriots - DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $8,000

Polk’s numbers so far haven’t been promising by any means. He has just three receptions on four targets for 18 yards through two games. But at least he found the end zone last week.

Polk did at least run 52 preseason routes, and he had 87 air yards with a 9.7-yard aDOT. But so far in the regular season he’s only offering up 0.45 yards per route run, which is a bit startling.

We don’t have a ton of slam dunk plays even in the mid-range for this game, so you can imagine how ugly it’s going to be when trying to find value. The biggest issue with any New England pass catcher is that they just don’t throw the ball enough. And if they do opt to air it out, another concern for any Patriots wide receiver will be the Jets secondary. 

It’s arguably the best in the league and they allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers in 2023 and so far, they’ve yielded just one touchdown to a wide receiver (Calvin Ridley) through two games. The Patriots wide receiver group isn’t scary by any means so it’s a big downgrade for a lot of New England receivers even if they are affordable.

Tyler Conklin, TE, New York Jets - DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $8,000

This will be brief because the box score hasn’t been great for Conklin through two games (two catches for 16 yards). However, Conklin had a 90% route participation rate in Week 1 (second highest at the tight end position) and was at 85% in Week 2 (fourth-highest heading into Monday Night Football).

Rodgers has utilized the tight end position in the end zone in the past. Perhaps they need to develop their chemistry, but Conklin is at least running routes. In time, the scores will come.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

As we wrap up this week’s Patriots vs. Jets DFS picks, we preview the D/ST’s and kickers. Both sides are in play for this matchup but inactives will play a big role in how much exposure we give to New England. As mentioned at the top of the Thursday Night Football DFS Showdown Playbook, Ja'Whaun Bentley is done for the year and New England is hurting on the offensive line.

So, the New York Jets D/ST is certainly in play. They have a great secondary that really limits pass catchers but are susceptible to getting beat on the ground. But with New England’s weaker offensive line, maybe they contain Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. And perhaps the most important factor is that the Jets are favored by nearly a touchdown and the Patriots have just a 15.5-point implied team total.

One correlation play I always aim for with the Sunday NFL DFS main slate is trying to correlate one of my running backs with their D/ST. There is data that supports positive correlation between the two. So, for several of my lineups where Breece Hall is the Captain, I’ll be plugging in the D/ST. And I won’t even rule out playing the Jets D/ST at Captain because this is potentially a smash spot.

Both kickers are live given the implied total. If there is minimal offense, then we’re potentially looking at both kickers to return a minimum of seven fantasy points. Greg Zuerlein will correlate well with almost any Jets player at Captain. Joey Slye gives me a little pause simply in the event of a New York Jets routing of the Patriots.

But when considering game scripts, I will go against what I normally do for a matchup like this. If building out 5:1 or 4:2 Jets stacks, then going with Jets D/ST and Zuerlein is a way to get contrarian, and I don’t think we need to spend every dollar in our salary. I typically only like playing one kicker or D/ST in a majority of my Thursday Night Football DFS lineups, but given this particular matchup, I’ll alter my strategy a bit.

 

 

 

Patriots vs. Jets DFS Player Pool: TNF, 9/19

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-